The repository serves an appendix including all statistical calculations, data manipulations, graphical representations and website content for the master thesis on crowd-based forecasting of security policy. The thesis is supervised by Prof. Mark Kayser (Hertie School of Governance) and will be the basis of aquiring the Master of Public Policy.
If you have any questions, feel free to contact me at a.sacharow(at)mpp.hertie-school.org.
A summary of the forecasting tournament and its results are available on the project website. Additional background information and methodlogical details can be access via the online appendix. For the raw data please contact the author.
| File | Content |
|---|---|
| thesis | thesis text |
| forecasts | presentation with plots of forcasts, control and demographic variables |
| main.R | script for calculating scores, testing and generating plots |
| clean.R | Script for cleaning, formating and annonymizing data |
| prep.R | Script for preparing .R |
| literature | BibTex for references (Citavi Export) |
| titlepage | Title page for the thesis |