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literature.bib
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% This file was created with Citavi 5.5.0.1
@book{.2015,
year = {2015},
title = {The Wiley Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making},
publisher = {{John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd}},
isbn = {9781118468333}
}
@misc{NationalIntelligenceCouncil.2017,
date = {2017},
title = {Global Trends: Paradox of Progress},
url = {www.dni.gov/nic/globaltrends},
urldate = {26.01.2017},
institution = {{National Intelligence Council}}
}
@book{Neumann.1944,
author = {von Neumann, John and Morgenstern, Oskar},
year = {1944},
title = {Theory of games and economic behaviour},
publisher = {{Princeton University Press}}
}
@article{Norpoth.2010,
author = {Norpoth, Helmut and Gschwend, Thomas},
year = {2010},
title = {The chancellor model: Forecasting German elections},
urldate = {14.03.2017},
pages = {42--53},
volume = {26},
number = {1},
issn = {01692070},
journal = {International Journal of Forecasting},
doi = {10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.02.008}
}
@misc{OfficeoftheUnitedNationsHighCommissionerforHumanRights.December2016,
date = {December 2016},
title = {Report on the human rights situation in Ukraine: 16 August to 15 November 2016},
urldate = {10.01.2017},
institution = {{Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights}}
}
@article{Parker.2005,
author = {Parker, Andrew M. and Fischhoff, Baruch},
year = {2005},
title = {Decision-making competence: External validation through an individual-differences approach},
pages = {1--27},
volume = {18},
number = {1},
issn = {08943257},
journal = {Journal of Behavioral Decision Making},
doi = {10.1002/bdm.481}
}
@article{Peters.2006,
abstract = {A series of four studies explored how the ability to comprehend and transform probability numbers relates to performance on judgment and decision tasks. On the surface, the tasks in the four studies appear to be widely different; at a conceptual level, however, they all involve processing numbers and the potential to show an influence of affect. Findings were consistent with highly numerate individuals being more likely to retrieve and use appropriate numerical principles, thus making themselves less susceptible to framing effects, compared with less numerate individuals. In addition, the highly numerate tended to draw different (generally stronger or more precise) affective meaning from numbers and numerical comparisons, and their affective responses were more precise. Although generally helpful, this tendency may sometimes lead to worse decisions. The less numerate were influenced more by competing, irrelevant affective considerations. Analyses showed that the effect of numeracy was not due to general intelligence. Numerical ability appears to matter to judgments and decisions in important ways.},
author = {Peters, Ellen and Vastfjall, Daniel and Slovic, Paul and Mertz, C. K. and Mazzocco, Ketti and Dickert, Stephan},
year = {2006},
title = {Numeracy and decision making},
pages = {407--413},
volume = {17},
number = {5},
issn = {0956-7976},
journal = {Psychological science},
doi = {10.1111/j.1467-9280.2006.01720.x}
}
@misc{PewResearchCenter.2012,
date = {2012},
title = {Assessing the Representativeness of Public Opinion Surveys},
url = {http://www.people-press.org/files/legacy-pdf/Assessing%20the%20Representativeness%20of%20Public%20Opinion%20Surveys.pdf},
institution = {{Pew Research Center}}
}
@article{Poore.2014,
abstract = {The decision sciences are increasingly challenged to advance methods for modeling analysts, accounting for both analytic strengths and weaknesses, to improve inferences taken from increasingly large and complex sources of data. We examine whether psychometric measures-personality, cognitive style, motivated cognition-predict analytic performance and whether psychometric measures are competitive with aptitude measures (i.e., SAT scores) as analyst sample selection criteria. A heterogeneous, national sample of 927 participants completed an extensive battery of psychometric measures and aptitude tests and was asked 129 geopolitical forecasting questions over the course of 1 year. Factor analysis reveals four dimensions among psychometric measures; dimensions characterized by differently motivated {\dq}top-down{\dq} cognitive styles predicted distinctive patterns in aptitude and forecasting behavior. These dimensions were not better predictors of forecasting accuracy than aptitude measures. However, multiple regression and mediation analysis reveals that these dimensions influenced forecasting accuracy primarily through bias in forecasting confidence. We also found that these facets were competitive with aptitude tests as forecast sampling criteria designed to mitigate biases in forecasting confidence while maximizing accuracy. These findings inform the understanding of individual difference dimensions at the intersection of analytic aptitude and demonstrate that they wield predictive power in applied, analytic domains.},
author = {Poore, Joshua C. and Forlines, Clifton L. and Miller, Sarah M. and Regan, John R. and Irvine, John M.},
year = {2014},
title = {Personality, Cognitive Style, Motivation, and Aptitude Predict Systematic Trends in Analytic Forecasting Behavior},
urldate = {13.01.2017},
pages = {374--393},
volume = {8},
number = {4},
issn = {1555-3434},
journal = {Journal of cognitive engineering and decision making},
doi = {10.1177/1555343414554702}
}
@article{Popper.1959,
author = {Popper, Karl},
year = {1959},
title = {The propensity interpretation of probability},
pages = {25--42},
volume = {10},
number = {37},
journal = {The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science},
doi = {10.1093/bjps/X.37.25}
}
@book{Popper.2009,
abstract = {{\dq}The {\dq}Mapping Foresight{\dq} report is part of a series of publications produced by the European Foresight Monitoring Network (EFMN project, 2004-2008). EFMN is a Europe-wide network inspired and financed by the European Commission within the framework of the Foresight Knowledge Sharing Platform implemented under the Research Framework Programme (FP7). The mapping activity was one of the main activities of the network. Over 2 000 initiatives were mapped between 2004 and 2008 in Europe and other world regions, including Latin America, North America, Asia and Oceania. The report is the result of the first large international effort aimed at understanding the nature of foresight practices. Foresight has become more than just a tool to support policy or strategy development in Science, Technology, and Innovation (STI). Foresight practice is the result of a systematic work to promote effective processes to proactively think about the future. These processes can be applied to a variety of research areas or knowledge domains, such as natural sciences, medical sciences, engineering and technology, agricultural sciences, social sciences, and the humanities.{\dq}--Editor.},
author = {Popper, Rafael},
year = {2009},
title = {Mapping foresight: Revealing how Europe and other world regions navigate into the future},
url = {http://www.forschungsnetzwerk.at/downloadpub/2009_efmn_mappingForesight_EU.pdf},
address = {Luxembourg},
volume = {24041},
publisher = {EUR-OP},
isbn = {978-92-79-13110-3},
series = {European Research Area. Research Policy},
institution = {{European Commission}}
}
@article{Ranjan.2010,
author = {Ranjan, Roopesh and Gneiting, Tilmann},
year = {2010},
title = {Combining probability forecasts},
pages = {71--91},
volume = {72},
number = {1},
issn = {13697412},
journal = {Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology)},
doi = {10.1111/j.1467-9868.2009.00726.x}
}
@article{Ree.1992,
author = {Ree, Malcolm James and Earles, James A.},
year = {1992},
title = {Intelligence Is the Best Predictor of Job Performance},
pages = {86--89},
volume = {1},
number = {3},
issn = {0963-7214},
journal = {Current Directions in Psychological Science},
doi = {10.1111/1467-8721.ep10768746}
}
@article{Rest.1999,
author = {Rest, James and Narvaez, Darcia and Thoma, Stephen and Bebeau, Muriel},
year = {1999},
title = {DIT2: Devising and Testing a Revised Instrument of Moral Judgment},
urldate = {23.01.2017},
pages = {644--659},
volume = {91},
number = {4},
journal = {Journal of Educational Psychology}
}
@article{Reyna.2014,
abstract = {Intelligence agents make risky decisions routinely, with serious consequences for national security. Although common sense and most theories imply that experienced intelligence professionals should be less prone to irrational inconsistencies than college students, we show the opposite. Moreover, the growth of experience-based intuition predicts this developmental reversal. We presented intelligence agents, college students, and postcollege adults with 30 risky-choice problems in gain and loss frames and then compared the three groups' decisions. The agents not only exhibited larger framing biases than the students, but also were more confident in their decisions. The postcollege adults (who were selected to be similar to the students) occupied an interesting middle ground, being generally as biased as the students (sometimes more biased) but less biased than the agents. An experimental manipulation testing an explanation for these effects, derived from fuzzy-trace theory, made the students look as biased as the agents. These results show that, although framing biases are irrational (because equivalent outcomes are treated differently), they are the ironical output of cognitively advanced mechanisms of meaning making.},
author = {Reyna, Valerie F. and Chick, Christina F. and Corbin, Jonathan C. and Hsia, Andrew N.},
year = {2014},
title = {Developmental reversals in risky decision making: intelligence agents show larger decision biases than college students},
keywords = {Adolescent;Adult;Decision Making/physiology;Female;Humans;Male;Middle Aged;Risk-Taking;Students/psychology;United States;United States Government Agencies;Universities;Young Adult},
urldate = {11.01.2017},
pages = {76--84},
volume = {25},
number = {1},
issn = {0956-7976},
journal = {Psychological science},
doi = {10.1177/0956797613497022}
}
@article{Rubenstein.1994,
author = {Rubenstein, Mark},
year = {1994},
title = {Implied Binomial Trees},
pages = {771--818},
volume = {49},
number = {3},
issn = {00221082},
journal = {The Journal of Finance},
doi = {10.1111/j.1540-6261.1994.tb00079.x}
}
@article{Murr.2016,
author = {Murr, Andreas Erwin},
year = {2016},
title = {The wisdom of crowds: What do citizens forecast for the 2015 British General Election?},
pages = {283--288},
volume = {41},
issn = {02613794},
journal = {Electoral Studies},
doi = {10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.018}
}
@article{Murr.2011,
abstract = {Electoral Studies, 30 (2011) 771-783. doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2011.07.005},
author = {Murr, Andreas Erwin},
year = {2011},
title = {``Wisdom of crowds''? A decentralised election forecasting model that uses citizens' local expectations},
keywords = {British election;Citizen forecasting;Election forecasting;Expectations model;Wisdom of crowds},
urldate = {26.03.2017},
pages = {771--783},
volume = {30},
number = {4},
issn = {02613794},
journal = {Electoral Studies},
doi = {10.1016/j.electstud.2011.07.005}
}
@article{Moore.2016,
abstract = {Management Science 0.0:null-null},
author = {Moore, Don and Swift, Samuel and Minster, Angela and Mellers, Barbara and Ungar, Lyle and Tetlock, Philip and Yang, Heather H. J. and Tenney, Elizabeth R.},
year = {2016},
title = {Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition},
keywords = {confidence;confidence,overconfidence,forecasting,prediction;Forecasting;overconfidence;prediction},
urldate = {29.10.2016},
issn = {0025-1909},
journal = {Management Science},
doi = {10.1287/mnsc.2016.2525}
}
@article{Merkle.2016,
author = {Merkle, Edgar and Steyvers, Mark and Mellers, Barbara and Tetlock, Philip E.},
year = {2016},
title = {Item response models of probability judgments: Application to a geopolitical forecasting tournament},
urldate = {29.10.2016},
pages = {1--19},
volume = {3},
number = {1},
issn = {2325-9973},
journal = {Decision},
doi = {10.1037/dec0000032}
}
@book{Kosow.2008,
author = {Kosow, Hannah and Erdmann, Lorenz and Ga{\ss}ner, Robert and Luber, Beate-Josephine},
year = {2008},
title = {Methoden der Zukunfts- und Szenarioanalyse: {\"U}berblick, Bewertung und Auswahlkriterien},
url = {https://www.izt.de/fileadmin/publikationen/IZT_WB103.pdf},
address = {Berlin},
volume = {103},
publisher = {IZT},
isbn = {978-3-941374-03-4},
series = {WerkstattBericht / IZT, Institut f{\"u}r Zukunftsstudien und Technologiebewertung}
}
@phdthesis{Kretz.2015,
author = {Kretz, Donald},
year = {2015},
title = {Strategies to reduce cognitive bias in intelligence analysis: Can mild interventions improve analytic judgment?},
urldate = {13.01.2017},
school = {{The University of Texas at Dallas}},
type = {PhD Thesis}
}
@article{Kruglanski.1996,
author = {Kruglanski, Arie and Webster, Donna},
year = {1996},
title = {Motivated Closing of the Mind: {\dq}Seizing{\dq} and {\dq}Freezing{\dq}},
urldate = {11.01.2017},
pages = {263--283},
volume = {103},
number = {2},
journal = {Psychological Review}
}
@book{Krystek.1993,
author = {Krystek, Ulrich},
year = {1993},
title = {Fr{\"u}haufkl{\"a}rung f{\"u}r Unternehmen: Identifikation und Handhabung zuk{\"u}nftiger Chancen und Bedrohungen},
address = {Stuttgart},
publisher = {Sch{\"a}ffer-Poeschel},
isbn = {978-3791006390}
}
@incollection{Larrick.2004,
author = {Larrick, Richard P.},
title = {Debiasing},
pages = {316--338},
publisher = {{Blackwell Publishing Ltd}},
isbn = {9780470752937},
editor = {Koehler, Derek J. and Harvey, Nigel},
booktitle = {Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making},
year = {2004},
address = {Malden, MA, USA},
doi = {10.1002/9780470752937.ch16}
}
@article{Lazer.2014,
author = {Lazer, David and Kennedy, Ryan and King, Gary and Vespignani, Alessandro},
year = {2014},
title = {Big data. The parable of Google Flu: Traps in big data analysis},
pages = {1203--1205},
volume = {343},
number = {6176},
journal = {Science},
doi = {10.1126/science.1248506}
}
@book{Lepkowski.2007,
year = {2007},
title = {Advances in Telephone Survey Methodology},
address = {Hoboken, NJ, USA},
publisher = {{John Wiley {\&} Sons, Inc}},
isbn = {9780470173404},
editor = {Lepkowski, James M. and Tucker, Clyde and Brick, J. Michael and Leeuw, Edith D. de and Japec, Lilli and Lavrakas, Paul J. and Link, Michael W. and Sangster, Roberta L.},
doi = {10.1002/9780470173404}
}
@article{Saffo.JulyAugust2007,
author = {Saffo, Paul},
year = {July-August 2007},
title = {Six Rules for Effective Forecasting},
url = {https://hbr.org/2007/07/six-rules-for-effective-forecasting},
journal = {Harvard Business Review}
}
@article{LewisBeck.2005,
author = {Lewis-Beck, Michael},
year = {2005},
title = {Election Forecasting: Principles and Practice},
url = {10.1111/j.1467-856X.2005.00178.x},
pages = {145--164},
volume = {7},
journal = {British Journal of Politics and International Relations}
}
@article{Lipkus.2001,
abstract = {BACKGROUND: Numeracy, how facile people are with basic probability and mathematical concepts, is associated with how people perceive health risks. Performance on simple numeracy problems has been poor among populations with little as well as more formal education. Here, we examine how highly educated participants performed on a general and an expanded numeracy scale. The latter was designed within the context of health risks. METHOD: A total of 463 men and women aged 40 and older completed a 3-item general and an expanded 7-item numeracy scale. The expanded scale assessed how well people 1) differentiate and perform simple mathematical operations on risk magnitudes using percentages and proportions, 2) convert percentages to proportions, 3) convert proportions to percentages, and 4) convert probabilities to proportions. RESULTS: On average, 18{\%} and 32{\%} of participants correctly answered all of the general and expanded numeracy scale items, respectively. Approximately 16{\%} to 20{\%} incorrectly answered the most straightforward questions pertaining to risk magnitudes (e.g., Which represents the larger risk: 1{\%}, 5{\%}, or 10{\%}?). A factor analysis revealed that the general and expanded risk numeracy items tapped the construct of global numeracy. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that even highly educated participants have difficulty with relatively simple numeracy questions, thus replicating in part earlier studies. The implication is that usual strategies for communicating numerical risk may be flawed. Methods and consequences of communicating health risk information tailored to a person's level of numeracy should be explored further.},
author = {Lipkus, I. M. and Samsa, G. and Rimer, B. K.},
year = {2001},
title = {General performance on a numeracy scale among highly educated samples},
pages = {37--44},
volume = {21},
number = {1},
issn = {0272-989X},
journal = {Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making},
doi = {10.1177/0272989X0102100105}
}
@book{Lohr.2010,
author = {Lohr, Sharon},
year = {2010},
title = {Sampling: Design and Analysis},
urldate = {12.04.2017},
publisher = {Brooks/Cole},
isbn = {978-0-495-10527-5}
}
@article{Lovallo.2012,
author = {Lovallo, Dan and Clarke, Carmina and Camerer, Colin},
year = {2012},
title = {Robust analogizing and the outside view: Two empirical tests of case-based decision making},
pages = {496--512},
volume = {33},
number = {5},
journal = {Strategic Management Journal},
doi = {10.1002/smj.962}
}
@book{McGrayne.2011,
author = {McGrayne, Sharon Bertsch},
year = {2011},
title = {The theory that would not die: How Bayes' rule cracked the enigma code, hunted down Russian submarines, {\&} emerged triumphant from two centuries of controversy},
price = {{\pounds}18.99},
publisher = {{Yale University Press}},
isbn = {9780300169690}
}
@article{Mellers.2015,
abstract = {This article extends psychological methods and concepts into a domain that is as profoundly consequential as it is poorly understood: intelligence analysis. We report findings from a geopolitical forecasting tournament that assessed the accuracy of more than 150,000 forecasts of 743 participants on 199 events occurring over 2 years. Participants were above average in intelligence and political knowledge relative to the general population. Individual differences in performance emerged, and forecasting skills were surprisingly consistent over time. Key predictors were (a) dispositional variables of cognitive ability, political knowledge, and open-mindedness; (b) situational variables of training in probabilistic reasoning and participation in collaborative teams that shared information and discussed rationales (Mellers, Ungar, et al., 2014); and (c) behavioral variables of deliberation time and frequency of belief updating. We developed a profile of the best forecasters; they were better at inductive reasoning, pattern detection, cognitive flexibility, and open-mindedness. They had greater understanding of geopolitics, training in probabilistic reasoning, and opportunities to succeed in cognitively enriched team environments. Last but not least, they viewed forecasting as a skill that required deliberate practice, sustained effort, and constant monitoring of current affairs.},
author = {Mellers, Barbara and Stone, Eric and Atanasov, Pavel and Rohrbaugh, Nick and Metz, S. Emlen and Ungar, Lyle and Bishop, Michael M. and Horowitz, Michael and Merkle, Ed and Tetlock, Philip},
year = {2015},
title = {The psychology of intelligence analysis: drivers of prediction accuracy in world politics},
keywords = {Adult;Female;Forecasting;Humans;Intelligence;Judgment;Male;Models, Statistical;Politics;Probability;Psychological Techniques},
urldate = {11.01.2017},
pages = {1--14},
volume = {21},
number = {1},
issn = {1076-898X},
journal = {Journal of experimental psychology. Applied},
doi = {10.1037/xap0000040}
}
@article{Mellers.2014,
abstract = {Five university-based research groups competed to recruit forecasters, elicit their predictions, and aggregate those predictions to assign the most accurate probabilities to events in a 2-year geopolitical forecasting tournament. Our group tested and found support for three psychological drivers of accuracy: training, teaming, and tracking. Probability training corrected cognitive biases, encouraged forecasters to use reference classes, and provided forecasters with heuristics, such as averaging when multiple estimates were available. Teaming allowed forecasters to share information and discuss the rationales behind their beliefs. Tracking placed the highest performers (top 2{\%} from Year 1) in elite teams that worked together. Results showed that probability training, team collaboration, and tracking improved both calibration and resolution. Forecasting is often viewed as a statistical problem, but forecasts can be improved with behavioral interventions. Training, teaming, and tracking are psychological interventions that dramatically increased the accuracy of forecasts. Statistical algorithms (reported elsewhere) improved the accuracy of the aggregation. Putting both statistics and psychology to work produced the best forecasts 2 years in a row.},
author = {Mellers, Barbara and Ungar, Lyle and Baron, Jonathan and Ramos, Jaime and Gurcay, Burcu and Fincher, Katrina and Scott, Sydney E. and Moore, Don and Atanasov, Pavel and Swift, Samuel A. and Murray, Terry and Stone, Eric and Tetlock, Philip E.},
year = {2014},
title = {Psychological strategies for winning a geopolitical forecasting tournament},
keywords = {Adult;Algorithms;Bias (Epidemiology);Female;Forecasting;Humans;Interpersonal Relations;Judgment;Male;Probability;Psychological Techniques/education;Social Behavior},
urldate = {29.10.2016},
pages = {1106--1115},
volume = {25},
number = {5},
issn = {0956-7976},
journal = {Psychological science},
doi = {10.1177/0956797614524255}
}
@article{Mellon.2015,
author = {Mellon, Jonathan and Prosser, Chris},
year = {2015},
title = {Investigating the Great British Polling Miss: Evidence from the British Election Study},
issn = {1556-5068},
journal = {SSRN Electronic Journal},
doi = {10.2139/ssrn.2631165}
}
@incollection{Lind.2008,
author = {Lind, Georg},
title = {The meaning and measurement of moral judgment competence: A dual-aspect model},
urldate = {23.01.2017},
pages = {185--220},
publisher = {{Hampton Press}},
isbn = {9781572737228},
series = {Critical education and ethics},
editor = {Fasko, Daniel and Willis, Wayne},
booktitle = {Contemporary philosophical and psychological perspectives on moral development and education},
year = {2008},
address = {Cresskill, N.J.}
}
@article{Koriat.1980,
author = {Koriat, Asher and Lichtenstein, Sarah and Fischhoff, Baruch},
year = {1980},
title = {Reasons for confidence},
pages = {107--118},
volume = {6},
number = {2},
issn = {0096-1515},
journal = {Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning {\&} Memory},
doi = {10.1037/0278-7393.6.2.107}
}
@misc{Satopaa.2015,
author = {Satop{\"a}{\"a}, Ville and Jensen, Shane and Pemantle, Robin and Ungar, Lyle},
date = {2015},
title = {Partial Information Framework: Aggregating Estimates from Diverse Information Sources},
url = {https://www.math.upenn.edu/~pemantle/papers/Preprints/PIF.pdf},
urldate = {14.04.2017},
series = {Preprint}
}
@misc{Satopaa.2015b,
abstract = {The weighted average is by far the most popular approach to combining multiple forecasts of some future outcome. This paper shows that both for probability or real-valued forecasts, a non-trivial weighted average of different forecasts is always sub-optimal. More specifically, it is not consistent with any set of information about the future outcome even if the individual forecasts are. Furthermore, weighted averaging does not behave as if it collects information from the forecasters and hence needs to be extremized, that is, systematically transformed away from the marginal mean. This paper proposes a linear extremization technique for improving the weighted average of real-valued forecasts. The resulting more extreme version of the weighted average exhibits many properties of optimal aggregation. Both this and the sub-optimality of the weighted average are illustrated with simple examples involving synthetic and real-world data.},
author = {Satop{\"a}{\"a}, Ville and Ungar, Lyle},
date = {2015},
title = {Combining and Extremizing Real-Valued Forecasts},
url = {https://arxiv.org/pdf/1506.06405.pdf},
keywords = {Statistics - Methodology},
urldate = {14.04.2017}
}
@book{Taleb.2010,
abstract = {Examines the role of the unexpected, discussing why improbable events are not anticipated or understood properly, and how humans rationalize the black swan phenomenon to make it appear less random.},
author = {Taleb, Nassim Nicholas},
year = {2010},
title = {The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable},
publisher = {{Random House Trade Paperbacks}},
isbn = {9780812973815}
}
@article{Tetlock.1998,
author = {Tetlock, Philip},
year = {1998},
title = {Close-Call Counterfactuals and Belief-System Defenses: I Was Not Almost Wrong But I Was Almost Right},
urldate = {11.01.2017},
pages = {639--652},
volume = {75},
number = {3},
issn = {1939-1315},
journal = {Journal of Personality and Social Psychology}
}
@book{Tetlock.2005,
author = {Tetlock, Philip},
year = {2005},
title = {Expert Political Judgment: How good is it? How can we know?},
urldate = {29.10.2016},
publisher = {{Princeton University Press}}
}
@book{Tetlock.2015,
author = {Tetlock, Philip and Gardner, Dan},
year = {2015},
title = {Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction},
publisher = {Crown},
isbn = {978-0804136693}
}
@book{Tetlock.1996,
author = {Tetlock, Philip E. and Belkin, Aaron},
year = {1996},
title = {Counterfactual thought experiments in world politics: Logical, methodological, and psychological perspectives},
price = {No price},
publisher = {{Princeton University Press}},
isbn = {9780691027913}
}
@article{Thaler.1988,
author = {Thaler, Richard H. and Ziemba, William T.},
year = {1988},
title = {Anomalies: Parimutuel Betting Markets: Racetracks and Lotteries},
pages = {161--174},
volume = {2},
number = {2},
issn = {0895-3309},
journal = {Journal of Economic Perspectives},
doi = {10.1257/jep.2.2.161}
}
@misc{TheGoodJudgementOpen.,
title = {Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)},
url = {https://www.gjopen.com/faq}
}
@article{Wallsten.1997,
author = {Wallsten, Thomas S. and Budescu, David V. and Erev, I. and Diederich, Adele},
year = {1997},
title = {Evaluating and Combining Subjective Probability Estimates},
pages = {243--268},
volume = {10},
number = {3},
journal = {Journal of Behavioral Decision Making},
doi = {10.1002/(SICI)1099-0771(199709)10:3{\textless}243::AID-BDM268{\textgreater}3.0.CO;2-M}
}
@article{Wang.2015,
abstract = {International Journal of Forecasting, Corrected proof. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.06.001},
author = {Wang, Wei and Rothschild, David and Goel, Sharad and Gelman, Andrew},
year = {2015},
title = {Forecasting elections with non-representative polls},
keywords = {Election forecasting;Multilevel regression and poststratification;Non-representative polling},
urldate = {01.04.2017},
pages = {980--991},
volume = {31},
number = {3},
issn = {01692070},
journal = {International Journal of Forecasting},
doi = {10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.06.001}
}
@article{Ward.2016,
author = {Ward, Michael},
year = {2016},
title = {Can We Predict Politics? Toward What End?: Table 1},
urldate = {11.03.2017},
pages = {80--91},
volume = {1},
number = {1},
issn = {2057-3170},
journal = {Journal of Global Security Studies},
doi = {10.1093/jogss/ogv002}
}
@article{Ward.2010,
author = {Ward, Michael and Greenhill, Brian and Bakke, Kristin},
year = {2010},
title = {The perils of policy by p-value: Predicting civil conflicts},
urldate = {08.11.2016},
pages = {363--375},
volume = {47},
number = {4},
issn = {0022-3433},
journal = {Journal of Peace Research},
doi = {10.1177/0022343309356491}
}
@article{Webster.1994,
author = {Webster, Donna M. and Kruglanski, Arie W.},
year = {1994},
title = {Individual differences in need for cognitive closure},
pages = {1049--1062},
volume = {67},
number = {6},
issn = {1939-1315},
journal = {Journal of Personality and Social Psychology},
doi = {10.1037/0022-3514.67.6.1049}
}
@article{Wilson.2005,
author = {Wilson, Timothy and Gilbert, Daniel},
year = {2005},
title = {Affective Forecasting: Knowing What to Want},
urldate = {10.03.2017},
pages = {131--134},
volume = {14},
number = {3},
issn = {0963-7214},
journal = {Current Directions in Psychological Science}
}
@article{Wolfers.2004,
author = {Wolfers, Justin and Zitzewitz, Eric},
year = {2004},
title = {Prediction Markets},
pages = {107--126},
volume = {18},
number = {2},
issn = {0895-3309},
journal = {Journal of Economic Perspectives},
doi = {10.1257/0895330041371321}
}
@article{Yeager.2011,
author = {Yeager, D. S. and Krosnick, J. A. and Chang, L. and Javitz, H. S. and Levendusky, M. S. and Simpser, A. and Wang, R.},
year = {2011},
title = {Comparing the Accuracy of RDD Telephone Surveys and Internet Surveys Conducted with Probability and Non-Probability Samples},
pages = {709--747},
volume = {75},
number = {4},
journal = {Public Opinion Quarterly},
doi = {10.1093/poq/nfr020}
}
@article{Taleb.2007,
author = {Taleb, Nassim Nicholas},
year = {2007},
title = {Black Swans and the Domains of Statistics},
urldate = {11.01.2017},
pages = {198--200},
volume = {61},
number = {3},
issn = {0003-1305},
journal = {The American Statistician},
doi = {10.1198/000313007X219996}
}
@article{Swets.2000,
author = {Swets, J. A. and Dawes, R. M. and Monahan, J.},
year = {2000},
title = {Psychological Science Can Improve Diagnostic Decisions},
pages = {1--26},
volume = {1},
number = {1},
issn = {1529-1006},
journal = {Psychological science in the public interest : a journal of the American Psychological Society},
doi = {10.1111/1529-1006.001}
}
@book{Subrahmanian.2013,
year = {2013},
title = {Handbook of Computational Approaches to Counterterrorism},
address = {New York},
publisher = {Springer},
isbn = {978-1-4614-5311-6},
editor = {Subrahmanian, V. S.}
}
@article{Strenze.2007,
author = {Strenze, Tarmo},
year = {2007},
title = {Intelligence and socioeconomic success: A meta-analytic review of longitudinal research},
pages = {401--426},
volume = {35},
number = {5},
issn = {01602896},
journal = {Intelligence},
doi = {10.1016/j.intell.2006.09.004}
}
@article{Satopaa.2014,
abstract = {International Journal of Forecasting, 30 (2014) 344-356. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.09.009},
author = {Satop{\"a}{\"a}, Ville A. and Baron, Jonathan and Foster, Dean P. and Mellers, Barbara A. and Tetlock, Philip E. and Ungar, Lyle H.},
year = {2014},
title = {Combining multiple probability predictions using a simple logit model},
keywords = {Combining forecasts;Error correction models;Expert forecasts;Logit-normal models;Multinomial events;Probability forecasting},
urldate = {29.10.2016},
pages = {344--356},
volume = {30},
number = {2},
issn = {01692070},
journal = {International Journal of Forecasting},
doi = {10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.09.009}
}
@article{Satopaa.2014b,
author = {Satop{\"a}{\"a}, Ville A. and Jensen, Shane T. and Mellers, Barbara A. and Tetlock, Philip E. and Ungar, Lyle H.},
year = {2014},
title = {Probability aggregation in time-series: Dynamic hierarchical modeling of sparse expert beliefs},
pages = {1256--1280},
volume = {8},
number = {2},
issn = {1932-6157},
journal = {The Annals of Applied Statistics},
doi = {10.1214/14-AOAS739}
}
@book{Savage.1972,
author = {Savage, Leonard J.},
year = {1972},
title = {The foundations of statistics},
url = {http://www.loc.gov/catdir/description/dover032/79188245.html},
edition = {2d rev. ed.},
publisher = {{Dover Publiations}},
isbn = {0486623491}
}
@article{Schkade.1998,
author = {Schkade, D. A. and Kahneman, D.},
year = {1998},
title = {Does Living in California Make People Happy? A Focusing Illusion in Judgments of Life Satisfaction},
pages = {340--346},
volume = {9},
number = {5},
issn = {0956-7976},
journal = {Psychological science},
doi = {10.1111/1467-9280.00066}
}
@article{Schmidt.2004,
abstract = {The psychological construct of general mental ability (GMA), introduced by C. Spearman (1904) nearly 100 years ago, has enjoyed a resurgence of interest and attention in recent decades. This article presents the research evidence that GMA predicts both occupational level attained and performance within one's chosen occupation and does so better than any other ability, trait, or disposition and better than job experience. The sizes of these relationships with GMA are also larger than most found in psychological research. Evidence is presented that weighted combinations of specific aptitudes tailored to individual jobs do not predict job performance better than GMA alone, disconfirming specific aptitude theory. A theory of job performance is described that explicates the central role of GMA in the world of work. These findings support Spearman's proposition that GMA is of critical importance in human affairs.},
author = {Schmidt, Frank L. and Hunter, John},
year = {2004},
title = {General mental ability in the world of work: occupational attainment and job performance},
pages = {162--173},
volume = {86},
number = {1},
issn = {1939-1315},
journal = {Journal of Personality and Social Psychology},
doi = {10.1037/0022-3514.86.1.162}
}
@article{Schneider.2011,
author = {Schneider, Gerald and Gleditsch, Nils and Carey, Sabine},
year = {2011},
title = {Forecasting in International Relations: One Quest, Three Approaches},
urldate = {13.11.2016},
pages = {5--14},
journal = {Conflict Management and Peace Science}
}
@article{Schrodt.2014,
author = {Schrodt, Philip},
year = {2014},
title = {Seven deadly sins of contemporary quantitative political analysis},
urldate = {08.11.2016},
pages = {287--300},
volume = {51},
number = {2},
issn = {0022-3433},
journal = {Journal of Peace Research},
doi = {10.1177/0022343313499597}
}
@article{Satopaa.2017,
author = {Satop{\"a}{\"a}, Ville and Pemantle, Robin and Ungar, Lyle},
year = {2017},
title = {Combining Probability Forecasts and Understanding Probability Extremizing through Information Diversity},
url = {https://www.math.upenn.edu/~pemantle/papers/Preprints/aggregation.pdf},
urldate = {14.04.2017},
pages = {to appear},
journal = {Journal of the American Statistical Association}
}
@incollection{Schrodt.2013,
author = {Schrodt, Philip and Yonamine, James and Bagozzi, Benjamin},
title = {Data-based Computational Approaches to Forecasting Political Violence},
urldate = {13.11.2016},
pages = {129--162},
publisher = {Springer},
isbn = {978-1-4614-5311-6},
editor = {Subrahmanian, V. S.},
booktitle = {Handbook of Computational Approaches to Counterterrorism},
year = {2013},
address = {New York},
doi = {10.1007/978-1-4614-5311-6}
}
@book{Shaw.2012,
abstract = {{\dq}Providing new students and practitioners with an easy-to-understand introduction to the theory and practice an often complicated subject, Introduction to Polymer Rheology incorporates worked problems and problems with appended answers to provide opportunities for review and further learning of more advanced concepts. By limiting the use of mathematics within an approachable format, this introductory overview ensures practicing scientists and engineers understand the concepts underlying the flow behavior of polymer melts, solutions, and suspensions, and are able to interpret experimental data correctly and provide additional insight on a process.{\dq}--
{$\backslash$dq}The book ensures readers understand the concepts underlying the flow behavior of polymer melts, solutions and suspensions, and are able to interpret experimental data correctly and provide additional insight on a process. Eleven chapters include the following topics: introduction, stress, velocity and rate of deformation, relationship between stress and rate of deformation (Newtonian fluid), generalized Newtonian fluids, normal stresses and ordinary behavior for polymers, experimental methods, strain, the molecular origins of rheological behavior, elementary polymer processing concepts, quality control in rheology, and the flow of modified polymers and those with supermolecular structures.{\dq}--},
year = {2012},
title = {Introduction to polymer rheology},
keywords = {Polymers;TECHNOLOGY {\&} ENGINEERING},
address = {Hoboken, N.J.},
publisher = {Wiley},
isbn = {9781118170229},
editor = {Shaw, Montgomery T.},
doi = {10.1002/9781118170229}
}
@book{Silver.2012,
abstract = {The author has built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and has become a national sensation as a blogger. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, he examines the world of prediction.
Human beings have to make plans and strategize for the future. As the pace of our lives becomes faster and faster, we have to do so more often and more quickly. But are our predictions any good? Is there hope for improvement? In this book the author examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy, ever-increasing data. Many predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. We are wired to detect a signal, and we mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the prediction paradox: the more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, and the more we are willing to learn from our mistakes, the more we can turn information into knowledge and data into foresight. The author examines both successes and failures to determine what more accurate forecasters have in common. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, he visits innovative forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. Even when their innovations are modest, we can learn from their methods. How can we train ourselves to think probabilistically, as they do? How can the insights of an eighteenth-century Englishman unlock the twenty-first-century challenges of global warming and terrorism? How can being smarter about the future help us make better decisions in the present?},
author = {Silver, Nate},
year = {2012},
title = {The signal and the noise: Why so many predictions fail--but some don't},
keywords = {Bayes-Entscheidungstheorie;Bayesian statistical decision theory;Forecasting;Knowledge, Theory of;Prognose},
publisher = {{Penguin Press}},
isbn = {0143125087}
}
@article{Skibba.2016,
author = {Skibba, Ramin},
year = {2016},
title = {The polling crisis: How to tell what people really think},
keywords = {Bias (Epidemiology);Canada;Cell Phones/economics/utilization;Continental Population Groups/statistics {\&} numerical data;Data Collection/methods/standards;Datasets as Topic;Demography/statistics {\&} numerical data;Educational Status;Female;Humans;Internet/economics/utilization;Male;Politics;Public Opinion;Surveys and Questionnaires/economics/standards;Uncertainty;United Kingdom;United States},
urldate = {01.04.2017},
pages = {304--306},
volume = {538},
number = {7625},
journal = {Nature},
doi = {10.1038/538304a}
}
@book{Slovic.2000,
author = {Slovic, Paul},
year = {2000},
title = {The perception of risk},
price = {{\pounds}55.00},
publisher = {{Earthscan Pub}},
isbn = {978-1853835285},
series = {Risk, society, and policy series}
}
@incollection{Soll.2015,
author = {Soll, Jack B. and Milkman, Katherine L. and Payne, John W.},
title = {A User's Guide to Debiasing},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118468333.ch33},
keywords = {coherence-based biases;correspondence-based biases;debiasing techniques;Decision Making;decision making bias;decision readiness;Judgment},
pages = {924--951},
publisher = {{John Wiley {\&} Sons, Ltd}},
isbn = {9781118468333},
booktitle = {The Wiley Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making},
year = {2015},
doi = {10.1002/9781118468333.ch33}
}
@article{Squire.1988,
author = {Squire, Peverill},
year = {1988},
title = {Why the 1936 Literary Digest Poll Failed},
url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2749114},
urldate = {01.04.2017},
pages = {125--133},
volume = {52},
number = {1},
issn = {15375331},
journal = {The Public Opinion Quarterly}
}
@misc{StiftungNeueVerantwortung.2013,
date = {2013},
title = {Denken auf Vorrat -- Strategische Vorausschau macht Deutschland fit f{\"u}r die Zukunft},
urldate = {08.02.2017},
series = {Policy Brief},
institution = {{Stiftung Neue Verantwortung}}
}
@article{Shanteau.1992,
author = {Shanteau, James},
year = {1992},
title = {Competence in Experts: The Role of Task Characteristics},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/0749-5978(92)90064-E},
urldate = {11.01.2017},
pages = {252--266},
volume = {53},
journal = {Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes}
}
@article{Zhang.2012,
abstract = {In decision from experience, the source of probability information affects how probability is distorted in the decision task. Understanding how and why probability is distorted is a key issue in understanding the peculiar character of experience-based decision. We consider how probability information is used not just in decision-making but also in a wide variety of cognitive, perceptual, and motor tasks. Very similar patterns of distortion of probability/frequency information have been found in visual frequency estimation, frequency estimation based on memory, signal detection theory, and in the use of probability information in decision-making under risk and uncertainty. We show that distortion of probability in all cases is well captured as linear transformations of the log odds of frequency and/or probability, a model with a slope parameter, and an intercept parameter. We then consider how task and experience influence these two parameters and the resulting distortion of probability. We review how the probability distortions change in systematic ways with task and report three experiments on frequency distortion where the distortions change systematically in the same task. We found that the slope of frequency distortions decreases with the sample size, which is echoed by findings in decision from experience. We review previous models of the representation of uncertainty and find that none can account for the empirical findings.},
author = {Zhang, Hang and Maloney, Laurence T.},
year = {2012},
title = {Ubiquitous log odds: A common representation of probability and frequency distortion in perception, action, and cognition},
pages = {1},
volume = {6},
journal = {Frontiers in neuroscience},
doi = {10.3389/fnins.2012.00001}
}
@phdthesis{Kohlberg.1958,
author = {Kohlberg, Lawrence},
year = {1958},
title = {The Development of Modes of Thinking and Choices in Years 10 to 16},
school = {{University of Chicago}},
type = {Ph.D. dissertation}
}
@article{Keeter.2006,
abstract = {Declining contact and cooperation rates in random digit dial (RDD) national telephone surveys raise serious concerns about the validity of estimates drawn from such research. While research in the 1990s indicated that nonresponse bias was relatively small, response rates have continued to fall since then. The current study replicates a 1997 methodological experiment that compared results from a {\dq}Standard{\dq} 5-day survey employing the Pew Research Center's usual methodology with results from a {\dq}Rigorous{\dq} survey conducted over a much longer field period and achieving a significantly higher response rate. As with the 1997 study, there is little to suggest that unit nonresponse within the range of response rates obtained seriously threatens the quality of survey estimates. In 77 out of 84 comparable items, the two surveys yielded results that were statistically indistinguishable. While the {\dq}Rigorous{\dq} study respondents tended to be somewhat less politically engaged, they did not report consistently different behaviors or attitudes on other kinds of questions. With respect to sample composition, the Standard survey was closely aligned with estimates from the U.S. Census and other large government surveys on most variables. We extend our analysis of nonresponse to include comparisons with the hardest-to-reach respondents and with respondents who terminated the interview prior to completion.},
author = {Keeter, Scott and Kennedy, Courtney and Dimock, Michael and Best, Jonathan and Craighill, Peyton},
year = {2006},
title = {Gauging the Impact of Growing Nonresponse on Estimates from a National RDD Telephone Survey},
url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/4124225},
pages = {759--779},
volume = {70},
number = {5},
issn = {15375331},
journal = {The Public Opinion Quarterly}
}
@article{Brier.1950,
author = {Brier, Glenn},
year = {1950},
title = {Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1950)078<0001:VOFEIT>2.0.CO;2},
urldate = {27.03.2017},
volume = {78},
number = {1},
journal = {Monthly Weather Review}
}
@misc{Buehler.2013,
author = {Buehler, Ingemar and D{\"o}hrn, Julia},
date = {2013},
title = {Government Foresight in Deutschland: Ans{\"a}tze, Herausforderungen und Chancen},
url = {http://www.stiftung-nv.de/sites/default/files/201304_impuls_nr._7_gf.pdf},
urldate = {08.02.2017},
institution = {{Stiftung Neue Verantwortung}}
}
@book{BuenodeMesquita.2009,
abstract = {Reveals the origins of game theory and the advances made by John Nash, to detail the controversial and cold-eyed system of calculation that allows individuals to think strategically about what their opponents want, how much they want it, and how they might react to every move.},
author = {{Bueno de Mesquita}, Bruce},
year = {2009},
title = {Predictioneer's game: Using the logic of brazen self-interest to see and shape the future},
address = {New York},
edition = {1st ed.},
publisher = {{Random House}},