Small agg model bug #99
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dmnapolitano
approved these changes
Aug 20, 2024
| agg_pred = min(max(aggregate_dem_vals_pred, called_values_lhs), called_values_rhs) + base_to_add | ||
| agg_lower = min(max(interval_lower, called_values_lhs), called_values_rhs) + base_to_add | ||
| agg_upper = min(max(interval_upper, called_values_lhs), called_values_rhs) + base_to_add | ||
| national_summary_estimates = {"margin": [agg_pred, agg_lower, agg_upper]} |
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Description
As part of the hunt for the 2023 agg model bug we identified a different, smaller bug that effects the intervals only (not the point prediction). On occasion the double sampling can create intervals that are slightly too wide.
We max the agg model predictions with the number of contests won by the LHS party since that is the minimum number of contests that party can win. We also min with the number of contests won by the RHS party since that is the maximum number they can win.
Also small change to finding the uncalled races to avoid floating point issues.
Jira Ticket
https://arcpublishing.atlassian.net/browse/ELEX-4453
Test Steps
in the testbed