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Release/2.2.4 🎉 #139

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Nov 6, 2024
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Release/2.2.4 🎉 #139

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7bd96a0
hotfix for partial reporting bug
jjcherian Nov 6, 2024
71b70be
Merge pull request #137 from washingtonpost/main
lennybronner Nov 6, 2024
2c0df30
removed changed unit test
jjcherian Nov 6, 2024
2bd9a0f
Merge pull request #138 from washingtonpost/hotfix-partial-reporting
jjcherian Nov 6, 2024
64ea03d
Preparing for 2.2.4
dmnapolitano Nov 6, 2024
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3 changes: 3 additions & 0 deletions CHANGELOG.md
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -1,5 +1,8 @@
# Changelog

# 2.2.4 (11/5/2024)
- fix: truncation can fail catastrophically when % reporting is too low [#138](https://github.com/washingtonpost/elex-live-model/pull/138)

# 2.2.3 (11/5/2024)
- chore: adding additional log [#135](https://github.com/washingtonpost/elex-live-model/pull/135)

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2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion setup.py
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Expand Up @@ -22,7 +22,7 @@
LONG_DESCRIPTION = f.read()

# The full version, including alpha/beta/rc tags
RELEASE = "2.2.3"
RELEASE = "2.2.4"
# The short X.Y version
VERSION = ".".join(RELEASE.split(".")[:2])

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4 changes: 2 additions & 2 deletions src/elexmodel/models/BootstrapElectionModel.py
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Expand Up @@ -357,10 +357,10 @@ def _generate_nonreporting_bounds(

# if percent reporting is 0 or 1, don't try to compute anything and revert to naive bounds
lower_bound[
np.isclose(nonreporting_expected_vote_frac, 0) | np.isclose(nonreporting_expected_vote_frac, 1)
(nonreporting_expected_vote_frac < 0.5) | np.isclose(nonreporting_expected_vote_frac, 1)
] = unobserved_lower_bound
upper_bound[
np.isclose(nonreporting_expected_vote_frac, 0) | np.isclose(nonreporting_expected_vote_frac, 1)
(nonreporting_expected_vote_frac < 0.5) | np.isclose(nonreporting_expected_vote_frac, 1)
] = unobserved_upper_bound

return lower_bound.values.reshape(-1, 1), upper_bound.values.reshape(-1, 1)
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62 changes: 25 additions & 37 deletions tests/models/test_bootstrap_election_model.py
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Expand Up @@ -149,7 +149,7 @@ def test_estimate_strata_dist(bootstrap_election_model, rng):

def test_generate_nonreporting_bounds(bootstrap_election_model, rng):
nonreporting_units = pd.DataFrame(
[[0.1, 1.2, 75], [0.8, 0.8, 24], [0.1, 0.01, 0], [-0.2, 0.8, 99], [-0.3, 0.9, 100]],
[[0.1, 1.2, 75], [0.1, 0.01, 0], [-0.2, 0.8, 99], [-0.3, 0.9, 100]],
columns=["results_normalized_margin", "turnout_factor", "percent_expected_vote"],
)

Expand All @@ -162,35 +162,29 @@ def test_generate_nonreporting_bounds(bootstrap_election_model, rng):
assert lower[0] == pytest.approx(-0.175)
assert upper[0] == pytest.approx(0.325)

assert lower[1] == pytest.approx(-0.568)
assert upper[1] == pytest.approx(0.952)

# if expected vote is close to 0 or 1 we set the bounds to be the extreme case
assert lower[2] == bootstrap_election_model.y_unobserved_lower_bound
assert upper[2] == bootstrap_election_model.y_unobserved_upper_bound
assert lower[1] == bootstrap_election_model.y_unobserved_lower_bound
assert upper[1] == bootstrap_election_model.y_unobserved_upper_bound

assert lower[3] == pytest.approx(-0.208)
assert upper[3] == pytest.approx(-0.188)
assert lower[2] == pytest.approx(-0.208)
assert upper[2] == pytest.approx(-0.188)

assert lower[4] == bootstrap_election_model.y_unobserved_lower_bound
assert upper[4] == bootstrap_election_model.y_unobserved_upper_bound
assert lower[3] == bootstrap_election_model.y_unobserved_lower_bound
assert upper[3] == bootstrap_election_model.y_unobserved_upper_bound

lower, upper = bootstrap_election_model._generate_nonreporting_bounds(nonreporting_units, "turnout_factor")

assert lower[0] == pytest.approx(0.96)
assert upper[0] == pytest.approx(4.8)

assert lower[1] == pytest.approx(1.081081081)
assert upper[1] == pytest.approx(80) # this is 80 since we divide 0.8 / 0.01 (it's clipped)

assert lower[2] == bootstrap_election_model.z_unobserved_lower_bound
assert upper[2] == bootstrap_election_model.z_unobserved_upper_bound
assert lower[1] == bootstrap_election_model.z_unobserved_lower_bound
assert upper[1] == bootstrap_election_model.z_unobserved_upper_bound

assert lower[3] == pytest.approx(0.536912752)
assert upper[3] == pytest.approx(1.632653061)
assert lower[2] == pytest.approx(0.536912752)
assert upper[2] == pytest.approx(1.632653061)

assert lower[4] == bootstrap_election_model.z_unobserved_lower_bound
assert upper[4] == bootstrap_election_model.z_unobserved_upper_bound
assert lower[3] == bootstrap_election_model.z_unobserved_lower_bound
assert upper[3] == bootstrap_election_model.z_unobserved_upper_bound

# changing parameters
bootstrap_election_model.y_unobserved_lower_bound = -0.8
Expand All @@ -202,17 +196,14 @@ def test_generate_nonreporting_bounds(bootstrap_election_model, rng):
assert lower[0] == pytest.approx(-0.125)
assert upper[0] == pytest.approx(0.275)

assert lower[1] == pytest.approx(-0.416)
assert upper[1] == pytest.approx(0.8)
assert lower[1] == bootstrap_election_model.y_unobserved_lower_bound
assert upper[1] == bootstrap_election_model.y_unobserved_upper_bound

assert lower[2] == bootstrap_election_model.y_unobserved_lower_bound
assert upper[2] == bootstrap_election_model.y_unobserved_upper_bound
assert lower[2] == pytest.approx(-0.206)
assert upper[2] == pytest.approx(-0.19)

assert lower[3] == pytest.approx(-0.206)
assert upper[3] == pytest.approx(-0.19)

assert lower[4] == bootstrap_election_model.y_unobserved_lower_bound
assert upper[4] == bootstrap_election_model.y_unobserved_upper_bound
assert lower[3] == bootstrap_election_model.y_unobserved_lower_bound
assert upper[3] == bootstrap_election_model.y_unobserved_upper_bound

bootstrap_election_model.y_unobserved_lower_bound = 0.8
bootstrap_election_model.y_unobserved_upper_bound = 1.2
Expand All @@ -222,17 +213,14 @@ def test_generate_nonreporting_bounds(bootstrap_election_model, rng):
assert lower[0] == pytest.approx(1.411764706)
assert upper[0] == pytest.approx(1.846153846)

assert lower[1] == pytest.approx(2.352941176)
assert upper[1] == pytest.approx(5.714285714)

assert lower[2] == bootstrap_election_model.z_unobserved_lower_bound
assert upper[2] == bootstrap_election_model.z_unobserved_upper_bound
assert lower[1] == bootstrap_election_model.z_unobserved_lower_bound
assert upper[1] == bootstrap_election_model.z_unobserved_upper_bound

assert lower[3] == pytest.approx(0.733944954)
assert upper[3] == pytest.approx(0.898876404)
assert lower[2] == pytest.approx(0.733944954)
assert upper[2] == pytest.approx(0.898876404)

assert lower[4] == bootstrap_election_model.z_unobserved_lower_bound
assert upper[4] == bootstrap_election_model.z_unobserved_upper_bound
assert lower[3] == bootstrap_election_model.z_unobserved_lower_bound
assert upper[3] == bootstrap_election_model.z_unobserved_upper_bound


def test_strata_pit(bootstrap_election_model, rng):
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