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vcameron1 committed Dec 11, 2023
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10 changes: 7 additions & 3 deletions .gitignore
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#### Data ####
data_raw/*
data_clean/*
SDM/BITH_SDM.RDS
SDM/RCP45_*
SDM/biomass_*
SDM/results/BITH_metrics_QC.RDS


#### R ####
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# Extra
.DS_Store
*.RDS
#*.RDS
*.grd
*.gri
*.gif
*.html
*.tif
#*.tif
mapSpecies/*
graveyard/*
#graveyard/*
trash/*
docs/

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9 changes: 0 additions & 9 deletions manuscript/references.bib
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pages = {151},
}

@Book{r_core_team_r_2019,
address = {Vienna, Austria},
title = {R: {A} {Language} and {Environment} for {Statistical} {Computing}},
url = {https://www.R-project.org/},
publisher = {R Foundation for Statistical Computing},
author = {{R Core Team}},
year = {2019},
}

@Article{hanski_spatially_2001,
title = {Spatially realistic theory of metapopulation ecology},
volume = {88},
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2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion metadata.yml
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title: "SPATIAL STRUCTURE IS MORE THAN HABITAT AMOUNT: A METAPOPULATION APPROACH IS NECESSARY TO PROJECT DISTRIBUTIONS UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE"
title: "Spatial Structure is More Than Habitat Amount: A Metapopulation Approach is Necessary to Project Distributions Under Climate Change"
running_title: ""
abstract: "Projecting distributions under climate change requires going beyond climate suitability models. Assessing species persistence should account for the spatial arrangement and the size of suitable habitats, which are often characterized by vegetation or other biotic constraints. We propose that metapopulation theory can be used to leverage species distribution models and account for the complexity arising from biotic interactions, demography, and landscape structure. We review the theory for distribution shifts in response to climate change and derive three concepts that contrast with classical approaches: i) habitat-climate mismatch can generate non-equilibrium dynamics, ii) linear change in habitat occupancy generates nonlinear distribution change, and iii) the effect of environmental change on habitats can propagate up and have counterintuitive effects on higher trophic levels. We illustrate the theory through a study of habitat suitability within the Bicknell's Thrush (*Catharus bicknelli*) distribution, a threatened bird whose patchy distribution is restricted to dense balsam fir forests generally found at high elevation. Under climate warming, we observe from the effect of climate alone a northward expansion associated with an important southern range contraction. In contrast, the distribution of associated vegetation remains geographically stable despite warming. An arising mismatch between climate and vegetation drives important changes to the spatial structure of suitable habitat patches. Patch area, connectivity, and habitat amount can be differently affected by climate change, which influence species persistence, suggesting that habitat amount alone is not enough to characterize regional distribution changes. Our results support the importance of integrating both habitat amount (biotic and abiotic) and landscape spatial structure in the assessment of persistence for which the metapopulation theory may be an ideal framework."
keywords:
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