Merge pull request #644 from flohump/f_AFS

AgroForestry: treecover on cropland and betr
magpiemodel · Jun 18, 2024 · 3122e89 · 3122e89
2 parents 089f991 + 8334590
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diff --git a/CHANGELOG.md b/CHANGELOG.md
@@ -7,16 +7,28 @@ The format is based on [Keep a Changelog](https://keepachangelog.com/en/1.0.0/).
 ## [Unreleased]
 
 ### changed
+- **29_ageclass** module 29_ageclass has been renamed to 28_ageclass to make space for `29_cropland` just before `30_croparea`
+- **30_crop** module `30_crop` renamed to `30_croparea`, which now only accounts for crop area.
+- **30_crop** Semi-Natural Vegetation (SNV) implementation has been moved from `30_crop` to `29_cropland` 
+- **30_crop** the two realizations `penalty_apr22` and `rotation_apr22` have been merged into a single `30_croparea/detail_apr24` realization
+- **30_crop** the previous `30_crop/endo_apr21` realization has been moved to `30_croparea/simple_apr24`
+- **default.cfg** update additional data to rev4.51
 - **scripts** adjusted SLURM job handling
 
 ### added
--
+- **29_cropland** new module `29_cropland` accounting for crop area, fallow cropland and tree cover on cropland with two realizations: `detail_apr24` and `simple_apr24` (default).
+- **10_land** added interface `pm_land_hist` with historic land use patterns
 
 ### removed
--
+- **32_forestry** removed technical balance term `v32_land_missing_ndc`
 
 ### fixed
--
+- **22_land_conservation** avoid infeasibilities due to very small numbers, account for cropland tree cover and lower bound of cropland
+- **32_forestry** avoid infeasibilities due to very small numbers
+- **35_natveg** avoid infeasibilities due to very small numbers
+- **44_biodiversity** Fixing to SSP2 parameters until 2025 was not working
+- **config** update to input data rev4.109. In the previous rev4.108, MER GDP was wrong and was identical to PPP GDP
+
 
 
 ## [4.8.0] - 2024-06-10

diff --git a/DESCRIPTION b/DESCRIPTION
@@ -22,7 +22,7 @@ Imports:
     m4fsdp,
     madrat,
     magclass (>= 6.14.0),
-    magpie4,
+    magpie4 (>= 2.3.10),
     MagpieNCGains,
     magpiesets,
     mip,

diff --git a/config/default.cfg b/config/default.cfg
@@ -22,10 +22,10 @@ cfg$model <- "main.gms"   #def = "main.gms"
 #### input settings ####
 
 # which input data sets should be used?
-cfg$input <- c(regional    = "rev4.108_h12_magpie.tgz",
-               cellular    = "rev4.108_h12_fd712c0b_cellularmagpie_c200_MRI-ESM2-0-ssp370_lpjml-8e6c5eb1.tgz",
-               validation  = "rev4.108_h12_validation.tgz",
-               additional  = "additional_data_rev4.50.tgz",
+cfg$input <- c(regional    = "rev4.109_h12_magpie.tgz",
+               cellular    = "rev4.109_h12_fd712c0b_cellularmagpie_c200_MRI-ESM2-0-ssp370_lpjml-8e6c5eb1.tgz",
+               validation  = "rev4.109_h12_validation.tgz",
+               additional  = "additional_data_rev4.51.tgz",
                calibration = "calibration_H12_26Mar24.tgz")
 
 # NOTE: It is recommended to recalibrate the model when changing cellular input data
@@ -175,6 +175,11 @@ oecd90andEU <- "ALB,AUS,AUT,BEL,BIH,BGR,CAN,CYP,CZE,DNK,EST,FIN,FRA,
                 NLD,NOR,NZL,POL,PRT,ROU,SRB,SVK,SVN,ESP,SWE,CHE,MKD,TUR,
                 GBR,USA"
 
+isoCountriesEUR <- "ALB,AUT,BEL,BGR,CYP,CZE,DEU,DNK,ESP,EST,FIN,FRA,FRO,
+                GBR,GGY,GIB,GRC,HRV,HUN,IMN,IRL,ITA,JEY,LTU,LUX,LVA,MLT,
+                NLD,POL,PRT,ROU,SVK,SVN,SWE"
+
+
 # ***---------------------    09_drivers   ----------------------------------------
 # * (aug17): default drivers
 cfg$gms$drivers <- "aug17"          # def = aug17
@@ -205,7 +210,7 @@ cfg$gms$land <- "landmatrix_dec18"          # def = landmatrix_dec18
 # * The balance variables in the land module avoid infeasibilities due to
 # * differences in accuracy between parameters and variables in GAMS.
 # * High costs make sure that the balance variables are only used as a last resort.
-cfg$gms$s10_cost_balance  <- 1000000   # def = 1000000
+cfg$gms$s10_cost_balance  <- 1e+06   # def = 1e+06
 
 
 # ***---------------------    11_costs   ------ --------------------------------
@@ -679,37 +684,20 @@ cfg$gms$s22_conservation_start <- 2025       # def = 2025
 # * Target year (year when full protection is reached):
 cfg$gms$s22_conservation_target <- 2050       # def = 2050
 
-# ***---------------------    29_ageclass    -----------------------------------
+# ***---------------------    28_ageclass    -----------------------------------
 # * (feb21): Distribution of age-classes according to Poulter et al 2018
 cfg$gms$ageclass    <- "feb21"               # def = feb21
 
-# ***---------------------    30_crop    ---------------------------------------
-# * (endo_apr21): Hard rotational constraints. Dynamic cropland and detailed cropland availability data at grid cell level.
-# * (rotation_apr22): hard rotational constraints and fallow constraints with the option of different future scenarios. Dynamic cropland and detailed cropland availability data at grid cell level.
-# * (penalty_apr22): rotational and fallow constraints are incentivized via penalty payments. Dynamic cropland and detailed cropland availability data at grid cell level.
+# ***---------------------    29_cropland    -----------------------------------
+# * Cropland is defined as the sum of croparea, fallow land and tree cover
+# * Croparea is provided by 30_crop.
+# * Fallow land and tree cover are defined by 29_cropland, 
+# * (simple_apr24): Fallow land and tree cover on cropland are fixed to zero
+# * (detail_apr24): Fallow land and tree cover based on rules or incentives
 # NOTE: It is recommended to recalibrate the model when changing this setting!
-cfg$gms$crop    <- "endo_apr21"               # def = endo_apr21
-# * (c30_bioen_type): switch for type of bioenergy crops; options: begr, betr, all
-cfg$gms$c30_bioen_type <- "all"               # def = "all"
-# * (c30_bioen_water): switch for irrigation of bioenergy crops; options: rainfed, irrigated, all
-cfg$gms$c30_bioen_water <- "rainfed"          # def = "rainfed"
-# * (c30_rotation_constraints): switch for rotational constraints: on, off
-cfg$gms$c30_rotation_constraints <- "on"       # def = "on"
-# * (c30_rotation_scenario): scenarios for constraints.
-# * In realization rotation_apr22: min (minimal constraints), default (best guess), good (good practice),
-# * good_20div (good practice - 20% for other crops), setaside (default plus fallow),
-# * legumes (minimum share of legumes), agroforestry (minimum share of perennials), sixfoldrotation
-# * (crops can only repeat after 6 years), agroecology (mix of previous scenarios)
-# * In realization penalty_apr22: none (no incentives), default (best guess), fallow (increased fallow incentives),
-# * legumes (increased incentives for legumes), agroforestry (increased incentives for perennials), agroecology (mix)
-# * In realization endo_apr21: no scenarios exist.
-cfg$gms$c30_rotation_scenario <- "default"     # def = "default"
-# * Year by which rotation scenario is fully implemented:
-# * Start year:
-cfg$gms$s30_rotation_scenario_start <- 2025       # def = 2025
-# * Target year (year when full implementation is reached):
-cfg$gms$s30_rotation_scenario_target <- 2050       # def = 2050
+cfg$gms$cropland    <- "simple_apr24"               # def = simple_apr24
 
+# *** Options for all cropland realizations ***
 
 # * Switch to determine whether marginal land (suitability index below 0.33) should be included
 # * in the total available cropland. Options are:
@@ -718,39 +706,147 @@ cfg$gms$s30_rotation_scenario_target <- 2050       # def = 2050
 # * ("no_marginal"): Marginal land is completely excluded from crop cultivation
 # * Note: Option "q33_marginal" produces the highest spatial correlation
 # * with observed cropland patterns and is recommended for productive runs.
-cfg$gms$c30_marginal_land <- "q33_marginal"   # def = "q33_marginal"
+cfg$gms$c29_marginal_land <- "q33_marginal"   # def = "q33_marginal"
+
+# * Switch and specification of countries for selected policies in apply.
+# * Options: list of iso-codes of countries where SNV policy should be applied
+# * Note: must be written in the format: "IND, BRA, DEU"
+# * Default: all iso countries
+cfg$gms$policy_countries29  <- all_iso_countries
 
 # * Share of available cropland that is withheld for maintaining semi-natural vegetation (SNV)
 # * in each square km in cropland areas, including grassland, forest and other land. For example,
 # * a share of 0.2 corresponds to 20 % of SNV in terms of the available cropland.
 # * The amount of cropland relocation is estimated based on external high resolution
 # * land cover information from the Copernicus Global Land Service for the year 2019.
 # * Accepted sensible values are between 0 and 0.5
-# Note: s30_snv_shr applies to countries selected in policy_countries30
-# s30_snv_shr_noselect applies to all other countries.
-cfg$gms$s30_snv_shr <- 0                # def = 0
-cfg$gms$s30_snv_shr_noselect <- 0       # def = 0
-# * Year by which SNV policy ('s30_snv_shr') is fully implemented.
+# Note: s29_snv_shr applies to countries selected in policy_countries29
+# s29_snv_shr_noselect applies to all other countries.
+cfg$gms$s29_snv_shr <- 0                # def = 0
+cfg$gms$s29_snv_shr_noselect <- 0       # def = 0
+# * Year by which SNV policy ('s29_snv_shr') is fully implemented.
 # * Start year (should be close to 2019):
-cfg$gms$s30_snv_scenario_start <- 2025       # def = 2025
+cfg$gms$s29_snv_scenario_start <- 2025       # def = 2025
 # * Target year (year when full implementation is reached):
-cfg$gms$s30_snv_scenario_target <- 2050       # def = 2050
-# * Switch and specification of countries for which SNV policy in
-# * s30_snv_shr apply.
-# * Options: list of iso-codes of countries where SNV policy should be applied
-# * Note: must be written in the format: "IND, BRA, DEU"
-# * Default: all iso countries
-cfg$gms$policy_countries30  <- all_iso_countries
+cfg$gms$s29_snv_scenario_target <- 2050       # def = 2050
 # * Land types included in the SNV policy. This option allows for sensitivity analyses.
 # * plausible options:  "secdforest, forestry, past, other",
 # *                     "secdforest, other",
 # *                     "secdforest, past, other" etc.
 cfg$gms$land_snv <- "secdforest, forestry, past, other"    #def = "secdforest, forestry, past, other"
 
+# *** Options only available for `detail_apr24` realization ***
+
+## Agroforestry settings for treecover on cropland
+# * Sigmoid fader for minimum area share of treecover on total cropland at cluster level
+# * Minimum area share of treecover on total cropland in target year
+# Note: s29_treecover_target applies to countries selected in policy_countries29
+# s29_treecover_target_noselect applies to all other countries.
+cfg$gms$s29_treecover_target <- 0   # def = 0
+cfg$gms$s29_treecover_target_noselect <- 0   # def = 0
+# * Avoid loss of existing treecover (1=yes 0=no). 
+# * If set to 1, `s29_treecover_target` will be adjusted based existing treecover area.
+cfg$gms$s29_treecover_keep <- 1   # def = 1
+# * Maximum share of treecover on total cropland (1)
+cfg$gms$s29_treecover_max <- 0.4   # def = 0.4
+# * Start year of fader
+cfg$gms$s29_treecover_scenario_start <- 2025   # def = 2025
+# * Target year of fader (year when full implementation is reached)
+cfg$gms$s29_treecover_scenario_target <- 2050   # def = 2050
+# * Penalty for violation of treecover target before scenario start (USD05MER per ha)
+cfg$gms$s29_treecover_penalty_before <- 5000   # def = 5000
+# * Penalty for violation of treecover target after scenario start (USD05MER per ha)
+cfg$gms$s29_treecover_penalty <- 5000   # def = 5000
+# * Tree cover establishment cost (USD05MER per ha)
+cfg$gms$s29_cost_treecover_est <- 2000   # def = 2000
+# * Tree cover recurring cost (USD05MER per ha)
+cfg$gms$s29_cost_treecover_recur <- 500   # def = 500
+
+# * Sigmoid fader for minimum area share of fallow land on total cropland at cluster level
+# * Minimum area share of fallow land on total cropland in target year
+cfg$gms$s29_fallow_target <- 0   # def = 0
+# * Maximum share of fallow land on total cropland
+cfg$gms$s29_fallow_max <- 0.4   # def = 0.4
+# * Start year of fader
+cfg$gms$s29_fallow_scenario_start <- 2025   # def = 2025
+# * Target year of fader (year when full implementation is reached)
+cfg$gms$s29_fallow_scenario_target <- 2050   # def = 2050
+# * Penalty for violation of fallow land target (USD05MER per ha)
+cfg$gms$s29_fallow_penalty <- 500   # def = 500
+
+# ***---------------------    30_croparea    ---------------------------------------
+# * 30_croparea defines the croparea, which is a subcomponent of total cropland defined in 29_cropland.
+# * (simple_apr24): Dynamic croparea with simple rotational constraints
+# * (detail_apr24): Dynamic croparea with detailed rules and incentives for rotational constraints
+# NOTE: It is recommended to recalibrate the model when changing this setting!
+cfg$gms$croparea    <- "simple_apr24"               # def = simple_apr24
+
+# *** Options for all croparea realizations ***
+
+# * (c30_bioen_type): switch for type of bioenergy crops; options: begr, betr, all
+cfg$gms$c30_bioen_type <- "all"               # def = "all"
+# * (c30_bioen_water): switch for irrigation of bioenergy crops; options: rainfed, irrigated, all
+cfg$gms$c30_bioen_water <- "rainfed"          # def = "rainfed"
+
+# * Switch and specification of countries for selected policies in apply.
+# * Options: list of iso-codes of countries where SNV policy should be applied
+# * Note: must be written in the format: "IND, BRA, DEU"
+# * Default: all iso countries
+cfg$gms$policy_countries30  <- all_iso_countries
+
+## Agroforestry settings for bioenergy trees
+# * Sigmoid fader for minimum area share of bioenergy trees (betr) on total cropland at cluster level
+# * Minimum area share of bioenergy trees on total cropland in start year
+# Note: s30_betr_start applies to countries selected in policy_countries30, 
+# s30_betr_start_noselect applies to all other countries.
+cfg$gms$s30_betr_start <- 0   # def = 0
+cfg$gms$s30_betr_start_noselect <- 0   # def = 0
+# * Minimum area share of bioenergy trees on total cropland in target year
+# Note: s30_betr_target applies to countries selected in policy_countries30, 
+# s30_betr_target_noselect applies to all other countries.
+cfg$gms$s30_betr_target <- 0   # def = 0
+cfg$gms$s30_betr_target_noselect <- 0   # def = 0
+# * Start year of fader
+cfg$gms$s30_betr_scenario_start <- 2025   # def = 2025
+# * Target year of fader (year when full implementation is reached)
+cfg$gms$s30_betr_scenario_target <- 2050   # def = 2050
+# * Penalty for violation of the target (USD05MER per ha)
+cfg$gms$s30_betr_penalty <- 2000   # def = 2000
+
 # * Allowed annual cropland growth per year per region, relative to the current cropland level
 # * e.g., 0.02: 2% annual growth, compounded to 10.4% growth for five-years timestep
 cfg$gms$s30_annual_max_growth <- Inf       # def = Inf
 
+# *** Options only available for `simple_apr24` realization ***
+
+# * (c30_rotation_constraints): switch for rotational constraints: on, off
+cfg$gms$c30_rotation_constraints <- "on"       # def = "on"
+
+# *** Options only available for `detail_apr24` realization ***
+
+# * Switch for rule-based (1) or penalty-based (0) implementation of rotation scenarios
+cfg$gms$s30_implementation <- 1   # def = 1
+
+# * Rotation rules:
+# * min (minimal constraints), default (best guess), good (good practice),
+# * good_20div (good practice - 20% for other crops), setaside (default plus fallow),
+# * legumes (minimum share of legumes), sixfoldrotation (crops can only repeat after 6 years), 
+# * agroecology (mix of previous scenarios), FSEC (similar to agroecology)
+# * betr0 (minimum share of short rotation agroforestry trees), betr10, betr20, betr25, betr30, betr40, betr50.
+cfg$gms$c30_rotation_rules <- "default"     # def = "default"
+
+# * Rotation incentives:
+# * none (no incentives), default (best guess), 
+# * legumes (increased incentives for legumes), agroecology (mix), 
+# * betr500 and betr1000 (incentives for short rotation agroforestry trees)
+cfg$gms$c30_rotation_incentives <- "none"     # def = "none"
+
+# * Year by which rotation scenario is fully implemented:
+# * Start year:
+cfg$gms$s30_rotation_scenario_start <- 2025       # def = 2025
+# * Target year (year when full implementation is reached):
+cfg$gms$s30_rotation_scenario_target <- 2050       # def = 2050
+
 # ***---------------------    31_past    ---------------------------------------
 # * (static):     static pasture
 # * (endo_jun13): dynamic pasture
@@ -1920,7 +2016,7 @@ cfg$gms$s73_expansion <- 0                     # def = 0
 cfg$gms$optimization <- "nlp_apr17"              # def = nlp_apr17
 
 # maximal number of solve iterations
-cfg$gms$s80_maxiter <- 30
+cfg$gms$s80_maxiter <- 30  # def = 30
 
 # Solver settings only for realization `lp_nlp_apr17`. All other realizations use `conopt4`.
 # * (conopt4):         conopt4
@@ -1998,7 +2094,7 @@ cfg$files2export$start <- c("input/info.txt",
                             "modules/14_yields/input/lpj_yields_0.5.mz",
                             "modules/22_land_conservation/input/wdpa_baseline_0.5.mz",
                             "modules/22_land_conservation/input/consv_prio_areas_0.5.mz",
-                            "modules/30_crop/endo_apr21/input/avl_cropland_0.5.mz",
+                            "modules/29_cropland/input/avl_cropland_0.5.mz",
                             "modules/50_nr_soil_budget/input/f50_NitrogenFixationRateNatural_0.5.mz",
                             "modules/50_nr_soil_budget/input/f50_AtmosphericDepositionRates_0.5.mz",
                             "input/f34_urbanland_0.5.mz",