Merge pull request #265 from iiasa/ssp-dev-aluminum-revision

Revise aluminum sector calibration

message_ix_models/data/material/aluminum/alu_ref_int_1985_2023.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+Period;Africa & Asia (ex China);North America;South America;Europe;Oceania;China;World
+2023;12154;9777;8333;15044;10796;9173;10009
+2022;12750;9031;7992;15228;11041;10496;10878
+2021;12718;9366;8108;13132;1104;10849;10986
+2020;12156;10363;8277;13707;10455;10878;10915
+2019;12852;8938;8951;13462;10528;11437;11351
+2018;12324;9888;933;13076;10713;11525;11359
+2017;13099;9879;8591;12807;106;12054;11564
+2016;15037;11591;864;12908;10746;11954;11388
+2015;14786;12158;8974;12979;1045;12524;11933
+2014;15011;11953;8624;13086;10673;13936;12579
+2013;16642;11451;8847;13791;10508;15523;1326
+2012;15683;11617;8882;13255;10128;1714;13675
+2011;15491;11262;9043;14274;11411;1664;13759
+2010;16212;12018;9814;14627;10721;18581;14346
+2009;16955;11819;9554;17137;11203;19385;14647
+2008;16787;10871;10504;1584;11295;23356;15554
+2007;18057;10961;10741;14628;1123;25522;15934
+2006;19093;12076;11065;17005;11457;23598;15201
+2005;12788;11385;11190;12510;11444;29348;14133
+2004;12581;10352;10043;12403;11864;30088;13756
+2003;14536;10927;11112;12312;11745;32612;14193
+2002;12938;11957;11436;1349;11375;33948;14554
+2001;15421;11082;11807;12934;11087;34691;14366
+2000;16687;11654;11903;12627;1137;35644;14479
+1999;17106;11273;11709;12883;11964;38278;14774
+1998;17468;11025;12144;13031;12126;40632;14919
+1997;16356;11356;12052;12191;12269;-;12339
+1996;16455;12668;1258;11987;12213;-;12637
+1995;15065;12528;12794;12094;12301;-;12621
+1994;15169;12327;12644;11723;115;-;12194
+1993;15698;12872;12613;12264;11398;-;12353
+1992;15004;1302;12372;12453;12447;-;12705
+1991;15379;13286;12278;12084;12435;-;12696
+1990;15488;13289;11985;12001;12706;-;12737
+1989;14456;13653;11462;11893;12339;-;12476
+1988;15463;13365;9981;1223;12402;-;12234
+1987;18016;12728;9965;12269;12592;-;12229
+1986;15536;11512;10286;12126;13031;-;12156
+1985;16239;12048;12452;12267;13417;-;12977

message_ix_models/data/material/aluminum/demand_2025.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
+node,commodity,level,year,time,value,unit
+R12_AFR,aluminum,demand,2025,year,3.390494404119991,t
+R12_EEU,aluminum,demand,2025,year,5.7040045876326255,t
+R12_FSU,aluminum,demand,2025,year,5.417485073347417,t
+R12_LAM,aluminum,demand,2025,year,3.92917152614197,t
+R12_MEA,aluminum,demand,2025,year,3.46029608341049,t
+R12_NAM,aluminum,demand,2025,year,15.161147392128369,t
+R12_PAO,aluminum,demand,2025,year,3.903741922598367,t
+R12_PAS,aluminum,demand,2025,year,6.760166458897411,t
+R12_SAS,aluminum,demand,2025,year,6.400692003394531,t
+R12_WEU,aluminum,demand,2025,year,7.678680255487364,t
+R12_CHN,aluminum,demand,2025,year,34.61849606267114,t
+R12_RCPA,aluminum,demand,2025,year,2.209764908059664,t

message_ix_models/data/material/aluminum/demand_aluminum.yaml

@@ -1,36 +1,36 @@
 - R12_AFR:
     year: 2020
-    value: 3.00000
+    value: 2.75
 - R12_RCPA:
     year: 2020
-    value: 2.00000
+    value: 2.0
 - R12_EEU:
     year: 2020
-    value: 6.00000
+    value: 5.3
 - R12_FSU:
     year: 2020
-    value: 5.00000
+    value: 4.85
 - R12_LAM:
     year: 2020
-    value: 2.50000
+    value: 2.6
 - R12_MEA:
     year: 2020
-    value: 2.00000
+    value: 2.2
 - R12_NAM:
     year: 2020
-    value: 13.60000
+    value: 14
 - R12_PAO:
     year: 2020
-    value: 3.00000
+    value: 3.6
 - R12_PAS:
     year: 2020
-    value: 4.80000
+    value: 4.8
 - R12_SAS:
     year: 2020
-    value: 4.80000
+    value: 4.80
 - R12_WEU:
     year: 2020
-    value: 6.00000
+    value: 6.00
 - R12_CHN:
     year: 2020
-    value: 26.00000
+    value: 27.3

message_ix_models/data/material/ammonia/demand_2025.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
+node,commodity,level,year,time,value,unit
+R12_AFR,NH3,final_material,2025,year,2.655826840613548,t
+R12_CHN,NH3,final_material,2025,year,19.509765755986678,t
+R12_EEU,NH3,final_material,2025,year,4.213433572242334,t
+R12_FSU,NH3,final_material,2025,year,7.204624589619355,t
+R12_LAM,NH3,final_material,2025,year,2.6443630084868754,t
+R12_MEA,NH3,final_material,2025,year,2.6463332649010893,t
+R12_NAM,NH3,final_material,2025,year,7.291628222808803,t
+R12_PAO,NH3,final_material,2025,year,2.5658865183830537,t
+R12_PAS,NH3,final_material,2025,year,2.661091686760797,t
+R12_RCPA,NH3,final_material,2025,year,2.72594836078395,t
+R12_SAS,NH3,final_material,2025,year,7.755776900489005,t
+R12_WEU,NH3,final_material,2025,year,5.855896480835045,t

message_ix_models/data/material/cement/demand_2025.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
+node,commodity,level,year,time,value,unit
+R12_AFR,cement,demand,2025,year,140.2425571595793,t
+R12_EEU,cement,demand,2025,year,43.839280097299145,t
+R12_FSU,cement,demand,2025,year,108.45888265422545,t
+R12_LAM,cement,demand,2025,year,200.83402436976078,t
+R12_MEA,cement,demand,2025,year,323.46591566959586,t
+R12_NAM,cement,demand,2025,year,119.67969767150731,t
+R12_PAO,cement,demand,2025,year,53.48376239064636,t
+R12_PAS,cement,demand,2025,year,250.72079017745176,t
+R12_SAS,cement,demand,2025,year,488.5888605832439,t
+R12_WEU,cement,demand,2025,year,210.9156287414474,t
+R12_CHN,cement,demand,2025,year,2165.810003963428,t
+R12_RCPA,cement,demand,2025,year,106.38144508300388,t

message_ix_models/data/material/methanol/demand_2025.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
+node,commodity,level,year,time,value,unit
+R12_AFR,methanol,demand,2025,year,0.6437125259225385,t
+R12_CHN,methanol,demand,2025,year,83.4398718653732,t
+R12_EEU,methanol,demand,2025,year,1.8738267356744767,t
+R12_FSU,methanol,demand,2025,year,3.439439876055323,t
+R12_LAM,methanol,demand,2025,year,3.169745811139945,t
+R12_MEA,methanol,demand,2025,year,3.8137629836445663,t
+R12_NAM,methanol,demand,2025,year,10.194960935440516,t
+R12_PAO,methanol,demand,2025,year,2.26845340595827,t
+R12_PAS,methanol,demand,2025,year,9.722946298369182,t
+R12_RCPA,methanol,demand,2025,year,0.7034326872676644,t
+R12_SAS,methanol,demand,2025,year,4.4452928433924335,t
+R12_WEU,methanol,demand,2025,year,9.124409617262367,t

message_ix_models/data/material/petrochemicals/demand_2025.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
+node,commodity,level,year,time,value,unit
+R12_AFR,HVC,demand,2025,year,2.7739844174725152,t
+R12_CHN,HVC,demand,2025,year,61.08932926073989,t
+R12_EEU,HVC,demand,2025,year,3.400187947954376,t
+R12_FSU,HVC,demand,2025,year,5.3654010528917055,t
+R12_LAM,HVC,demand,2025,year,12.58799309335563,t
+R12_MEA,HVC,demand,2025,year,46.1972305755139,t
+R12_NAM,HVC,demand,2025,year,54.98681624852799,t
+R12_PAO,HVC,demand,2025,year,11.724751702213592,t
+R12_PAS,HVC,demand,2025,year,43.54093825352989,t
+R12_RCPA,HVC,demand,2025,year,0.5394172787449382,t
+R12_SAS,HVC,demand,2025,year,13.58814744115441,t
+R12_WEU,HVC,demand,2025,year,32.53579341088541,t

message_ix_models/data/material/set.yaml

@@ -516,6 +516,9 @@ aluminum:
 
   technology:
     add:
+    - trade_alumina
+    - import_alumina
+    - export_alumina
     - refining_aluminum
     - soderberg_aluminum
     - prebake_aluminum

message_ix_models/data/material/steel/demand_2025.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
+node,commodity,level,year,time,value,unit
+R12_AFR,steel,demand,2025,year,18.29593163087441,t
+R12_EEU,steel,demand,2025,year,35.78770203948542,t
+R12_FSU,steel,demand,2025,year,58.04721983130711,t
+R12_LAM,steel,demand,2025,year,71.06570859301353,t
+R12_MEA,steel,demand,2025,year,74.42715308961411,t
+R12_NAM,steel,demand,2025,year,89.62934679076031,t
+R12_PAO,steel,demand,2025,year,55.692717450262336,t
+R12_PAS,steel,demand,2025,year,136.46805666602015,t
+R12_SAS,steel,demand,2025,year,175.18623188183054,t
+R12_WEU,steel,demand,2025,year,137.43064826765112,t
+R12_CHN,steel,demand,2025,year,1038.741880167054,t
+R12_RCPA,steel,demand,2025,year,29.41943405242765,t

message_ix_models/model/material/build.py

@@ -17,7 +17,6 @@
     modify_demand_and_hist_activity,
 )
 from message_ix_models.model.material.data_petro import gen_data_petro_chemicals
-from message_ix_models.model.material.data_power_sector import gen_data_power_sector
 from message_ix_models.model.material.data_steel import gen_data_steel
 from message_ix_models.model.material.data_util import (
     add_cement_bounds_2020,
@@ -54,14 +53,14 @@
 log = logging.getLogger(__name__)
 
 DATA_FUNCTIONS = [
+    gen_data_aluminum,
     gen_data_methanol,
     gen_all_NH3_fert,
     gen_data_generic,
     gen_data_steel,
     gen_data_cement,
     gen_data_petro_chemicals,
-    gen_data_power_sector,
-    gen_data_aluminum,
+    # gen_data_power_sector,
 ]
 
 # add as needed/implemented
@@ -183,6 +182,24 @@ def calibrate_existing_constraints(
         get_ssp_low_temp_shr_up(ScenarioInfo(scenario), get_ssp_from_context(context)),
     )
     scenario.commit("adjust low temp heat share constraint")
+
+    # remove scrap constraint for aluminum recycling in base year
+    df_scrap_inp = scenario.par(
+        "input",
+        filters={
+            "technology": "secondary_aluminum",
+            "commodity": "aluminum",
+            "year_act": 2020,
+        },
+    )
+    with scenario.transact():
+        scenario.remove_par("input", df_scrap_inp)
+    df_out_scrap = scenario.par(
+        "output",
+        filters={"level": "new_scrap", "commodity": "aluminum", "year_act": 2020},
+    )
+    with scenario.transact():
+        scenario.remove_par("output", df_out_scrap)
     return scenario