most common name data and script

gbizel · Nov 20, 2014 · bef7964 · bef7964
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diff --git a/most-common-name/README.md b/most-common-name/README.md
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+### Most Common Name
+
+This repo contains the code and data behind the story:
+
+[Dear Mona, What’s The Most Common Name In America?](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whats-the-most-common-name-in-america/)
+
+The main script file is `most-common-name.R`
+
+There are four input files:
+
+ * `state-pop.csv` - Total population and Hispanic population by state. 
+ * `surnames.csv` - Data on surnames from the U.S. Census Bureau, including a breakdown by race/ethnicity. 
+ * `aging-curve.csv` - Data from the Social Security Administration on the chances that someone born in the decade shown was still alive in 2013: http://www.ssa.gov/oact/NOTES/as120/LifeTables_Tbl_7.html
+ * `adjustments.csv` - Taken directly from Lee Hartman's article: http://mypage.siu.edu/lhartman/johnsmith.html.
+
+And five output files:
+
+* `adjusted-name-combinations-list.csv` - Adjusted estimates for the most common full names. 
+* `adjusted-name-combinations-matrix.csv` - The same data from the file `adjusted-name-combinations-list.csv` but in matrix form. These are the estimates presented in the second (and final) table of the article.
+* `independent-name-combinations-by-pop.csv` - Matrix of estimates for the top 100 most common first names by top 100 most common surnames. These were calculated using independent odds, and displayed in the first table presented in the article.
+* `new-top-firstNames.csv` - Final estimated ranking of top first names.
+* `new-top-surnames.csv` - Final estimated ranking of top surnames.
+
diff --git a/most-common-name/adjusted-name-combinations-list.csv b/most-common-name/adjusted-name-combinations-list.csv
diff --git a/most-common-name/adjusted-name-combinations-matrix.csv b/most-common-name/adjusted-name-combinations-matrix.csv
@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
+"","FirstName","SMITH","JOHNSON","WILLIAMS","BROWN","JONES","GARCIA","RODRIGUEZ","MILLER","MARTINEZ","DAVIS","HERNANDEZ","LOPEZ","GONZALEZ","WILSON","ANDERSON","THOMAS","TAYLOR","LEE","MOORE","JACKSON"
+"70","Michael",30915.3639758192,22110.6778477485,17925.9337513276,18014.1628889499,16704.0250659371,6737.02542789882,5142.43440518657,16126.4304410701,6123.39068830423,13689.9119923918,NA,NA,NA,9955.27353903254,9571.22569542216,9268.46993725383,8996.89951980019,8006.16407485502,10012.4406069517,7105.16680690511
+"39","James",31289.7355674834,22465.8557872627,20778.8185093931,19133.358414323,16449.2650725092,2047.58475251771,1553.95626301222,14497.7725299916,1908.09637654612,15653.8861130525,NA,NA,NA,12066.0225851187,10229.0803449309,9920.97968207131,10844.9842637353,8789.3773351676,10921.6922635898,9029.3206088283
+"44","John",18715.2588143273,12576.6238204357,14458.1874809372,9491.51836762503,10511.9336476099,4175.73777549329,3561.59668036704,12369.1993434729,4084.62759372798,10736.8236342261,NA,NA,NA,8311.00720172512,8349.66905631504,7910.78066433961,7503.30428117198,6801.60239746484,7491.87125931207,5159.56639804023
+"83","Robert",26093.6696272491,20167.693770498,15786.2362503737,16188.5384092428,15801.7386835285,5194.8708291319,4468.69504894458,14510.7052720511,4943.88815746683,11739.9634768221,NA,NA,NA,9706.45928290549,9733.44302878135,7740.14547270793,10207.7328241518,8158.65804364172,8316.28521120682,6876.34423040669
+"24","David",25056.0603177346,18568.1244433312,13967.1754802908,14729.3797304364,13881.077985652,7983.94191750583,7372.32080934897,13490.2958542648,7416.44445241449,5705.11629768361,NA,NA,NA,8439.30741462823,9248.67056146581,7020.15040389554,6804.46053660144,7548.62493387168,7272.74012027606,5580.63854904201
+"99","William",22067.113773237,15659.7907633039,5157.34425436552,13668.1382042484,12767.7291797417,1701.68742228137,2330.65068014757,10813.3678403267,1718.81389152811,10628.4854350207,NA,NA,NA,7621.11741555248,6465.28860673598,6975.67160241897,7469.5414411967,5083.79709263975,7378.83718126914,6050.59444162959
+"67","Mary",19835.2132804905,15324.3228373496,13031.4244819925,11549.7340055241,11342.9804422785,5060.05781412621,3797.01038289754,9800.03527587973,4656.1636818867,9056.94415461672,NA,NA,NA,6814.76214636444,6526.01530810198,6326.12161229861,6127.95954667401,4383.15912039854,6277.22898955198,5483.31893317764
+"21","Christopher",NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA
+"48","Joseph",9905.39108334182,7174.45941342625,6709.13769253622,6148.28000993819,4878.92076819194,3766.96761103243,3082.37558260986,5813.38843132476,3746.48564529878,4575.12938539398,NA,NA,NA,3350.98813564738,2847.98574632943,3893.65097177473,3180.54951615275,3052.94076492498,3219.15788011466,2953.28450449945
+"82","Richard",14356.8524451693,10510.3083782287,7475.9888063436,8294.42316454356,7539.52463257213,3900.70039783559,3374.79117910323,7825.00107576039,3534.48592724392,6488.08909520013,NA,NA,NA,4556.70658126487,5304.49150105711,4063.60521458112,4336.19159109949,3828.15134506757,4287.76120270099,3091.65688155537
+"23","Daniel",12316.7780944874,8472.57184174991,6172.11684967119,6483.08042701655,5688.9414881452,8916.68998709151,7689.90476128376,7265.84061864957,7937.97424597201,4611.42045608288,NA,NA,NA,3707.55260827581,3355.78753231111,2986.01239806311,4814.30969620907,3887.88522152229,3514.03450777333,2565.77136880745
+"96","Thomas",12122.6742791561,8392.91970123823,7339.02860002431,7482.09431260294,7021.46382136281,1403.62790193766,938.657301545009,6554.07377609739,1392.98354704502,5343.12639739124,NA,NA,NA,4525.23875763118,4092.92568352602,723.741554324375,3965.59384318073,3437.67930190306,4863.70340078104,3231.24577334247
+"68","Matthew",NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA
+"42","Jennifer",12786.8094162309,9587.85619148557,6760.17833327087,6890.91455180973,7942.80482425029,3734.85198512614,3493.64115496868,6383.10044846552,3407.51448804857,5433.59450854971,NA,NA,NA,4168.96851485375,4103.42502933492,3317.17710838062,3845.88070289281,4069.44260540816,3611.28988724838,2994.82488550718
+"18","Charles",14977.7364863173,10714.6834148205,9611.60854198764,8940.53958855659,8256.22417737215,896.101570642626,594.043751400778,6879.92740141814,769.411148078419,7089.74933156643,NA,NA,NA,5225.94744790512,4343.1269892148,4561.55470560742,4667.98267779497,3432.01583282427,4766.42223652668,4072.30513435898
+"9","Anthony",NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA
+"77","Patricia",11205.4787595933,8130.50751007365,7051.54819559552,6509.71419346922,6220.69886800103,4083.30994535665,3503.31655925871,5396.07188755839,3647.46578301555,4880.69501467587,NA,NA,NA,3384.02320235856,3382.0365551892,3412.23695956974,3490.2962619542,2236.84248335889,3366.01952816709,3036.98693226942
+"62","Linda",12092.3871413313,9247.16067328123,7285.96356716985,6681.56538038965,6714.39475381551,2447.51357394225,1969.25343313059,5927.6774072773,2175.14665328952,5382.55632903655,NA,NA,NA,3910.36799242412,3809.25155959413,3425.72249945994,3725.86633274598,3062.37921608242,3624.90418083418,3211.99295442603
+"66","Mark",9368.70696605657,8189.30425322347,5558.58805597028,4570.49562730225,4382.62989491142,1508.69831211492,1232.88145178821,5964.8689706833,1527.38081379791,4405.49784213841,NA,NA,NA,3639.01752851825,4192.19400520269,2838.14785350277,3051.66142742583,1811.77602332064,2045.74460158949,2010.93578090779
+"31","Elizabeth",9077.11944668312,6818.80149092169,5120.19002126446,5091.43430739161,4930.82711575234,5273.10417119864,5218.83639602196,4716.66369632935,5051.94877383388,3974.14089649862,NA,NA,NA,3191.86072712951,3060.47286828708,2655.43574284727,2772.88905866037,2159.42185101166,2859.91106403937,2129.71214419378
diff --git a/most-common-name/adjustments.csv b/most-common-name/adjustments.csv
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+,Miller,Anderson,Martin,Smith,Thompson,Wilson,Moore,White,Taylor,Davis,Johnson,Brown,Jones,Thomas,Williams,Jackson,Lee,Garcia,Martinez,RodriguezJohn,8.4,6.9,13.4,-23.5,3.6,2.5,3.6,1.7,0.4,-3.8,-35.2,-34.3,-26.5,5.1,-11.3,-27.7,-8.3,-66.4,-63.6,-69.5Michael,18.1,2.4,13,5.6,6.7,2.6,15.7,-1.7,0.6,2.5,-4.8,4.2,-2.4,2.9,-8.1,-16.8,-9.8,-54.7,-54.4,-63.2James,20.3,24,35.9,21.1,33.6,40.9,43,41,37.4,32.8,9.6,25.4,8.9,24.8,20.7,19.8,12.2,-84.4,-83.9,-87.4Robert,29.6,27,16.8,8.7,18,22,17.2,18.1,39.2,7.2,5.9,14.2,12.6,4.8,-1.3,-1.8,12.1,-57.4,-55.1,-61David,27.9,28.1,15.8,10.8,11,12.6,8.8,16.2,-1.5,-44.7,3.5,10.3,5,0.9,-7.3,-15.4,10.1,-30.5,-28.5,-31.7Mary,21.5,18.2,26.2,14.7,18.5,18.9,22.8,22.5,16,14.8,11.7,13.1,12.2,18.9,13.1,8.7,-16.4,-42.4,-41.3,-54William,22.5,7,33.3,16.6,29.3,21.5,31.9,38.2,29.2,23.1,4.3,22.3,15.4,19.8,-59.1,9.6,-11.4,-82.3,-80.2,-74.2Richard,24.1,22.9,12.6,6.2,8.4,1.7,7.3,12.2,5,5.2,-2,3.9,-4.6,-2.3,-17,-21.6,-6.6,-43.2,-43,-47.7Thomas,12.9,3,22.1,-2.6,-3.5,9.7,32.2,13.2,4.3,-5.9,-15,1.8,-3.5,-81.1,-11.5,-11,-8.9,-77.8,-75.6,-84.2Jennifer,24.9,17.3,22.5,16.7,15.2,14.8,11.5,14.8,14.9,8.7,10.3,6.5,24,-1.6,-7.4,-6.3,22.5,-32.9,-32.2,-33.2Patricia,20.9,10.7,25.3,17.1,16.7,6.7,19,17.2,19.4,11.8,7.1,15.2,11.2,15.9,10.6,8.8,-22.9,-16,-16.9,-23.3Joseph,-8.9,-34.8,0.1,-27.6,-24.8,-26.1,-20.4,-10.6,-23.9,-26.7,-33.9,-23.9,-39,-7.5,-26.4,-26,-26.4,-45.8,-40.3,-52.8Linda,34,25.8,29.6,27.5,24.8,24.4,29.3,26.1,28.6,24.4,22.9,19.3,21.1,17.4,15.3,16.1,6.5,-49.2,-50,-56.5Maria,-77.6,-77.3,-52.1,-78.8,-76.4,-77.4,-79.3,-77.7,-80.3,-79.7,-78.3,-78.5,-79.4,-75.6,-79.4,-80.9,-77.5,663.9,614.1,639.8Charles,36.3,25.7,29.3,38.4,38.1,45.7,49,43.4,41.2,43.6,24.8,39.9,30.5,37,33.3,29,4.6,-83.7,-84.5,-88.5Barbara,35.5,25.3,25.1,24,20.6,25.8,24.6,25.2,24.7,24.2,20.3,26.7,16.2,16.6,14.8,18.5,-18.7,-66.9,-67.5,-67.9Mark,42.1,45.9,-38.5,4.1,32.4,22,-23.1,-16.8,11,7.3,14.7,-14,-16.7,2.5,-7.3,-23.4,-33.6,-67,-63,-71.3Daniel,19.9,-19.1,10.3,-5.2,-6.4,-13.9,-8.5,-5,21.3,-22.2,-17.8,-15.5,-25.1,-25.3,-28.7,-32.3,-1.3,35.1,33.2,24Susan,32.1,28.4,15.8,3.9,5.4,3.5,3.5,-0.9,3,-5.8,-6.5,-4.6,-17.1,-1.5,-24.2,-31.9,3.7,-68.2,-68,-71.7Elizabeth,13.3,7.4,13.5,1.7,9.1,7.9,8.4,4,1.7,-2.4,-3.7,-3.4,-5.5,-3.3,-13.9,-18.2,-20.2,16.3,23.4,22.5

diff --git a/most-common-name/aging-curve.csv b/most-common-name/aging-curve.csv
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+Decade,Age,Male,Female,Male,Female1900,113,0,0,0,01910,103,45,318,0.00045,0.003181920,93,4154,11403,0.04154,0.114031930,83,28836,44336,0.28836,0.443361940,73,58728,70955,0.58728,0.709551950,63,78170,86389,0.7817,0.863891960,53,87064,92468,0.87064,0.924681970,43,92710,95619,0.9271,0.956191980,33,96010,97619,0.9601,0.976191990,23,97802,98570,0.97802,0.98572000,13,99003,99178,0.99003,0.991782010,3,99348,99449,0.99348,0.99449
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		,Miller,Anderson,Martin,Smith,Thompson,Wilson,Moore,White,Taylor,Davis,Johnson,Brown,Jones,Thomas,Williams,Jackson,Lee,Garcia,Martinez,RodriguezJohn,8.4,6.9,13.4,-23.5,3.6,2.5,3.6,1.7,0.4,-3.8,-35.2,-34.3,-26.5,5.1,-11.3,-27.7,-8.3,-66.4,-63.6,-69.5Michael,18.1,2.4,13,5.6,6.7,2.6,15.7,-1.7,0.6,2.5,-4.8,4.2,-2.4,2.9,-8.1,-16.8,-9.8,-54.7,-54.4,-63.2James,20.3,24,35.9,21.1,33.6,40.9,43,41,37.4,32.8,9.6,25.4,8.9,24.8,20.7,19.8,12.2,-84.4,-83.9,-87.4Robert,29.6,27,16.8,8.7,18,22,17.2,18.1,39.2,7.2,5.9,14.2,12.6,4.8,-1.3,-1.8,12.1,-57.4,-55.1,-61David,27.9,28.1,15.8,10.8,11,12.6,8.8,16.2,-1.5,-44.7,3.5,10.3,5,0.9,-7.3,-15.4,10.1,-30.5,-28.5,-31.7Mary,21.5,18.2,26.2,14.7,18.5,18.9,22.8,22.5,16,14.8,11.7,13.1,12.2,18.9,13.1,8.7,-16.4,-42.4,-41.3,-54William,22.5,7,33.3,16.6,29.3,21.5,31.9,38.2,29.2,23.1,4.3,22.3,15.4,19.8,-59.1,9.6,-11.4,-82.3,-80.2,-74.2Richard,24.1,22.9,12.6,6.2,8.4,1.7,7.3,12.2,5,5.2,-2,3.9,-4.6,-2.3,-17,-21.6,-6.6,-43.2,-43,-47.7Thomas,12.9,3,22.1,-2.6,-3.5,9.7,32.2,13.2,4.3,-5.9,-15,1.8,-3.5,-81.1,-11.5,-11,-8.9,-77.8,-75.6,-84.2Jennifer,24.9,17.3,22.5,16.7,15.2,14.8,11.5,14.8,14.9,8.7,10.3,6.5,24,-1.6,-7.4,-6.3,22.5,-32.9,-32.2,-33.2Patricia,20.9,10.7,25.3,17.1,16.7,6.7,19,17.2,19.4,11.8,7.1,15.2,11.2,15.9,10.6,8.8,-22.9,-16,-16.9,-23.3Joseph,-8.9,-34.8,0.1,-27.6,-24.8,-26.1,-20.4,-10.6,-23.9,-26.7,-33.9,-23.9,-39,-7.5,-26.4,-26,-26.4,-45.8,-40.3,-52.8Linda,34,25.8,29.6,27.5,24.8,24.4,29.3,26.1,28.6,24.4,22.9,19.3,21.1,17.4,15.3,16.1,6.5,-49.2,-50,-56.5Maria,-77.6,-77.3,-52.1,-78.8,-76.4,-77.4,-79.3,-77.7,-80.3,-79.7,-78.3,-78.5,-79.4,-75.6,-79.4,-80.9,-77.5,663.9,614.1,639.8Charles,36.3,25.7,29.3,38.4,38.1,45.7,49,43.4,41.2,43.6,24.8,39.9,30.5,37,33.3,29,4.6,-83.7,-84.5,-88.5Barbara,35.5,25.3,25.1,24,20.6,25.8,24.6,25.2,24.7,24.2,20.3,26.7,16.2,16.6,14.8,18.5,-18.7,-66.9,-67.5,-67.9Mark,42.1,45.9,-38.5,4.1,32.4,22,-23.1,-16.8,11,7.3,14.7,-14,-16.7,2.5,-7.3,-23.4,-33.6,-67,-63,-71.3Daniel,19.9,-19.1,10.3,-5.2,-6.4,-13.9,-8.5,-5,21.3,-22.2,-17.8,-15.5,-25.1,-25.3,-28.7,-32.3,-1.3,35.1,33.2,24Susan,32.1,28.4,15.8,3.9,5.4,3.5,3.5,-0.9,3,-5.8,-6.5,-4.6,-17.1,-1.5,-24.2,-31.9,3.7,-68.2,-68,-71.7Elizabeth,13.3,7.4,13.5,1.7,9.1,7.9,8.4,4,1.7,-2.4,-3.7,-3.4,-5.5,-3.3,-13.9,-18.2,-20.2,16.3,23.4,22.5
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		Decade,Age,Male,Female,Male,Female1900,113,0,0,0,01910,103,45,318,0.00045,0.003181920,93,4154,11403,0.04154,0.114031930,83,28836,44336,0.28836,0.443361940,73,58728,70955,0.58728,0.709551950,63,78170,86389,0.7817,0.863891960,53,87064,92468,0.87064,0.924681970,43,92710,95619,0.9271,0.956191980,33,96010,97619,0.9601,0.976191990,23,97802,98570,0.97802,0.98572000,13,99003,99178,0.99003,0.991782010,3,99348,99449,0.99348,0.99449
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