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avallecam committed Apr 2, 2024
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20 changes: 10 additions & 10 deletions episodes/quantify-transmissibility.Rmd
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Expand Up @@ -30,9 +30,9 @@ withr::local_options(list(mc.cores = 4))

Learners should familiarise themselves with following concepts before working through this tutorial:

**Statistics** : probability distributions, principle of Bayesian analysis.
**Statistics**: probability distributions, principle of Bayesian analysis.

**Epidemic theory** : Effective reproduction number.
**Epidemic theory**: Effective reproduction number.

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The first step is to load the `{EpiNow2}` package :
The first step is to load the `{EpiNow2}` package:

```{r, eval = FALSE}
library(EpiNow2)
Expand All @@ -100,8 +100,8 @@ dplyr::as_tibble(incidence2::covidregionaldataUK)

To use the data, we must format the data to have two columns:

+ `date` : the date (as a date object see `?is.Date()`),
+ `confirm` : number of confirmed cases on that date.
+ `date`: the date (as a date object see `?is.Date()`),
+ `confirm`: number of confirmed cases on that date.

Let's use `{tidyr}` and `incidence2::incidence()` for this:

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -139,7 +139,7 @@ ggplot(cases[1:90, ], aes(x = date, y = confirm)) +


### Delay distributions
We assume there are delays from the time of infection until the time a case is reported. We specify these delays as distributions to account for the uncertainty in individual level differences. The delay can consist of multiple types of delays/processes. A typical delay from time of infection to case reporting may consist of :
We assume there are delays from the time of infection until the time a case is reported. We specify these delays as distributions to account for the uncertainty in individual level differences. The delay can consist of multiple types of delays/processes. A typical delay from time of infection to case reporting may consist of:

<p class="text-center" style="background-color: aliceblue">**time from infection to symptom onset** (the [incubation period](../learners/reference.md#incubation)) + **time from symptom onset to case notification** (the reporting time)
.</p>
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -325,7 +325,7 @@ generation_time_fixed <- dist_spec(
)
```

*Note : in the code below fixed distributions are used instead of variable. This is to speed up computation time. It is generally recommended to use variable distributions that account for additional uncertainty.*
*Note: in the code below fixed distributions are used instead of variable. This is to speed up computation time. It is generally recommended to use variable distributions that account for additional uncertainty.*

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Expand Down Expand Up @@ -425,9 +425,9 @@ A factor describing expected change in daily cases based on the posterior probab

The outbreak data of the start of the COVID-19 pandemic from the United Kingdom from the R package `{incidence2}` includes the region in which the cases were recorded. To find regional estimates of the effective reproduction number and cases, we must format the data to have three columns:

+ `date` : the date,
+ `region` : the region,
+ `confirm` : number of confirmed cases for a region on a given date.
+ `date`: the date,
+ `region`: the region,
+ `confirm`: number of confirmed cases for a region on a given date.

```{r}
regional_cases <-
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