Replicating Shimer (2012)

This repository manages codes for replicating “Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment” (Shimer, 2012), and extends the framework using the latest data during the Covid-19 pandemic.

How to run the package

First, install the package by pip

pip install git+https://github.com/caibengbu/ecma33330_proj.git

After it is installed, simply run

python -m reassessing_the_ins_and_outs_of_unemployment --start=197601 --end=202110

This command activates an analysis from January 1976 to October 2021. You can input any interval as long as there is raw data.

You can specify working directory by passing the --dir argument

python -m reassessing_the_ins_and_outs_of_unemployment --start=197601 --end=202110 --dir=path/to/wd

You can also specify directory with downloaded raw data by passing the --dir_raw argument

python -m reassessing_the_ins_and_outs_of_unemployment --start=197601 --end=202110 --dir_raw=path/to/raw

This automatically set the working directory to the parent directory of path/to/raw.

The -q argument

When the raw data is pre-downloaded and one wants to skip checking the completeness of the files, the -q argument can be added to avoid automated download and checking.

python -m reassessing_the_ins_and_outs_of_unemployment --start=197601 --end=202110 -q

Sources of Raw Data

There are two sources of raw CPS Basic Monthly data: NBER.org and Census.gov. Since Census.gov does not support downloading data files older than 1994 but is more up-to-date than NBER.org in terms of newly published data, we download CPS Basic data older than 1994 from NBER and newer ones from Census.

Environment and Prerequisite Installations

This package is built on and tested on Python 3.6. It is OS independent, tested on MacOS 10.15.7 and Windows 10. In order to retrieve and install the package, pip is required. No other manual installation is needed.

Outputs

If executed without error, there would be an output/ folder and a figure/ folder. output/ contains the monthly transitional probability and transitional rate between employment status. figure/ contains the plot in which hypothetical unemployment rate and actual unemployment rate is plotted together for comparison.