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Update 03-M1-model-specification.Rmd
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Minor corrections to a few equations have been made
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JonBrodziak authored and ChristineStawitz-NOAA committed Oct 26, 2023
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Expand Up @@ -34,15 +34,15 @@ Code can be found [here](http://kaskr.github.io/adcomp/group__R__style__distribu

#### Normal Distribution

$$f(y) = \frac{1}{\sigma\sqrt{2\pi}}exp\Bigg(-\frac{(x-\mu)^2}{2\sigma^2} \Bigg),$$
$$f(x) = \frac{1}{\sigma\sqrt{2\pi}}\mathrm{exp}\Bigg(-\frac{(x-\mu)^2}{2\sigma^2} \Bigg),$$

where $\mu$ is the mean of the distribution and $\sigma^2$ is the variance.

#### Multinomial Distribution

For $k$ categories and sample size, $n$,

$$f(y) = \frac{n!}{y_{1}!... y_{k}!}p^{y_{1}}_{1}...p^{y_{k}}_{k},$$
$$f(\underline{y}) = \frac{n!}{y_{1}!... y_{k}!}p^{y_{1}}_{1}...p^{y_{k}}_{k},$$

where $\sum^{k}_{i=1}y_{i} = n$, $p_{i} > 0$, and $\sum^{k}_{i=1}p_{i} = 1$.

Expand All @@ -54,16 +54,16 @@ $\sigma^{2}_{i} = np_{i}(1-p_{i})$

#### Lognormal Distribution

$$ \frac{1.0}{ x\sigma\sqrt{2\pi} }exp(-\frac{(ln(x) - mu)^{2}}{2\sigma^{2}}),$$
$$f(x) = \frac{1.0}{ x\sigma\sqrt{2\pi} }\mathrm{exp}\Bigg(-\frac{(\mathrm{ln}(x) - \mu)^{2}}{2\sigma^{2}}\Bigg),$$

where $\mu$ is the mean of the distribution of $log(x)$ and $\sigma^2$ is the variance of $log(x)$.
where $\mu$ is the mean of the distribution of $\mathrm{ln(x)}$ and $\sigma^2$ is the variance of $\mathrm{ln}(x)$.

## Beverton-Holt recruitment function

For parity with existing stock assessment models, the first recruitment
option in FIMS is the steepness parameterization of the Beverton-Holt model (Beverton and Holt, 1957),

$$R_t =\frac{0.8R_0hS_{t-1}}{0.2R_0\phi_0(1-h) + S_{t-1}(h-0.2)}$$
$$R_t(S_{t-1}) =\frac{0.8R_0hS_{t-1}}{0.2R_0\phi_0(1-h) + S_{t-1}(h-0.2)}$$
where $R_t$ and $S_t$ are mean recruitment and spawning biomass at time
$t$, $h$ is steepness, and $\phi_0$ is the unfished
spawning biomass per recruit. The initial FIMS model implements a
Expand All @@ -82,13 +82,13 @@ and thus the bias correction applies an
adjustment factor, $b_t=\frac{E[SD(\hat{r}_{t})]^2}{\sigma_R^2}$ (Methot and
Taylor, 2011). The adjusted bias correction, mean recruitment, and recruitment deviations are
then used to compute realized recruitment ($R^*_t$),
$$R^*_t=R_t\mathrm{exp}(\hat{r}_{t}-b_t\frac{\sigma_R^2}{2})$$
$$R^*_t=R_t\cdot\mathrm{exp}\Bigg(\hat{r}_{t}-b_t\frac{\sigma_R^2}{2}\Bigg)$$
The recruitment function should take as input the values of $S_t$,
$h$, $R_0$, $\phi_0$, $\sigma_R$, and $\hat{r}_{t}$, and return mean-unbiased ($R_t$) and
realized ($R^*_t$) recruitment.

## Logistic function with extensions
$$y_i=\frac{1}{1+\mathrm{exp}(-s *(x_i-\nu))}$$
$$y_i=\frac{1}{1+\mathrm{exp}(-s \cdot(x_i-\nu))}$$

Where $y_i$ is the quantity of interest (proportion mature, selected,
etc.), $x_i$ is the index (can be age or size or any other quantity),
Expand All @@ -99,24 +99,24 @@ function implementation.

The parameterization for the double logistic curve is specified as

$$y_i=\frac{1.0}{ 1.0 + exp(-1.0 * s_1(x_i - \nu_1))} \left(1-\frac{1.0}{ 1.0 + exp(-1.0 * s_2 (x_i - \nu_2))} \right)$$
$$y_i=\frac{1.0}{ 1.0 + \mathrm{exp}(-1.0 \cdot s_1(x_i - \nu_1))} \left(1-\frac{1.0}{ 1.0 + \mathrm{exp}(-1.0 \cdot s_2 (x_i - \nu_2))} \right)$$
Where $s_1$ and and $\nu_1$ are the slope and median (50%) parameters for the ascending limb of the curve, and $s_2$ and and $\nu_2$ are the slope and median parameters for the descending limb of the curve. This is currently only implemented for the selectivity module.

## Catch and fishing mortality

The Baranov catch equation relates catch to instantaneous fishing and
natural mortality.

$$ C_{f,a,t}=\frac{F_{f,a,t}}{F_{f,a,t}+M}(1-\mathrm{exp}(-(F_{f,a,t}+M)))N_{a,t}$$
$$ C_{f,a,t}=\frac{F_{f,a,t}}{F_{f,a,t}+M}\Bigg[1-\mathrm{exp}(-F_{f,a,t}-M)\Bigg]N_{a,t}$$

Where $C_{f,a,t}$ is the catch at age $a$ at time $t$ for fleet $f$, $F$
Where $C_{f,a,t}$ is the catch at age $a$ at time $t$ for fleet $f$, $F_t$
is instantaneous fishing mortality, $M$ is assumed constant over ages
and time in the minimum viable assessment model, $N_a,t$ is the number
and time in the minimum viable assessment model, $N_{a,t}$ is the number
of age $a$ fish at time $t$.

$$F_{a,t}=\sum_{a=0}^A s_{a,f,t}F$$
$$F_{f,a,t}=\sum_{a=0}^A s_{f,a}F_t$$

$s_a,f$ is selectivity at age $a$ for fleet $f$. Selectivity-at-age is
$s_{f,a}$ is selectivity at age $a$ for fleet $f$. Selectivity-at-age is
constant over time.

Catch is in metric tons and survey is in number, so calculating catch
Expand All @@ -125,7 +125,7 @@ $$ CW_t=\sum_{a=0}^A C_{a,t}w_a $$

Survey numbers are calculated as follows

$$I_t=q\sum_{a=0}^AN_{a,t}$$
$$I_t=q_t\sum_{a=0}^AN_{a,t}$$
Where $I_t$ is the survey index and $q_t$ is survey catchability at time
$t$.

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -183,7 +183,7 @@ The initial equilibrium recruitment ($R_{eq}$) is calculated as follows:

$$R_{eq} = \frac{R_{0}(4h\phi_{F} - (1-h)\phi_{0})}{(5h-1)\phi_{F}} $$
where $\phi_{F}$ is the initial spawning biomass per recruitment given
fishing mortality.
the initial fishing mortality $F$.

## Likelihood calculations

Expand Down

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