Version 2.1.0 Released 2019 December 6

Version 2.1.0 is an updated based on the new model validation features in the EPIDEMIA forecasting system. Model validation functions and evaluation tools have been built directly into the R package and associated R project. This releases: adds skill scores - comparison of the accuracy statistics from the forecast model over the naive models, adds an R-squared accuracy statistic (variance explained) and removed the proportion in interval, added a parameter for simulating any reporting lag of epidemiological data, added metadata info to the validation results, and other minor fixes and documentation updates. For the formatted validation report, see the associated R project: epidemiar-demo v2.1.0+ (https://github.com/EcoGRAPH/epidemiar-demo/releases/latest).

We suggest installing using remotes::install_github() function as this will automatically install dependent packages (the modified build_opts will allow vignettes to be installed also).

remotes::install_github("ecograph/[email protected]", build = TRUE, build_opts = c("--no-resave-data", "--no-manual"))

If you are not installing via remotes::install_github(), and you are installing from the binary/source files: make sure that you have all the package dependencies installed (listed in the DESCRIPTION), as this does not automagically happen.

See the included package vignettes, and also epidemiar-demo (https://github.com/EcoGRAPH/epidemiar-demo/releases/latest) for a full demo and walkthrough of how to create environmentally-mediated disease forecast reports. Vignettes are also attached to this release in pdf form.

Known Issues:

If you are getting the "cannot open URL http://www.stats.ox.ac.uk/pub/RWin/bin/windows/contrib/3.6/PACKAGES" error on installation, you can work around this by installing the dependent packages first (e.g. install.packages("surveillance"), etc.