Skip to content

Commit

Permalink
some cleanup
Browse files Browse the repository at this point in the history
  • Loading branch information
1dancook committed Jan 5, 2024
1 parent 15addc8 commit 060468b
Showing 1 changed file with 7 additions and 9 deletions.
16 changes: 7 additions & 9 deletions _posts/2024-01-05-questionable-quake-reporting.md
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -11,7 +11,7 @@ Here's the section from [the article](https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20240105/
>
> また、新潟県と石川県、富山県、福井県、長野県、岐阜県で震度6弱から5弱を観測しました。
>
> 能登地方やその周辺を震源とする地震はその後も相次ぎ、震度1以上の揺れを観測した地震は5日午前4時までに786回にのぼっています。
> **能登地方やその周辺を震源とする地震はその後も相次ぎ、震度1以上の揺れを観測した地震は5日午前4時までに786回にのぼっています。**
>
> 気象庁は、揺れの強かった地域では、家屋の倒壊や土砂災害などの危険性が高まっているため、1日の地震から1週間ほどは最大震度7程度の揺れに注意するよう呼びかけています。
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -77,10 +77,9 @@ quakes.loc[dt_mask].ttl.value_counts()

```text
震源・震度情報 537
震度速報 105
震度速報 105
震源に関する情報 41
顕著な地震の震源要素更新のお知らせ 4
Name: ttl, dtype: int64
顕著な地震の震源要素更新のお知らせ 4
```

I see a large number of actual epicenter entries (537). Let's see where those might be. The `en_anm` column is English area name. Let's see the value counts for those, but just the epicenter:
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -109,13 +108,12 @@ Northern Miyagi Prefecture 1
Eastern Region · Fuji Five Lakes, Yamanashi Prefecture 1
Off the east Coast of Osumi Peninsula 1
Iyonada Sea 1
Name: en_anm, dtype: int64
```

Just to double check another thing - each area has a code. I had been using `390` since that seems to have been the code for Noto. Let's check the counts for those codes according to the English name, with the same filter from the above:

```python
quakes.loc[dt_mask & (quakes.ttl == "震源・震度情報")].groupby(["acd", "en_anm"]).en_anm.co unt()
quakes.loc[dt_mask & (quakes.ttl == "震源・震度情報")].groupby(["acd", "en_anm"]).en_anm.count()
```

**Result:**
Expand All @@ -139,24 +137,24 @@ acd en_anm
798 Adjacent Sea of Tokara Islands 1
820 Off the east Coast of Osumi Peninsula 1
854 Adjacent Sea of Ishigakijima Island 1
Name: en_anm, dtype: int64
```

I'm a little rusty on my Japanese geography, but I do know that at least 4 of these entries are relevant:

```text
acd en_anm
390 Noto, Ishikawa Prefecture 318
495 Off the Coast of Noto Peninsula 145
379 Off the Coast of Joetsu and Chuetsu, Niigata Prefecture 18
498 Adjacent Sado 35
```

Adding those together, I get a total of **526**. The other numbers are so small it is negligible. Remember, NHK's number was *786* -- and that was almost 16 hours ago.
Adding those together, I get a total of **526**. The counts from other areas are so small they make little difference. Remember, NHK's number was *786* -- and that was almost 16 hours ago.

### Wrapping up

Now with this information I *do* understand that my method of just checking for quakes from `390` was not adequate since there are other areas that are related and likely have an impact (as far as an aftershock is concerned).

In a follow up at some point it would be good to actually use coordinates as a window. Another interesting angle would be to see how many earthquakes had a registered intensity on Noto peninsula.

However, the number here is less than what NHK reported. It seems there was either an error on NHK's part, or JMA shares non-public data with them - but it can't be intential error... the government run media would never lie to us.
However, the number here is less than what NHK reported. It seems there was either an error on NHK's part, or JMA shares non-public data with them - but it can't be an intentional error... the government run media would never lie to us.

0 comments on commit 060468b

Please sign in to comment.