scott phillips system

Dragan, as a general comment I think your technical analysis is probably too good at present. You see the possibilities very well and you analysis is usually on point. I'm sorry to say, that this plus $2 will buy you a cup of coffee ;-) You seem, from the outside to be "looking for a setup" which is an emotionally difficult way to sustain high performance.

In your situation what I would be doing is find ONE SPECIFIC SETUP which is repeatable and behaves the same way most times. This is what BobbyLow has done, and his results are now exceeding mine!

For example, my core daily chart setup is Hammer candles in an uptrend where the candle touches the 8EMA, uptrend defined as 8EMA> 21EMA. Setup is activated on a break of the high, and I have a condition that if the upper bollinger is falling there needs to be 1.2R to the upper bollinger to take the trade.

This will look nothing like your setup, but because my setup looks exactly the same all the time, I can design an exit algo which is perfectly suited to it. That optimization of exit routine is going to double my performance.

My intraday setup is looking for an uptrend on 3 out of 4 of daily weekly 240 and 60m charts, then a horizontal support area on the 15m and a false break below it.

Take a look, for example, of my recent trades in Silver which happens to be the chart I have open. According to my exit algo I have 3.9R win, breakeven trade, 1.28R win, 1.8R win, -1R loss, and one trade currently open approximately breakeven.

When you get SPECIFIC on your system design you will improve your results

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Scott Phillips • 18 days ago
The EURUSD is different from stock market in that is it virtually immune to manipulation. Soros said "God himself couldn't move the eurusd alone"

Also since currencies are a much larger boat than equities, like a supertanker to a cargo ship, they take longer to turn around. Also bigger players in the market means they leave bigger footprints, and our job as technical analysts is not to predict the future but to see the footprints in the sand of the big players.

You are correct in that if you sold higher up, you would be looking for the exits now. We are ready for a reversal attempt, whether or not that attempt fails or succeeds, nobody knows. Over time, trading with the trend as opposed to trying to time reversals is a better strategy. This is because our natural instincts are to get a powerful emotional high for being right or being validated.

Having our opinions validated explains why facebook is so successful and why we post on this site. It is a weakness in the human psyche which you can exploit in your trading. Look at really good chartists like Tim Knight, who would rather be right than make money

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Scott Phillips • 18 days ago
Dragan, I would be very wary of "this is the record" type thinking, since the nature of markets is to move further/longer than anyone thinks is possible. At a deep level, looking at a chart for a reversal is, over time, a sucker play and a poor way to think. The fact that we are looking like record moves indicates that the market is changing type, therefore previous references are by definition invalid.

Show 100 beginner traders that chart and 90 of them will be looking for a reversal signal. Show 100 expert traders and most of them will be looking for a pulllback to get short again. You are not a beginner trader :-)

In this situation we have a market which is in a powerful trend. It gapped down at the start of last week, and instead of reversing (as gaps are inclined to do) it gapped and went. We have a market which went sideways in a range 4 days of last week and broke to the downside on Friday. In this instance continuation is a higher probability.