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metadata.yml
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title: "Spatial Structure is More Than Habitat Amount: A Metapopulation Approach is Necessary to Project Distributions Under Climate Change"
running_title: ""
abstract: "Projecting species distributions under climate change requires going beyond climate suitability models. We propose that metapopulation theory can be used to leverage species distribution models while accounting for landscape spatial structure, biotic interactions and demography. While reviewing how metapopulation theory reacts to climate-induced distribution shifts, we found that habitat-climate mismatch can generate non-equilibrium dynamics, linear change in habitat occupancy generates non-linear distribution change, and the effect of environmental change on habitat can have counterintuitive effects on higher trophic levels. We illustrated our findings by developing habitat suitability models for the Bicknell's Thrush (*Catharus bicknelli*) a threatened bird confined to perturbed balsam fir forests. Under climate warming, the Bicknell's Thrush distribution shifts northwards from the effect of climate alone while the distribution of its associated vegetation remains stable despite warming. The arising mismatch between climate and vegetation changes patch size, connectivity, and habitat structure potentially to different extent, influencing species persistence and suggesting that habitat alone is not enough to characterize regional distribution changes. Our results emphasize the importance of both habitat and landscape spatial structure in assessing persistence for which metapopulation theory is an ideal framework to further advance our understanding of species distribution."
keywords:
- "Climate change"
- "Metapopulation theory"
- "Species distribution"
- "Range shift"
- "Transient dynamics"
highlights: ""
supporting-files: ""
language: "en"
license: "CC-BY4.0"
github-repo: "vcameron1/Metapop_ms"
bibliography: "https://usherbrooke-my.sharepoint.com/:u:/g/personal/camv2202_usherbrooke_ca/EdR285Fc_IdGtSxbq68qZC8BhsGjfDDWUMRESK0DLVqsLQ?e=zXlwkx&download=1"
results: "https://usherbrooke-my.sharepoint.com/:u:/g/personal/camv2202_usherbrooke_ca/EbOlKor9maNKo4Gg4WL3FUYBUXzZm-uCZl_RVghRGqj0ow?e=ZYOedp&download=1"
zenodoDOI: ""
google-analytics: ""
authors:
- affiliations: [1, 2]
email: [email protected]
familyname: Cameron
givennames: Victor
orcid: 0000-0003-0624-4201
corresponding: TRUE
- affiliations: [1, 2, 3, 4]
email: [email protected]
familyname: Blanchet
givennames: F. Guillaume
orcid: [0000-0001-5149-2488]
- affiliations: [5]
email: [email protected]
familyname: Boulanger
givennames: Yan
orcid: [0000-0001-6181-8509]
- affiliations: [6, 7]
email: [email protected]
familyname: Tremblay
givennames: Junior A.
orcid: [0000-0003-4930-0939]
- affiliations: [1, 2]
email: [email protected]
familyname: Gravel
givennames: Dominique
orcid: 0000-0002-4498-7076
affiliations:
- index: 1
name: Département de biologie, Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, Québec, Canada
- index: 2
name: Québec Centre for Biodiversity Sciences, McGill University, Montréal, Québec, Canada
- index: 3
name: Département de mathématiques, Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, Québec, Canada
- index: 4
name: Département des sciences de la santé communautaire, Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, Québec, Canada
- index: 5
name: Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre, Natural Resources Canada, Québec, Québec, Canada
- index: 6
name: Environment and Climate Change Canada, Wildlife Research Division, Québec, Québec, Canada
- index: 7
name: Département des sciences du bois et de la forêt, Université Laval, Québec, Canada
significance: ""
acknowledgments: ""
data_availability: "We performed all analyses in the R programming language and the code necessary to reproduce the analyses, figures, and manuscript are stored as a research compendium at <https://github.com/vcameron1/Metapop_ms>. The data that support the study are available from the Regroupement QuébecOiseaux (RQO), @mckenney_spatial_2013 and @boulanger_boreal_2021. Restrictions apply to the availability of RQO data, which were used under license for the current study, and so are not publicly available. Data are, however, available from the authors upon reasonable request and with written permission of RQO. Data from @boulanger_boreal_2021 are available from its authors upon request."
funding: "This research was supported by the BIOS² NSERC CREATE program. D.G. was supported by research grants from the Canada Research Chair program and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC)."
authorship: "VC and DG designed the study. VC, DG, and GB conceived the case-study model and YB and JT contributed expert knowledge in its development. VC developed the scripts to run the model and analyze the simulations, and wrote the first draft of the manuscript. All authors contributed to revisions."
conflicts-of-interest: "The authors declare no conflict of interest."
link-citations: true
figures-at-end: false
double-blind: true