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256C448 273.7 433.7 288 416 288H32C14.33 288 0 273.7 0 256zM416 448H32C14.33 448 0 433.7 0 416C0 398.3 14.33 384 32 384H416C433.7 384 448 398.3 448 416C448 433.7 433.7 448 416 448z"></path></svg></button></div></div></header><div class="alert-banner"><div class="content"><div class="text"><strong>COVID-19 vaccinations, cases, excess mortality, and much more</strong></div><a href="/coronavirus#explore-the-global-situation" data-track-note="covid-banner-click">Explore our COVID-19 data</a></div></div><main><article class="page no-sidebar thin-banner"><div class="offset-header"><header class="article-header"><div class="article-titles"><h1 class="entry-title">Can the world eradicate another disease?</h1></div></header></div><div class="content-wrapper"><div class="offset-content"><div class="content-and-footnotes"><div class="article-content"><section><div class="wp-block-columns is-style-sticky-right"><div class="wp-block-column"><div class="article-meta"><div class="authors-byline"><a href="/team">by Sophie Ochmann</a></div><div class="published-updated"><time>November 08, 2018</time></div></div><p>The eradication of a disease refers to the permanent and global reduction of infections to zero. We wrote a companion blog post to explain what makes a disease eradicable <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/what-makes-a-disease-eradicable" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">here</a>.</p><p>The good news is that the world has already eradicated two diseases. In 1980, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared Smallpox eradicated and in 2011, the <em>World Organization for Animal Health</em> (OIE) declared Rinderpest (a disease which only affected animals) eradicated. We discuss both diseases in our full entry on the <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/eradication-of-diseases#successfully-eradicated-diseases" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Eradication of Diseases</a> but also have a separate entry dedicated to <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/smallpox" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Smallpox</a>. Eradicable diseases that are expected to be eradicated next — <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/polio" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Polio</a>, Guinea worm and Yaws — are also discussed in <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/eradication-of-diseases#rinderpest" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">our entry</a> in greater detail.</p></div><div class="wp-block-column"></div></div><div class="wp-block-columns is-style-sticky-right"><div class="wp-block-column"><h4 id="so-where-does-the-world-stand-in-its-fight-to-eradicate-these-infectious-diseases">So where does the world stand in its fight to eradicate these infectious diseases?<a class="deep-link" href="#so-where-does-the-world-stand-in-its-fight-to-eradicate-these-infectious-diseases"></a></h4></div><div class="wp-block-column"></div></div><div class="wp-block-columns is-style-sticky-right"><div class="wp-block-column"><p>The chart displays the annual number of cases from diseases that we hope to eradicate.<a id="ref-1" class="ref" href="#note-1"><sup>1</sup></a> The default setting below shows the number of cases globally. But by clicking on the “Change country” function on the bottom left of the chart it is possible to see the number of cases for any country of the world.</p><p>Polio and Guinea worm are the diseases that have the best chances of being eradicated next. The number of cases of both have decreased dramatically over the last 35 years. In 2016, only 46 new paralytic polio cases were recorded and the wild poliovirus was in circulation in only two countries: Afghanistan and Pakistan. Guinea worm, or dracunculiasis, has been driven back even further. 2017 saw only 25 new infections worldwide, concentrated in the last two endemic countries: Chad and Ethiopia.</p><p>The story of rabies and yaws is more complicated. Even though rabies infections have steadily declined from an estimated 49,000 cases in 1990 to 13,000 in 2016, its reservoir in wild bats means elimination rather than eradication needs to be aimed for first (see our entry’s <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/eradication-of-diseases#rabies-a-disease-we-might-eliminate-if-not-eradicate" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">section on rabies</a> for more detail). Yaws cases are also declining but poor data availability makes the true extent of this decline harder to assess. Because data is very patchy, we cannot know for sure what progress we have made on reducing yaws’ disease burden. For instance, in our <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/yaws-status-and-case-numbers" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">interactive map on yaws</a> the endemicity status is unknown for all countries colored in yellow.</p></div><div class="wp-block-column"><figure data-grapher-src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/the-number-of-infections-from-eradicable-diseases" class="grapherPreview">
<a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/the-number-of-infections-from-eradicable-diseases" target="_blank">
<div><img src="https://ourworldindata.org/exports/the-number-of-infections-from-eradicable-diseases_v19_850x600.svg" width="850" height="600" loading="lazy" data-no-lightbox="" alt="The number of infections from eradicable diseases v19 850x600"></div>
<div class="interactionNotice">
<span class="icon"><svg aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" data-prefix="fas" data-icon="hand-pointer" class="svg-inline--fa fa-hand-pointer fa-w-14" role="img" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 448 617">
<path fill="currentColor" d="M448,344.59v96a40.36,40.36,0,0,1-1.06,9.16l-32,136A40,40,0,0,1,376,616.59H168a40,40,0,0,1-32.35-16.47l-128-176a40,40,0,0,1,64.7-47.06L104,420.58v-276a40,40,0,0,1,80,0v200h8v-40a40,40,0,1,1,80,0v40h8v-24a40,40,0,1,1,80,0v24h8a40,40,0,1,1,80,0Zm-256,80h-8v96h8Zm88,0h-8v96h8Zm88,0h-8v96h8Z" transform="translate(0 -0.41)"></path>
<path fill="currentColor" opacity="0.6" d="M239.76,234.78A27.5,27.5,0,0,1,217,192a87.76,87.76,0,1,0-145.9,0A27.5,27.5,0,1,1,25.37,222.6,142.17,142.17,0,0,1,1.24,143.17C1.24,64.45,65.28.41,144,.41s142.76,64,142.76,142.76a142.17,142.17,0,0,1-24.13,79.43A27.47,27.47,0,0,1,239.76,234.78Z" transform="translate(0 -0.41)"></path>
</svg></span>
<span class="label">Click to open interactive version</span>
</div>
</a>
</figure></div></div><div class="wp-block-columns is-style-sticky-right"><div class="wp-block-column"><h4 id="key-facts-about-eradicated-and-eradicable-diseases">Key facts about eradicated and eradicable diseases<a class="deep-link" href="#key-facts-about-eradicated-and-eradicable-diseases"></a></h4></div><div class="wp-block-column"></div></div><div class="wp-block-columns is-style-sticky-right"><div class="wp-block-column"><p>To compare these diseases, with respect to their disease burden, the means that exist against them or the progress we have made at reducing their case numbers, we have put together a summary table. <em>[Clicking on the table will open it in higher-resolution].</em> For comparison we have also included the three most lethal infectious diseases — Tuberculosis, <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://ourworldindata.org/hiv-aids" target="_blank">HIV/AIDS</a> and <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://ourworldindata.org/malaria" target="_blank">Malaria</a> — however these are currently classified as non-eradicable. Although all are infectious diseases, the variety of pathogens (the disease-causing organisms), prevention options and treatments is striking. Even the case-fatality rates — the likelihood with which an untreated infection will lead to death — range from zero to one hundred percent.</p></div><div class="wp-block-column"><figure class="wp-block-image"><img loading="lazy" width="750" height="282" src="https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2018/06/Key-facts-about-eradicated-and-eradicable-diseases-750x282.png" alt="Key facts about eradicated and eradicable diseases" class="wp-image-19273" srcset="https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2018/06/Key-facts-about-eradicated-and-eradicable-diseases-750x282.png 750w, https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2018/06/Key-facts-about-eradicated-and-eradicable-diseases-150x56.png 150w, https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2018/06/Key-facts-about-eradicated-and-eradicable-diseases-400x151.png 400w, https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2018/06/Key-facts-about-eradicated-and-eradicable-diseases-768x289.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 750px) 100vw, 750px" data-high-res-src="https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2018/06/Key-facts-about-eradicated-and-eradicable-diseases.png"></figure></div></div><div class="wp-block-columns is-style-sticky-right"><div class="wp-block-column"><h4 id="so-can-the-world-eradicate-another-disease-we-are-certainly-close">So, can the world eradicate another disease? We are certainly close.<a class="deep-link" href="#so-can-the-world-eradicate-another-disease-we-are-certainly-close"></a></h4></div><div class="wp-block-column"></div></div><div class="wp-block-columns is-style-sticky-right"><div class="wp-block-column"><p>Two diseases have already been eradicated – smallpox in 1980 and Rinderpest in 2011. There are now a number of diseases for which eradication seems possible. The number of polio and Guinea worm cases have already been driven back so substantially that with continued effort, their eradication in the next years is within reach. Where the fight against infectious disease might take humanity after that is hard to foresee. If we start measuring yaws’ disease burden accurately or if we eliminate dog-transmitted rabies, we might be able to make these diseases history soon, too. And if science uncovers new measures, we might even be able to work towards the eradication of diseases such as tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, and malaria, that <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/deaths-from-infections-of-currently-noneradicable-diseases" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">currently still kill hundreds of thousands of people</a> around the world.</p></div><div class="wp-block-column"></div></div></section>
</div><footer class="article-footer"><div class="wp-block-columns"><div class="wp-block-column"><div class="blog-info">Our World in Data presents the empirical evidence on global development in entries dedicated to specific topics.
<p> </p>
<p>This blog post draws on data and research discussed in our entry on the <strong><a href="https://ourworldindata.org/eradication-of-diseases" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Eradication of Diseases</a></strong>.</p>
</div><h3 id="endnotes">Endnotes</h3><ol class="endnotes"><li id="note-1"><p>Rinderpest, which is discussed in <a rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://ourworldindata.org/eradication-of-diseases#rinderpest" target="_blank">our entry</a> on the eradication of diseases, was a disease that only affected animals and is not included in this chart due to lack of data on the number of cases.</p></li></ol><h3 id="licence">Reuse our work freely</h3><p>All visualizations, data, and code produced by Our World in Data are completely open access under the <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Creative Commons BY license</a>. You have the permission to use, distribute, and reproduce these in any medium, provided the source and authors are credited.</p><p>The data produced by third parties and made available by Our World in Data is subject to the license terms from the original third-party authors. We will always indicate the original source of the data in our documentation, so you should always check the license of any such third-party data before use and redistribution.</p><p>All of <a href="/how-to-use-our-world-in-data#how-to-embed-interactive-charts-in-your-article">our charts can be embedded</a> in any site.</p></div><div class="wp-block-column"></div></div></footer></div></div></div></article></main><div id="wpadminbar" style="display:none"><div class="quicklinks" id="wp-toolbar" role="navigation" aria-label="Toolbar"><ul id="wp-admin-bar-root-default" class="ab-top-menu"><li id="wp-admin-bar-site-name" class="menupop"><a class="ab-item" aria-haspopup="true" href="https://owid.cloud/wp/wp-admin">Wordpress</a></li> <li id="wp-admin-bar-edit"><a class="ab-item" href="https://owid.cloud/wp/wp-admin/post.php?post=20524&action=edit">Edit Page</a></li></ul></div></div><section class="donate-footer"><div class="wrapper"><div class="owid-row flex-align-center"><div class="owid-col owid-col--lg-3 owid-padding-bottom--sm-3"><p>Our World in Data is free and accessible for everyone.</p><p>Help us do this work by making a donation.</p></div><div class="owid-col owid-col--lg-1"><a href="/donate" class="owid-button donate-button" data-track-note="donate-footer"><span class="label">Donate now</span><span class="icon"><svg aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" data-prefix="fas" data-icon="angle-right" class="svg-inline--fa fa-angle-right " role="img" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" viewBox="0 0 256 512"><path fill="currentColor" d="M64 448c-8.188 0-16.38-3.125-22.62-9.375c-12.5-12.5-12.5-32.75 0-45.25L178.8 256L41.38 118.6c-12.5-12.5-12.5-32.75 0-45.25s32.75-12.5 45.25 0l160 160c12.5 12.5 12.5 32.75 0 45.25l-160 160C80.38 444.9 72.19 448 64 448z"></path></svg></span></a></div></div></div></section><footer class="site-footer"><div class="wrapper"><div class="owid-row"><div class="owid-col owid-col--lg-1"><ul><li><a href="/about" data-track-note="footer-navigation">About</a></li><li><a href="/about#contact" data-track-note="footer-navigation">Contact</a></li><li><a href="/feedback" data-track-note="footer-navigation">Feedback</a></li><li><a href="/jobs" data-track-note="footer-navigation">Jobs</a></li><li><a href="/funding" data-track-note="footer-navigation">Funding</a></li><li><a href="/about/how-to-use-our-world-in-data" data-track-note="footer-navigation">How to use</a></li><li><a href="/donate" data-track-note="footer-navigation">Donate</a></li><li><a href="/privacy-policy" data-track-note="footer-navigation">Privacy policy</a></li></ul></div><div class="owid-col owid-col--lg-1"><ul><li><a href="/blog" data-track-note="footer-navigation">Latest work</a></li><li><a href="/charts" data-track-note="footer-navigation">All charts</a></li></ul><ul><li><a href="https://twitter.com/OurWorldInData" data-track-note="footer-navigation">Twitter</a></li><li><a href="https://www.facebook.com/OurWorldinData" data-track-note="footer-navigation">Facebook</a></li><li><a href="https://instagram.com/ourworldindata_official" data-track-note="footer-navigation">Instagram</a></li><li><a href="https://github.com/owid" data-track-note="footer-navigation">GitHub</a></li><li><a href="/feed" data-track-note="footer-navigation">RSS Feed</a></li></ul></div><div class="owid-col owid-col--lg-1"><div class="logos"><a href="https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/global-development" class="partner-logo" data-track-note="footer-navigation"><img src="https://ourworldindata.org/oms-logo.svg" alt="Oxford Martin School logo" loading="lazy"/></a><a href="/owid-at-ycombinator" class="partner-logo" data-track-note="footer-navigation"><img src="https://ourworldindata.org/yc-logo.png" alt="Y Combinator logo" loading="lazy"/></a></div></div><div class="owid-col flex-2"><div class="legal"><p>Licenses: All visualizations, data, and articles produced by Our World in Data are open access under the <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Creative Commons BY license</a>. 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