literature.bib

@Article{dietrich_magpie4,
  AUTHOR = {Dietrich, J. P. and Bodirsky, B. L. and Humpen\"oder, F. and Weindl, I. and Stevanovi\'c, M. and Karstens, K. and Kreidenweis, U. and Wang, X. and Mishra, A. and Klein, D. and Ambr\'osio, G. and Araujo, E. and Yalew, A. W. and Baumstark, L. and Wirth, S. and Giannousakis, A. and Beier, F. and Chen, D. M.-C. and Lotze-Campen, H. and Popp, A.},
  TITLE = {MAgPIE 4 -- a~modular open-source framework for modeling global land systems},
  JOURNAL = {Geoscientific Model Development},
  VOLUME = {12},
  YEAR = {2019},
  NUMBER = {4},
  PAGES = {1299--1317},
  URL = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/12/1299/2019/},
  DOI = {10.5194/gmd-12-1299-2019},
}

@article{bodirsky_starved_nodate,
  title = {The ongoing nutrition transition thwarts long-term targets for food security, public health and environmental protection},
  volume = {10},
  copyright = {2020 The Author(s)},
  issn = {2045-2322},
  url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-75213-3},
  doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-75213-3},
  abstract = {The nutrition transition transforms food systems globally and shapes public health and environmental change. Here we provide a global forward-looking assessment of a continued nutrition transition and its interlinked symptoms in respect to food consumption. These symptoms range from underweight and unbalanced diets to obesity, food waste and environmental pressure. We find that by 2050, 45\% (39–52\%) of the world population will be overweight and 16\% (13–20\%) obese, compared to 29\% and 9\% in 2010 respectively. The prevalence of underweight approximately halves but absolute numbers stagnate at 0.4–0.7 billion. Aligned, dietary composition shifts towards animal-source foods and empty calories, while the consumption of vegetables, fruits and nuts increases insufficiently. Population growth, ageing, increasing body mass and more wasteful consumption patterns are jointly pushing global food demand from 30 to 45 (43–47) Exajoules. Our comprehensive open dataset and model provides the interfaces necessary for integrated studies of global health, food systems, and environmental change. Achieving zero hunger, healthy diets, and a food demand compatible with environmental boundaries necessitates a coordinated redirection of the nutrition transition. Reducing household waste, animal-source foods, and overweight could synergistically address multiple symptoms at once, while eliminating underweight would not substantially increase food demand.},
  language = {en},
  number = {1},
  urldate = {2020-11-18},
  journal = {Scientific Reports},
  author = {Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon and Dietrich, Jan Philipp and Martinelli, Eleonora and Stenstad, Antonia and Pradhan, Prajal and Gabrysch, Sabine and Mishra, Abhijeet and Weindl, Isabelle and Le Mouël, Chantal and Rolinski, Susanne and Baumstark, Lavinia and Wang, Xiaoxi and Waid, Jillian L. and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Popp, Alexander},
  month = nov,
  year = {2020},
  note = {Number: 1; Publisher: Nature Publishing Group},
  pages = {19778},
}

@article{willett_food_2019,
  title = {Food in the {Anthropocene}: the {EAT}-{Lancet} {Commission} on healthy diets from sustainable food systems},
  issn = {01406736},
  shorttitle = {Food in the {Anthropocene}},
  url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0140673618317884},
  doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31788-4},
  language = {en},
  urldate = {2019-01-18},
  journal = {The Lancet},
  author = {Willett, Walter and Rockström, Johan and Loken, Brent and Springmann, Marco and Lang, Tim and Vermeulen, Sonja and Garnett, Tara and Tilman, David and DeClerck, Fabrice and Wood, Amanda and Jonell, Malin and Clark, Michael and Gordon, Line J and Fanzo, Jessica and Hawkes, Corinna and Zurayk, Rami and Rivera, Juan A and De Vries, Wim and Majele Sibanda, Lindiwe and Afshin, Ashkan and Chaudhary, Abhishek and Herrero, Mario and Agustina, Rina and Branca, Francesco and Lartey, Anna and Fan, Shenggen and Crona, Beatrice and Fox, Elizabeth and Bignet, Victoria and Troell, Max and Lindahl, Therese and Singh, Sudhvir and Cornell, Sarah E and Srinath Reddy, K and Narain, Sunita and Nishtar, Sania and Murray, Christopher J L},
  month = jan,
  year = {2019},
}

@article{springmann_options_2018,
  title = {Options for Keeping the Food System within Environmental Limits},
  doi = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0594-0},
  language = {en},
  journal = {Nature},
  volume = "562",
  number = "7728",
  pages = "519 - 525",
  author = {Springmann, Marco, Michael Clark, Daniel Mason-D'Croz, Keith Wiebe, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Luis Lassaletta, Wim de Vries, Sonja J. Vermeulen, Mario Herrero, Kimberly M. Carlson, Malin Jonell, Max Troell, Fabrice DeClerck, Line J. Gordon, Rami Zurayk, Peter Scarborough, Mike Rayner, Brent Loken, Jess Franzo, H. Charles J. Godfray, David Tilman, Johan Rockström, Walter Willett},
  month = oct,
  year = {2018},
}

@misc{FAOSTAT,
  author = {FAOSTAT},
  title = {{FAOSTAT Database}},
  publisher = {The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)},
  year = {2016},
  address = {Rome},
  url = {http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/},
}

@techreport{Calzadilla2011GTAP,
  author = {Alvaro Calzadilla and Katrin Rehdanz and Richard S.J. Tol},
  title = {The GTAP-W model: Accounting for water use in agriculture},
  number = {1745},
  publisher = {Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)},
  type = {Kiel Working Paper},
  address = {Kiel},
  url = {http://hdl.handle.net/10419/54939},
  year = {2011}
}

@article{LUCAS200785,
  title = "Long-term reduction potential of non-CO2 greenhouse gases",
  journal = "Environmental Science & Policy",
  volume = "10",
  number = "2",
  pages = "85 - 103",
  year = "2007",
  issn = "1462-9011",
  doi = "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2006.10.007",
  url = "http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901106001316",
  author = "Paul L. Lucas and Detlef P. van Vuuren and Jos G.J. Olivier and Michel G.J. den Elzen",
  keywords = "Non-CO, Abatement potential, Technology development, Mitigation scenarios"
}

@techreport{ipcc_2006_2006,
  title = {2006 {IPCC} {Guidelines} for {National} {Greenhouse} {Gas} {Inventories}, {Prepared} by the {National} {Greenhouse} {Gas} {Inventories} {Programme}},
  author = {{IPCC}},
  collaborator = {Eggleston, H. S. and Buendia, L. and Miwa, K. and Ngara, T. and Tanabe, K. and Hayama, K.},
  year = {2006},
}

@article{kreidenweis_pasture_2018,
  title = {Pasture intensification is insufficient to relieve pressure on conservation priority areas in open agricultural markets},
  volume = {0},
  copyright = {© 2018 John Wiley \& Sons Ltd},
  issn = {1365-2486},
  url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.14272},
  doi = {10.1111/gcb.14272},
  abstract = {Agricultural expansion is a leading driver of biodiversity loss across the world, but little is known on how future land-use change may encroach on remaining natural vegetation. This uncertainty is, in part, due to unknown levels of future agricultural intensification and international trade. Using an economic land-use model, we assessed potential future losses of natural vegetation with a focus on how these may threaten biodiversity hotspots and intact forest landscapes. We analysed agricultural expansion under proactive and reactive biodiversity protection scenarios, and for different rates of pasture intensification. We found growing food demand to lead to a significant expansion of cropland at the expense of pastures and natural vegetation. In our reference scenario, global cropland area increased by more than 400 Mha between 2015 and 2050, mostly in Africa and Latin America. Grazing intensification was a main determinant of future land-use change. In Africa, higher rates of pasture intensification resulted in smaller losses of natural vegetation, and reduced pressure on biodiversity hotspots and intact forest landscapes. Investments into raising pasture productivity in conjunction with proactive land-use planning appear essential in Africa to reduce further losses of areas with high conservation value. In Latin America, in contrast, higher pasture productivity resulted in increased livestock exports, highlighting that unchecked trade can reduce the land savings of pasture intensification. Reactive protection of sensitive areas significantly reduced the conversion of natural ecosystems in Latin America. We conclude that protection strategies need to adapt to region-specific trade positions. In regions with a high involvement in international trade, area-based conservation measures should be preferred over strategies aimed at increasing pasture productivity, which by themselves might not be sufficient to protect biodiversity effectively.},
  language = {en},
  number = {0},
  urldate = {2018-05-28},
  journal = {Global Change Biology},
  author = {Kreidenweis, Ulrich and Humpenöder, Florian and Kehoe, Laura and Kuemmerle, Tobias and Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Popp, Alexander},
  year = {2018},
  keywords = {biodiversity hotspots, grazing intensification, intact forest landscapes, land sparing, land-use modelling, protected areas},
}

@article{ramankutty_suitability_2002,
  title = {The global distribution of cultivable lands: current patterns and sensitivity to possible climate change},
  volume = {11},
  shorttitle = {The global distribution of cultivable lands},
  url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1046/j.1466-822x.2002.00294.x/full},
  number = {5},
  urldate = {2014-09-04},
  journal = {Global Ecology and Biogeography},
  author = {Ramankutty, Navin and Foley, Jonathan A. and Norman, John and McSweeney, Kevin},
  year = {2002},
  pages = {377--392},
}

@book{lotze-campen_trade-offs_2009,
  title = {The trade-offs between agricultural expansion, intensification and trade: a global bio-economic modelling approach},
  publisher = {FORESIGHT Expert Workshop on Global Food Modelling},
  author = {Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Popp, Alexander and Beringer, T. and M\"uller, Christoph and Bondeau, A. and Rost, S. and Lucht, W.},
  year = {2009}
}

@article{lotze-campen_global_2008,
  title = {Global food demand, productivity growth, and the scarcity of land and water resources: a spatially explicit mathematical programming approach},
  volume = {39},
  shorttitle = {Global food demand, productivity growth, and the scarcity of land and water resources},
  number = {3},
  journal = {Agricultural Economics},
  author = {Lotze-Campen, Hermann and M\"uller, Christoph and Bondeau, A. and Rost, S. and Popp, Alexander and Lucht, W.},
  year = {2008},
  pages = {325--338},
}

@inproceedings{krause_spatially-explicit_2009,
  address = {Beijing, China},
  title = {Spatially-explicit scenarios on global cropland expansion and available forest land in an integrated modelling framework.},
  booktitle = {27th {International} {Association} of {Agricultural} {Economists} {Conference}},
  author = {Krause, Michael and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Popp, Alexander},
  year = {2009}
}

@article{krause_implicit_nodate,
  title = {The implicit value of foregone global cropland expansion – {What} is the impact of forest conservation?},
  author = {Krause, Michael and Lotze-Campen, H. and Popp, Alexander}
}

@article{lotze-campen_scenarios_2009,
  title = {Scenarios of global bioenergy production: {The} trade-offs between agricultural expansion, intensification and trade},
  shorttitle = {Scenarios of global bioenergy production},
  number = {221},
  journal = {Ecological Modelling},
  author = {Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Popp, Alexander and Beringer, Tim and M\"uller, Christoph and Bondeau, A. and Rost, S. and Lucht, W.},
  year = {2009},
  pages = {2188 -- 2196},
}

@article{schmitz_trading_2012,
  title = {Trading more food: {Implications} for land use, greenhouse gas emissions, and the food system},
  volume = {22},
  issn = {09593780},
  shorttitle = {Trading more food},
  url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0959378011001488},
  doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.09.013},
  number = {1},
  urldate = {2011-10-20},
  journal = {Global Environmental Change},
  author = {Schmitz, Christoph and Biewald, Anne and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Popp, Alexander and Dietrich, Jan Philipp and Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon and Krause, Michael and Weindl, Isabelle},
  year = {2012},
  pages = {189--209},
}

@inproceedings{weindl_impact_2010,
  address = {Stuttgart, Germany},
  title = {Impact of livestock feeding technologies on global greenhouse gas emissions},
  volume = {91277},
  booktitle = {Climate {Change} in {World} {Agriculture}: {Mitigation}, {Adaptation}, {Trade} and {Food} {Security}},
  publisher = {International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium},
  author = {Weindl, Isabelle and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Popp, Alexander and Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon and Rolinski, Susanne},
  month = jun,
  year = {2010},
  pages = {1--21},
}

@misc{schmitz_implementing_2010,
  address = {Penang (Malaysia)},
  title = {Implementing endogenous technological change in a global land-use model.},
  url = {www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/download/5584.pdf},
  author = {Schmitz, Christoph and Dietrich, Jan Philipp and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and M\"uller, Christoph and Popp, Alexander},
  month = jun,
  year = {2010}
}

@article{popp_additional_2012,
  title = {Additional {CO}2 emissions from land use change -- forest conservation as a precondition for sustainable production of second generation bioenergy.},
  volume = {74},
  journal = {Ecological Economics},
  author = {Popp, Alexander and Krause, Michael and Dietrich, Jan Philipp and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Leimbach, Marian and Beringer, Tim and Bauer, Nico},
  year = {2012},
  pages = {64--70},
}

@article{popp_economic_2011,
  title = {The economic potential of bioenergy for climate change mitigation with special attention given to implications for the land system},
  volume = {6},
  number = {034017},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  author = {Popp, Alexander and Dietrich, Jan Philipp and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Klein, David and Bauer, N. and Krause, Michael and Beringer, T. and Gerten, D. and Edenhofer, O.},
  year = {2011},
  pages = {1--9},
}

@article{bodirsky_current_2012,
  title = {Current state and future scenarios of the global agricultural nitrogen cycle},
  volume = {9},
  issn = {1810-6285},
  url = {http://www.biogeosciences-discuss.net/9/2755/2012/},
  doi = {10.5194/bgd-9-2755-2012},
  number = {3},
  urldate = {2012-03-13},
  journal = {Biogeosciences Discuss.},
  author = {Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon and Popp, Alexander and Weindl, Isabelle and Dietrich, Jan Philipp and Rolinski, Susanne and Scheiffele, Lena and Schmitz, Christoph and Lotze-Campen, Hermann},
  month = mar,
  year = {2012},
  pages = {2755--2821},
}

@article{bodirsky_n2o_2012,
  title = {N2O emissions from the global agricultural nitrogen cycle – current state and future scenarios},
  volume = {9},
  issn = {1726-4189},
  url = {http://www.biogeosciences.net/9/4169/2012/},
  doi = {10.5194/bg-9-4169-2012},
  number = {10},
  urldate = {2012-10-31},
  journal = {Biogeosciences},
  author = {Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon and Popp, Alexander and Weindl, Isabelle and Dietrich, Jan Philipp and Rolinski, Susanne and Scheiffele, Lena and Schmitz, Christoph and Lotze-Campen, Hermann},
  month = oct,
  year = {2012},
  pages = {4169--4197},
}

@article{popp_food_2010,
  title = {Food consumption, diet shifts and associated non-{CO}2 greenhouse gases from agricultural production},
  volume = {20},
  issn = {09593780},
  url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0959378010000075},
  doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.02.001},
  number = {3},
  urldate = {2012-10-31},
  journal = {Global Environmental Change},
  author = {Popp, Alexander and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Bodirsky, Benjamin},
  month = aug,
  year = {2010},
  pages = {451--462},
}

@article{popp_sustainability_2011,
  title = {On sustainability of bioenergy production: {Integrating} co-emissions from agricultural intensification},
  volume = {35},
  issn = {09619534},
  shorttitle = {On sustainability of bioenergy production},
  url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0961953410002230},
  doi = {10.1016/j.biombioe.2010.06.014},
  number = {12},
  urldate = {2012-10-31},
  journal = {Biomass and Bioenergy},
  author = {Popp, Alexander and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Leimbach, Marian and Knopf, Brigitte and Beringer, Tim and Bauer, Nico and Bodirsky, Benjamin},
  month = dec,
  year = {2011},
  pages = {4770--4780},
}

@article{bodirsky_global_2015,
  title = {Global food demand scenarios for the 21st century},
  doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0139201},
  journal = {PLoS ONE},
  author = {Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon and Rolinski, Susanne and Biewald, Anne and Weindl, Isabelle and Popp, Alexander and Lotze-Campen, H.},
  year = {2015},
}

@article{krause_conservation_2013,
  title = {Conservation of undisturbed natural forests and economic impacts on agriculture},
  volume = {30},
  issn = {02648377},
  url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0264837712000543},
  doi = {10.1016/j.landusepol.2012.03.020},
  number = {1},
  urldate = {2013-02-12},
  journal = {Land Use Policy},
  author = {Krause, Michael and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Popp, Alexander and Dietrich, Jan Philipp and Bonsch, Markus},
  month = jan,
  year = {2013},
  pages = {344--354},
}

@techreport{bodirsky_how_2009,
  title = {How can each sector contribute to 2C?},
  url = {http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.177.8150&rep=rep1&type=pdf},
  urldate = {2013-06-11},
  institution = {PIK Potsdam},
  author = {Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon and Kampman, B. and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Markowska, A. and Monjon, S. and Neuhoff, K. and Noleppa, S. and Popp, Alexander and del Río González, P. and Spielmans, S. and Strohschein, J.},
  year = {2009},
}

@article{schmitz_blue_2013,
  title = {Blue water scarcity and the economic impacts of future agricultural trade and demand},
  volume = {49},
  copyright = {©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.},
  issn = {1944-7973},
  url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wrcr.20188/abstract},
  doi = {10.1002/wrcr.20188},
  abstract = {An increasing demand for agricultural goods affects the pressure on global water resources over the coming decades. In order to quantify these effects, we have developed a new agroeconomic water scarcity indicator, considering explicitly economic processes in the agricultural system. The indicator is based on the water shadow price generated by an economic land use model linked to a global vegetation-hydrology model. Irrigation efficiency is implemented as a dynamic input depending on the level of economic development. We are able to simulate the heterogeneous distribution of water supply and agricultural water demand for irrigation through the spatially explicit representation of agricultural production. This allows in identifying regional hot spots of blue water scarcity and explicit shadow prices for water. We generate scenarios based on moderate policies regarding future trade liberalization and the control of livestock-based consumption, dependent on different population and gross domestic product (GDP) projections. Results indicate increased water scarcity in the future, especially in South Asia, the Middle East, and north Africa. In general, water shadow prices decrease with increasing liberalization, foremost in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. Policies to reduce livestock consumption in developed countries not only lower the domestic pressure on water but also alleviate water scarcity to a large extent in developing countries. It is shown that one of the two policy options would be insufficient for most regions to retain water scarcity in 2045 on levels comparable to 2005.},
  language = {en},
  number = {6},
  urldate = {2013-08-16},
  journal = {Water Resources Research},
  author = {Schmitz, Christoph and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Gerten, Dieter and Dietrich, Jan Philipp and Bodirsky, Benjamin and Biewald, Anne and Popp, Alexander},
  year = {2013},
  keywords = {water scarcity, land use model, irrigation efficiency, trade liberalization, livestock consumption},
  pages = {3601--3617},
}

@article{bodirsky_stuck_nodate,
  title = {Stuck in the {Anthropocene}. {The} case of reactive {Nitrogen}.},
  journal = {Nature Communications},
  author = {Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon and Popp, Alexander and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Dietrich, Jan Philipp and Rolinski, Susanne and Weindl, Isabelle and Schmitz, Christoph and M\"uller, Christoph and Bonsch, Markus and Humpenöder, Florian and Biewald, Anne and Stevanovic, Miodrag},
}

@article{dietrich_measuring_2012,
  title = {Measuring agricultural land-use intensity – {A} global analysis using a model-assisted approach},
  volume = {232},
  issn = {03043800},
  url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0304380012001093},
  doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.03.002},
  urldate = {2013-10-17},
  journal = {Ecological Modelling},
  author = {Dietrich, Jan Philipp and Schmitz, Christoph and M\"uller, Christoph and Fader, Marianela and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Popp, Alexander},
  month = may,
  year = {2012},
  pages = {109--118},
}

@article{klein_value_2013,
  title = {The value of bioenergy in low stabilization scenarios: an assessment using {REMIND}-{MAgPIE}},
  issn = {0165-0009, 1573-1480},
  shorttitle = {The value of bioenergy in low stabilization scenarios},
  url = {http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-013-0940-z},
  doi = {10.1007/s10584-013-0940-z},
  abstract = {This study investigates the use of bioenergy for achieving stringent climate stabilization targets and it analyzes the economic drivers behind the choice of bioenergy technologies. We apply the integrated assessment framework REMIND-MAgPIE to show that bioenergy, particularly if combined with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a crucial mitigation option with high deployment levels and high technology value. If CCS is available, bioenergy is exclusively used with CCS. We find that the ability of bioenergy to provide negative emissions gives rise to a strong nexus between biomass prices and carbon prices. Ambitious climate policy could result in bioenergy prices of 70 /GJ(oreven430/GJ (or even 430 /GJ if bioenergy potential is limited to 100 EJ/year), which indicates a strong demand for bioenergy. For low stabilization scenarios with BECCS availability, we find that the carbon value of biomass tends to exceed its pure energy value. Therefore, the driving factor behind investments into bioenergy conversion capacities for electricity and hydrogen production are the revenues generated from negative emissions, rather than from energy production. However, in REMIND modern bioenergy is predominantly used to produce low-carbon fuels, since the transport sector has significantly fewer low-carbon alternatives to biofuels than the power sector. Since negative emissions increase the amount of permissible emissions from fossil fuels, given a climate target, bioenergy acts as a complement to fossils rather than a substitute. This makes the short-term and long-term deployment of fossil fuels dependent on the long-term availability of BECCS.},
  language = {en},
  urldate = {2013-10-09},
  journal = {Climatic Change},
  author = {Klein, David and Luderer, Gunnar and Kriegler, Elmar and Strefler, Jessica and Bauer, Nico and Leimbach, Marian and Popp, Alexander and Dietrich, Jan Philipp and Humpenöder, Florian and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Edenhofer, Ottmar},
  year = {2013},
  keywords = {Atmospheric Sciences, Climate Change Impacts},
  pages = {1--14},
}

@article{dietrich_forecasting_2014,
  title = {Forecasting technological change in agriculture—{An} endogenous implementation in a global land use model},
  volume = {81},
  issn = {00401625},
  url = {http://edoc.gfz-potsdam.de/pik/display.epl?mode=doc&id=5818},
  doi = {10.1016/j.techfore.2013.02.003},
  urldate = {2013-10-17},
  journal = {Technological Forecasting and Social Change},
  author = {Dietrich, Jan Philipp and Schmitz, Christoph and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Popp, Alexander and M\"uller, Christoph},
  year = {2014},
  pages = {236--249},
}

@article{dietrich_reducing_2013,
  title = {Reducing the loss of information and gaining accuracy with clustering methods in a global land-use model},
  volume = {263},
  issn = {0304-3800},
  url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380013002603},
  doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.05.009},
  abstract = {Abstract
Global land-use models have to deal with processes on several spatial scales, ranging from the global scale down to the farm level. The increasing complexity of modern land-use models combined with the problem of limited computational resources represents a challenge to modelers. One solution of this problem is to perform spatial aggregation based on a regular grid or administrative units such as countries. Unfortunately this type of aggregation flattens many regional differences and produces a homogenized map of the world. In this paper we present an alternative aggregation approach using clustering methods. Clustering reduces the loss of information due to aggregation by choosing an appropriate aggregation pattern.

We investigate different clustering methods, examining their quality in terms of information conservation. Our results indicate that clustering is always a good choice and preferable compared to grid-based aggregation. Although all the clustering methods we tested delivered a higher degree of information conservation than grid-based aggregation, the choice of clustering method is not arbitrary. Comparing outputs of a model fed with original data and a model fed with aggregated data, bottom-up clustering delivered the best results for the whole range of numbers of clusters tested.},
  urldate = {2013-11-15},
  journal = {Ecological Modelling},
  author = {Dietrich, Jan Philipp and Popp, Alexander and Lotze-Campen, Hermann},
  month = aug,
  year = {2013},
  keywords = {land use model, Aggregation, Downscaling, Clustering, Information conservation, Scale},
  pages = {233--243},
}

@article{bodirsky_reactive_2014,
  title = {Reactive nitrogen requirements to feed the world in 2050 and potential to mitigate nitrogen pollution},
  volume = {5},
  issn = {2041-1723},
  url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/ncomms4858},
  doi = {10.1038/ncomms4858},
  urldate = {2014-05-13},
  journal = {Nature Communications},
  author = {Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon and Popp, Alexander and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Dietrich, Jan Philipp and Rolinski, Susanne and Weindl, Isabelle and Schmitz, Christoph and M\"uller, Christoph and Bonsch, Markus and Humpenöder, Florian and Biewald, Anne and Stevanovic, Miodrag},
  month = may,
  year = {2014},
}

@article{humpenoder_investigating_2014,
  title = {Investigating afforestation and bioenergy {CCS} as climate change mitigation strategies},
  volume = {9},
  issn = {1748-9326},
  url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/9/i=6/a=064029?key=crossref.5fa44a1462d2acebebaa002315d8e4a6},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/9/6/064029},
  number = {6},
  urldate = {2014-06-24},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  author = {Humpenöder, Florian and Popp, Alexander and Dietrich, Jan Philip and Klein, David and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Bonsch, Markus and Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon and Weindl, Isabelle and Stevanovic, Miodrag and M\"uller, Christoph},
  month = may,
  year = {2014},
  pages = {064029},
}

@article{klein_global_2014,
  title = {The global economic long-term potential of modern biomass in a climate-constrained world},
  volume = {9},
  issn = {1748-9326},
  url = {http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/9/7/074017},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/9/7/074017},
  abstract = {Low-stabilization scenarios consistent with the 2 °C target project large-scale deployment of purpose-grown lignocellulosic biomass. In case a GHG price regime integrates emissions from energy conversion and from land-use/land-use change, the strong demand for bioenergy and the pricing of terrestrial emissions are likely to coincide. We explore the global potential of purpose-grown lignocellulosic biomass and ask the question how the supply prices of biomass depend on prices for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the land-use sector. Using the spatially explicit global land-use optimization model MAgPIE, we construct bioenergy supply curves for ten world regions and a global aggregate in two scenarios, with and without a GHG tax. We find that the implementation of GHG taxes is crucial for the slope of the supply function and the GHG emissions from the land-use sector. Global supply prices start at \$5 GJ−1 and increase almost linearly, doubling at 150 EJ (in 2055 and 2095). The GHG tax increases bioenergy prices by \$5 GJ−1 in 2055 and by \$10 GJ−1 in 2095, since it effectively stops deforestation and thus excludes large amounts of high-productivity land. Prices additionally increase due to costs for N2O emissions from fertilizer use. The GHG tax decreases global land-use change emissions by one-third. However, the carbon emissions due to bioenergy production increase by more than 50\% from conversion of land that is not under emission control. Average yields required to produce 240 EJ in 2095 are roughly 600 GJ ha−1 yr−1 with and without tax.},
  language = {en},
  number = {7},
  urldate = {2014-08-06},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  author = {Klein, David and Humpenöder, Florian and Bauer, Nico and Dietrich, Jan Philipp and Popp, Alexander and Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon and Bonsch, Markus and Lotze-Campen, Hermann},
  year = {2014},
  pages = {074017},
}

@article{lotze-campen_impacts_2014,
  title = {Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an {AgMIP} economic model intercomparison},
  volume = {45},
  issn = {01695150},
  shorttitle = {Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets},
  url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/agec.12092},
  doi = {10.1111/agec.12092},
  language = {en},
  number = {1},
  urldate = {2014-10-14},
  journal = {Agricultural Economics},
  author = {Lotze-Campen, Hermann and von Lampe, Martin and Kyle, Page and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Havlik, Petr and van Meijl, Hans and Hasegawa, Tomoko and Popp, Alexander and Schmitz, Christoph and Tabeau, Andrzej and Valin, Hugo and Willenbockel, Dirk and Wise, Marshall},
  month = jan,
  year = {2014},
  pages = {103--116},
}

@article{bonsch_trade-offs_2014,
  title = {Trade-offs between land and water requirements for large-scale bioenergy production},
  copyright = {© 2014 John Wiley \& Sons Ltd},
  issn = {1757-1707},
  url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcbb.12226/abstract},
  doi = {10.1111/gcbb.12226},
  abstract = {Bioenergy is expected to play an important role in the future energy mix as it can substitute fossil fuels and contribute to climate change mitigation. However, large-scale bioenergy cultivation may put substantial pressure on land and water resources. While irrigated bioenergy production can reduce the pressure on land due to higher yields, associated irrigation water requirements may lead to degradation of freshwater ecosystems and to conflicts with other potential users. In this article, we investigate the trade-offs between land and water requirements of large-scale bioenergy production. To this end, we adopt an exogenous demand trajectory for bioenergy from dedicated energy crops, targeted at limiting greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector to 1100 Gt carbon dioxide equivalent until 2095. We then use the spatially explicit global land- and water-use allocation model MAgPIE to project the implications of this bioenergy target for global land and water resources. We find that producing 300 EJ yr−1 of bioenergy in 2095 from dedicated bioenergy crops is likely to double agricultural water withdrawals if no explicit water protection policies are implemented. Since current human water withdrawals are dominated by agriculture and already lead to ecosystem degradation and biodiversity loss, such a doubling will pose a severe threat to freshwater ecosystems. If irrigated bioenergy production is prohibited to prevent negative impacts of bioenergy cultivation on water resources, bioenergy land requirements for meeting a 300 EJ yr−1 bioenergy target increase substantially (+ 41\%) – mainly at the expense of pasture areas and tropical forests. Thus, avoiding negative environmental impacts of large-scale bioenergy production will require policies that balance associated water and land requirements.},
  language = {en},
  urldate = {2014-11-07},
  journal = {GCB Bioenergy},
  author = {Bonsch, Markus and Humpenöder, Florian and Popp, Alexander and Bodirsky, Benjamin and Dietrich, Jan Philipp and Rolinski, Susanne and Biewald, Anne and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Weindl, Isabelle and Gerten, Dieter and Stevanovic, Miodrag},
  month = nov,
  year = {2014},
  keywords = {sustainability, Bioenergy, land, land-use model, projection, water, water-land nexus},
  pages = {n/a--n/a},
}

@article{popp_land-use_2014,
  title = {Land-use protection for climate change mitigation},
  volume = {4},
  copyright = {© 2014 Nature Publishing Group},
  issn = {1758-678X},
  url = {http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2444.html},
  doi = {10.1038/nclimate2444},
  abstract = {Land-use change, mainly the conversion of tropical forests to agricultural land, is a massive source of carbon emissions and contributes substantially to global warming. Therefore, mechanisms that aim to reduce carbon emissions from deforestation are widely discussed. A central challenge is the avoidance of international carbon leakage if forest conservation is not implemented globally. Here, we show that forest conservation schemes, even if implemented globally, could lead to another type of carbon leakage by driving cropland expansion in non-forested areas that are not subject to forest conservation schemes (non-forest leakage). These areas have a smaller, but still considerable potential to store carbon. We show that a global forest policy could reduce carbon emissions by 77 Gt CO2, but would still allow for decreases in carbon stocks of non-forest land by 96 Gt CO2 until 2100 due to non-forest leakage effects. Furthermore, abandonment of agricultural land and associated carbon uptake through vegetation regrowth is hampered. Effective mitigation measures thus require financing structures and conservation investments that cover the full range of carbon-rich ecosystems. However, our analysis indicates that greater agricultural productivity increases would be needed to compensate for such restrictions on agricultural expansion.},
  language = {en},
  urldate = {2014-11-17},
  journal = {Nature Climate Change},
  author = {Popp, Alexander and Humpenöder, Florian and Weindl, Isabelle and Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon and Bonsch, Markus and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and M\"uller, Christoph and Biewald, Anne and Rolinski, Susanne and Stevanovic, Miodrag and Dietrich, Jan Philipp},
  month = nov,
  year = {2014},
  pages = {1095--1098},
}

@misc{bodirsky_scenarios_2015,
  address = {Berlin},
  title = {Scenarios of future agricultural  phosphorus stocks and flows},
  author = {Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon},
  collaborator = {Heintz, Veikko and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Popp, Alexander and Rolinski, Susanne and Lutz, Femke and Stevanovic, Miodrag and M\"uller, Christoph and Dietrich, Jan Philipp and Weindl, Isabelle and Bonsch, Markus and Humpenöder, Florian},
  year = {2015},
}

@article{klein_bio-igcc_2011,
  series = {10th {International} {Conference} on {Greenhouse} {Gas} {Control} {Technologies}},
  title = {Bio-{IGCC} with {CCS} as a long-term mitigation option in a coupled energy-system and land-use model},
  volume = {4},
  issn = {1876-6102},
  url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1876610211003985},
  doi = {10.1016/j.egypro.2011.02.201},
  abstract = {This study analyses the impact of techno-economic performance of the BIGCC process and the effect of different biomass feedstocks on the technology’s long term deployment in climate change mitigation scenarios. As the BIGCC technology demands high amounts of biomass raw material it also affects the land-use sector and is dependent on conditions and constraints on the land-use side. To represent the interaction of biomass demand and supply side the global energy-economy-climate model ReMIND is linked to the global land-use model MAgPIE. The link integrates biomass demand and price as well as emission prices and land-use emissions. Results indicate that BIGCC with CCS could serve as an important mitigation option and that it could even be the main bioenergy conversion technology sharing 33\% of overall mitigation in 2100. The contribution of BIGCC technology to long-term climate change mitigation is much higher if grass is used as fuel instead of wood, provided that the grass-based process is highly efficient. The capture rate has to significantly exceed 60\% otherwise the technology is not applied. The overall primary energy consumption of biomass reacts much more sensitive to price changes of the biomass than to techno-economic performance of the BIGCC process. As biomass is mainly used with CCS technologies high amounts of carbon are captured ranging from 130 GtC to 240 GtC (cumulated from 2005–2100) in different scenarios.},
  urldate = {2015-06-10},
  journal = {Energy Procedia},
  author = {Klein, David and Bauer, Nico and Bodirsky, Benjamin and Dietrich, Jan Philipp and Popp, Alexander},
  year = {2011},
  keywords = {land use, Biomass, IGCC, Carbon capture and sequestration, Soft link},
  pages = {2933--2940},
}

@article{nelson_climate_2014,
  title = {Climate change effects on agriculture: {Economic} responses to biophysical shocks},
  volume = {111},
  issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
  shorttitle = {Climate change effects on agriculture},
  url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/111/9/3274},
  doi = {10.1073/pnas.1222465110},
  abstract = {Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2. The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17\% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11\%, increase area of major crops by 11\%, and reduce consumption by 3\%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.},
  language = {en},
  number = {9},
  urldate = {2015-07-03},
  journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  author = {Nelson, Gerald C. and Valin, Hugo and Sands, Ronald D. and Havlík, Petr and Ahammad, Helal and Deryng, Delphine and Elliott, Joshua and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Hasegawa, Tomoko and Heyhoe, Edwina and Kyle, Page and Lampe, Martin Von and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and d’Croz, Daniel Mason and Meijl, Hans van and Mensbrugghe, Dominique van der and M\"uller, Christoph and Popp, Alexander and Robertson, Richard and Robinson, Sherman and Schmid, Erwin and Schmitz, Christoph and Tabeau, Andrzej and Willenbockel, Dirk},
  month = apr,
  year = {2014},
  pmid = {24344285},
  keywords = {Integrated assessment, Agricultural productivity, climate change adaptation, model intercomparison},
  pages = {3274--3279},
}

@article{bonsch_environmental_2015,
  title = {Environmental flow provision: {Implications} for agricultural water and land-use at the global scale},
  volume = {30},
  issn = {0959-3780},
  shorttitle = {Environmental flow provision},
  url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378014001964},
  doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.10.015},
  abstract = {Human activity has led to freshwater ecosystem degradation in the past and is likely to continue doing so if no appropriate protection mechanisms are implemented. One potential protection measure is the reallocation of water from human use to environmental purposes – also called environmental flows. Such reallocation may decrease the availability of irrigation water with possible adverse effects on agricultural production. In this analysis, we provide an initial quantitative estimate of how the allocation of annual volumes of water for environmental flow protection (EFP) might influence the food production system on a global scale. The application of a spatially explicit global land and water-use allocation model (MAgPIE) allows us to explore the effect of EFP on agricultural water withdrawals. We will also examine associated reactions in terms of land-use changes and agricultural intensification. Our results suggest that the implications of conserving annual volumes of water for EFP on the land-use system are moderate on an aggregate global level. Cropland expansion into unmanaged land arising from increased food demand up to 2045 is higher by a factor 5–9 than cropland expansion induced by EFP. Global forest losses associated with EFP remain below 1\% of current forest area. Production reallocation and associated land-use change hotspots suggest that local effects are of more concern than aggregate cropland expansion and deforestation.},
  urldate = {2015-08-13},
  journal = {Global Environmental Change},
  author = {Bonsch, Markus and Popp, Alexander and Biewald, Anne and Rolinski, Susanne and Schmitz, Christoph and Weindl, Isabelle and Stevanovic, Miodrag and Högner, Kathrin and Heinke, Jens and Ostberg, Sebastian and Dietrich, Jan Philipp and Bodirsky, Benjamin and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Humpenöder, Florian},
  month = jan,
  year = {2015},
  keywords = {Global, Environmental flows, Water-use, Land-use, Land–water-nexus, Model},
  pages = {113--132},
}

@article{wang_taking_2016,
  title = {Taking account of governance: {Implications} for land-use dynamics, food prices, and trade patterns},
  volume = {122},
  issn = {0921-8009},
  shorttitle = {Taking account of governance},
  url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800915004619},
  doi = {10.1016/j.ecolecon.2015.11.018},
  abstract = {Deforestation, mainly caused by unsustainable agricultural expansion, results in a loss of biodiversity and an increase in greenhouse gas emissions, as well as impinges on local livelihoods. Countries' governance performance, particularly with respect to property rights security, exerts significant impacts on land-use patterns by affecting agricultural yield-related technological investment and cropland expansion. This study aims to incorporate governance factors into a recursive agro-economic dynamic model to simulate governance impacts on land-use patterns at the global scale. Due to the difficulties of including governance indicators directly into numerical models, we use lending interest rates as discount rates to reflect risk-accounting factors associated with different governance scenarios. In addition to a reference scenario, three scenarios with high, low and mixed divergent discount rates are formed to represent weak, strong and fragmented governance. We find that weak governance leads to slower yield growth, increased cropland expansion and associated deforestation, mainly in Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Southeast Asia. This is associated with increasing food prices, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. By contrast, strong governance performance provides a stable political and economic situation which may bring down deforestation rates, stimulate investment in agricultural technologies, and induce fairly strong decreases in food prices.},
  urldate = {2016-02-19},
  journal = {Ecological Economics},
  author = {Wang, Xiaoxi and Biewald, Anne and Dietrich, Jan Philipp and Schmitz, Christoph and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Humpenöder, Florian and Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon and Popp, Alexander},
  month = feb,
  year = {2016},
  keywords = {Deforestation, Governance, Cropland expansion, Food prices, Land-use intensity},
  pages = {12--24}
}

@article{bodirsky_global_2015-1,
  title = {Global {Food} {Demand} {Scenarios} for the 21st {Century}},
  volume = {10},
  url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0139201},
  doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0139201},
  abstract = {Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries.},
  number = {11},
  urldate = {2015-11-05},
  journal = {PLoS ONE},
  author = {Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon and Rolinski, Susanne and Biewald, Anne and Weindl, Isabelle and Popp, Alexander and Lotze-Campen, Hermann},
  month = nov,
  year = {2015},
  pages = {e0139201},
}

@article{wiebe_climate_2015,
  title = {Climate change impacts on agriculture in 2050 under a range of plausible socioeconomic and emissions scenarios},
  volume = {10},
  issn = {1748-9326},
  url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/10/i=8/a=085010},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/085010},
  abstract = {Previous studies have combined climate, crop and economic models to examine the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security, but results have varied widely due to differences in models, scenarios and input data. Recent work has examined (and narrowed) these differences through systematic model intercomparison using a high-emissions pathway to highlight the differences. This paper extends that analysis to explore a range of plausible socioeconomic scenarios and emission pathways. Results from multiple climate and economic models are combined to examine the global and regional impacts of climate change on agricultural yields, area, production, consumption, prices and trade for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar crops to 2050. We find that climate impacts on global average yields, area, production and consumption are similar across shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP 1, 2 and 3, as we implement them based on population, income and productivity drivers), except when changes in trade policies are included. Impacts on trade and prices are higher for SSP 3 than SSP 2, and higher for SSP 2 than for SSP 1. Climate impacts for all variables are similar across low to moderate emissions pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0), but increase for a higher emissions pathway (RCP 8.5). It is important to note that these global averages may hide regional variations. Projected reductions in agricultural yields due to climate change by 2050 are larger for some crops than those estimated for the past half century, but smaller than projected increases to 2050 due to rising demand and intrinsic productivity growth. Results illustrate the sensitivity of climate change impacts to differences in socioeconomic and emissions pathways. Yield impacts increase at high emissions levels and vary with changes in population, income and technology, but are reduced in all cases by endogenous changes in prices and other variables.},
  language = {en},
  number = {8},
  urldate = {2015-10-15},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  author = {Wiebe, Keith and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Sands, Ronald and Tabeau, Andrzej and Mensbrugghe, Dominique van der and {Anne Biewald} and Bodirsky, Benjamin and Islam, Shahnila and Kavallari, Aikaterini and Mason-D’Croz, Daniel and {Christoph M\"uller} and Popp, Alexander and Robertson, Richard and Robinson, Sherman and Meijl, Hans van and Willenbockel, Dirk},
  year = {2015},
  pages = {085010},
}

@article{weindl_livestock_2015,
  title = {Livestock in a changing climate: production system transitions as an adaptation strategy for agriculture},
  volume = {10},
  issn = {1748-9326},
  shorttitle = {Livestock in a changing climate},
  url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/10/i=9/a=094021},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094021},
  abstract = {Livestock farming is the world's largest land use sector and utilizes around 60\% of the global biomass harvest. Over the coming decades, climate change will affect the natural resource base of livestock production, especially the productivity of rangeland and feed crops. Based on a comprehensive impact modeling chain, we assess implications of different climate projections for agricultural production costs and land use change and explore the effectiveness of livestock system transitions as an adaptation strategy. Simulated climate impacts on crop yields and rangeland productivity generate adaptation costs amounting to 3\% of total agricultural production costs in 2045 (i.e. 145 billion US\$). Shifts in livestock production towards mixed crop-livestock systems represent a resource- and cost-efficient adaptation option, reducing agricultural adaptation costs to 0.3\% of total production costs and simultaneously abating deforestation by about 76 million ha globally. The relatively positive climate impacts on grass yields compared with crop yields favor grazing systems inter alia in South Asia and North America. Incomplete transitions in production systems already have a strong adaptive and cost reducing effect: a 50\% shift to mixed systems lowers agricultural adaptation costs to 0.8\%. General responses of production costs to system transitions are robust across different global climate and crop models as well as regarding assumptions on CO 2 fertilization, but simulated values show a large variation. In the face of these uncertainties, public policy support for transforming livestock production systems provides an important lever to improve agricultural resource management and lower adaptation costs, possibly even contributing to emission reduction.},
  language = {en},
  number = {9},
  urldate = {2015-10-22},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  author = {Weindl, Isabelle and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Popp, Alexander and M\"uller, Christoph and Havlík, Petr and {Mario Herrero} and Schmitz, Christoph and Rolinski, Susanne},
  year = {2015},
  pages = {094021},
}

@article{popp_land_nodate,
  title = {Land use futures in the {Shared} {Socio}-{Economic} {Pathways}},
  journal = {Global Environmental Change},
  author = {Popp, Alexander and Calvin, Katherine and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Havlik, Petr and Humpenöder, Florian and Stehfest, Elke and Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon and Dietrich, Jan Philipp and Doelmann, Jonathan and Gusti, Mykola and Hasegawa, Tomoko and Kyle, Page and Obersteiner, Michael and Tabeau, Andrzej and Takahashi, Kiyoshi and Valin, Hugo and Waldhoff, Stephanie and Weindl, Isabelle and Wise, Marshall and Kriegler, Elmar and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Fricko, Oliver and Riahi, Keywan and Vuuren, Detlef van},
}

@article{schmitz_land-use_2014,
  title = {Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison},
  volume = {45},
  copyright = {© 2013 International Association of Agricultural Economists},
  issn = {1574-0862},
  shorttitle = {Land-use change trajectories up to 2050},
  url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/agec.12090/abstract},
  doi = {10.1111/agec.12090},
  abstract = {Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land-use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive comparison of global agro-economic models that have harmonized drivers of population, GDP, and biophysical yields. The comparison allows us to ask two research questions: (1) How much cropland will be used under different socioeconomic and climate change scenarios? (2) How can differences in model results be explained? The comparison includes four partial and six general equilibrium models that differ in how they model land supply and amount of potentially available land. We analyze results of two different socioeconomic scenarios and three climate scenarios (one with constant climate). Most models (7 out of 10) project an increase of cropland of 10–25\% by 2050 compared to 2005 (under constant climate), but one model projects a decrease. Pasture land expands in some models, which increase the treat on natural vegetation further. Across all models most of the cropland expansion takes place in South America and sub-Saharan Africa. In general, the strongest differences in model results are related to differences in the costs of land expansion, the endogenous productivity responses, and the assumptions about potential cropland.},
  language = {en},
  number = {1},
  urldate = {2015-12-16},
  journal = {Agricultural Economics},
  author = {Schmitz, Christoph and van Meijl, Hans and Kyle, Page and Nelson, Gerald C. and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Gurgel, Angelo and Havlik, Petr and Heyhoe, Edwina and d'Croz, Daniel Mason and Popp, Alexander and Sands, Ron and Tabeau, Andrzej and van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique and von Lampe, Martin and Wise, Marshall and Blanc, Elodie and Hasegawa, Tomoko and Kavallari, Aikaterini and Valin, Hugo},
  month = jan,
  year = {2014},
  keywords = {Land-use change, Q11, C68, Q54, model intercomparison, C61, Land-use models, Land expansion},
  pages = {69--84},
}

@techreport{biewald_impact_2015,
  address = {Potsdam},
  title = {The impact of climate change on costs of food and people exposed to hunger at subnational scale},
  url = {https://www.pik-potsdam.de/research/publications/pikreports/.files/pr128.pdf},
  number = {128},
  urldate = {2016-02-24},
  institution = {PIK},
  author = {Biewald, Anne and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Otto, Ilona and Brinckmann, Nils and Weindl, Isabelle and Popp, Alexander and Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim and Bodirsky, Benjamin},
  year = {2015},
}

@article{humpenoder_land-use_2015,
  title = {Land-{Use} and {Carbon} {Cycle} {Responses} to {Moderate} {Climate} {Change}: {Implications} for {Land}-{Based} {Mitigation}?},
  volume = {49},
  issn = {0013-936X, 1520-5851},
  shorttitle = {Land-{Use} and {Carbon} {Cycle} {Responses} to {Moderate} {Climate} {Change}},
  url = {http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es506201r},
  doi = {10.1021/es506201r},
  language = {en},
  number = {11},
  urldate = {2016-03-08},
  journal = {Environmental Science \& Technology},
  author = {Humpenöder, Florian and Popp, Alexander and Stevanovic, Miodrag and M\"uller, Christoph and Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon and Bonsch, Markus and Dietrich, Jan Philipp and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Weindl, Isabelle and Biewald, Anne and Rolinski, Susanne},
  month = jun,
  year = {2015},
  pages = {6731--6739},
}

@article{kreidenweis_afforestation_2016,
  title = {Afforestation to mitigate climate change: impacts on food prices under consideration of albedo effects},
  volume = {11},
  issn = {1748-9326},
  shorttitle = {Afforestation to mitigate climate change},
  url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/11/i=8/a=085001},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/085001},
  abstract = {Ambitious climate targets, such as the 2 °C target, are likely to require the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Afforestation is one such mitigation option but could, through the competition for land, also lead to food prices hikes. In addition, afforestation often decreases land-surface albedo and the amount of short-wave radiation reflected back to space, which results in a warming effect. In particular in the boreal zone, such biophysical warming effects following from afforestation are estimated to offset the cooling effect from carbon sequestration. We assessed the food price response of afforestation, and considered the albedo effect with scenarios in which afforestation was restricted to certain latitudinal zones. In our study, afforestation was incentivized by a globally uniform reward for carbon uptake in the terrestrial biosphere. This resulted in large-scale afforestation (2580 Mha globally) and substantial carbon sequestration (860 GtCO 2 ) up to the end of the century. However, it was also associated with an increase in food prices of about 80\% by 2050 and a more than fourfold increase by 2100. When afforestation was restricted to the tropics the food price response was substantially reduced, while still almost 60\% cumulative carbon sequestration was achieved. In the medium term, the increase in prices was then lower than the increase in income underlying our scenario projections. Moreover, our results indicate that more liberalised trade in agricultural commodities could buffer the food price increases following from afforestation in tropical regions.},
  language = {en},
  number = {8},
  urldate = {2016-07-28},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  author = {Kreidenweis, Ulrich and Humpenöder, Florian and Stevanovic, Miodrag and Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon and {Elmar Kriegler} and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Popp, Alexander},
  year = {2016},
  pages = {085001},
}

@article{stevanovic_impact_2016,
  title = {The impact of high-end climate change on agricultural welfare},
  volume = {2},
  copyright = {Copyright © 2016, The Authors. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license, which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited.},
  issn = {2375-2548},
  url = {http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/2/8/e1501452},
  doi = {10.1126/sciadv.1501452},
  language = {en},
  number = {8},
  urldate = {2016-08-25},
  journal = {Science Advances},
  author = {Stevanovic, Miodrag and Popp, Alexander and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Dietrich, Jan Philipp and M\"uller, Christoph and Bonsch, Markus and Schmitz, Christoph and Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon and Humpenöder, Florian and Weindl, Isabelle},
  month = aug,
  year = {2016},
  pages = {e1501452},
}

@article{stevanovic_agriculture_nodate,
  title = {Agriculture, {Forestry}, and {Other} {Land}-{Use} {Emissions} {Abatement}: {Mitigation} {Strategies} and {Consequences} for {Food} {Prices}},
  journal = {Environmental Science \& Technology},
  author = {Stevanovic, Miodrag and Popp, Alexander and Bodirsky, Benjamin L. and Humpenöder, Florian and M\"uller, Christoph and Weindl, Isabelle and Dietrich, Jan Philip and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Kreidenweis, Ulrich and Rolinski, Susanne and Biewald, Anne and Wang, Xiaoxi}
}

@article{popp_land-use_nodate,
  title = {Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways},
  issn = {0959-3780},
  url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016303399},
  doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.10.002},
  abstract = {In the future, the land system will be facing new intersecting challenges. While food demand, especially for resource-intensive livestock based commodities, is expected to increase, the terrestrial system has large potentials for climate change mitigation through improved agricultural management, providing biomass for bioenergy, and conserving or even enhancing carbon stocks of ecosystems. However, uncertainties in future socio-economic land use drivers may result in very different land-use dynamics and consequences for land-based ecosystem services. This is the first study with a systematic interpretation of the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) in terms of possible land-use changes and their consequences for the agricultural system, food provision and prices as well as greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, five alternative Integrated Assessment Models with distinctive land-use modules have been used for the translation of the SSP narratives into quantitative projections. The model results reflect the general storylines of the SSPs and indicate a broad range of potential land-use futures with global agricultural land of 4900 mio ha in 2005 decreasing by 810 mio ha until 2100 at the lower (SSP1) and increasing by 1080 mio ha (SSP3) at the upper end. Greenhouse gas emissions from land use and land use change, as a direct outcome of these diverse land-use dynamics, and agricultural production systems differ strongly across SSPs (e.g. cumulative land use change emissions between 2005 and 2100 range from −54 to 402 Gt CO2). The inclusion of land-based mitigation efforts, particularly those in the most ambitious mitigation scenarios, further broadens the range of potential land futures and can strongly affect greenhouse gas dynamics and food prices. In general, it can be concluded that low demand for agricultural commodities, rapid growth in agricultural productivity and globalized trade, all most pronounced in a SSP1 world, have the potential to enhance the extent of natural ecosystems, lead to lowest greenhouse gas emissions from the land system and decrease food prices over time. The SSP-based land use pathways presented in this paper aim at supporting future climate research and provide the basis for further regional integrated assessments, biodiversity research and climate impact analysis.},
  urldate = {2016-12-23},
  journal = {Global Environmental Change},
  author = {Popp, Alexander and Calvin, Katherine and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Havlik, Petr and Humpenöder, Florian and Stehfest, Elke and Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon and Dietrich, Jan Philipp and Doelmann, Jonathan C. and Gusti, Mykola and Hasegawa, Tomoko and Kyle, Page and Obersteiner, Michael and Tabeau, Andrzej and Takahashi, Kiyoshi and Valin, Hugo and Waldhoff, Stephanie and Weindl, Isabelle and Wise, Marshall and Kriegler, Elmar and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Fricko, Oliver and Riahi, Keywan and Vuuren, Detlef P. van},
  keywords = {land use, Emissions, mitigation, Scenarios, Integrated assessment, Food prices, SSP},
}

@article{stevanovic_mitigation_2017,
  title = {Mitigation {Strategies} for {Greenhouse} {Gas} {Emissions} from {Agriculture} and {Land}-{Use} {Change}: {Consequences} for {Food} {Prices}},
  volume = {51},
  issn = {0013-936X},
  shorttitle = {Mitigation {Strategies} for {Greenhouse} {Gas} {Emissions} from {Agriculture} and {Land}-{Use} {Change}},
  url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.6b04291},
  doi = {10.1021/acs.est.6b04291},
  abstract = {The land use sector of agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) plays a central role in ambitious climate change mitigation efforts. Yet, mitigation policies in agriculture may be in conflict with food security related targets. Using a global agro–economic model, we analyze the impacts on food prices under mitigation policies targeting either incentives for producers (e.g., through taxes) or consumer preferences (e.g., through education programs). Despite having a similar reduction potential of 43–44\% in 2100, the two types of policy instruments result in opposite outcomes for food prices. Incentive-based mitigation, such as protecting carbon-rich forests or adopting low-emission production techniques, increase land scarcity and production costs and thereby food prices. Preference-based mitigation, such as reduced household waste or lower consumption of animal-based products, decreases land scarcity, prevents emissions leakage, and concentrates production on the most productive sites and consequently lowers food prices. Whereas agricultural emissions are further abated in the combination of these mitigation measures, the synergy of strategies fails to substantially lower food prices. Additionally, we demonstrate that the efficiency of agricultural emission abatement is stable across a range of greenhouse-gas (GHG) tax levels, while resulting food prices exhibit a disproportionally larger spread.},
  number = {1},
  urldate = {2017-01-05},
  journal = {Environmental Science \& Technology},
  author = {Stevanovic, Miodrag and Popp, Alexander and Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon and Humpenöder, Florian and M\"uller, Christoph and Weindl, Isabelle and Dietrich, Jan Philipp and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Kreidenweis, Ulrich and Rolinski, Susanne and Biewald, Anne and Wang, Xiaoxi},
  month = jan,
  year = {2017},
  pages = {365--374},
}

@article{kriegler_fossil-fueled_2017,
  title = {Fossil-fueled development ({SSP}5): {An} energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century},
  volume = {42},
  issn = {0959-3780},
  shorttitle = {Fossil-fueled development ({SSP}5)},
  url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016300711},
  doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.015},
  abstract = {This paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 baseline scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, marking the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. These scenarios are currently the only SSP scenarios that result in a radiative forcing pathway as high as the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the SSP5 energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. The SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development.},
  urldate = {2017-04-19},
  journal = {Global Environmental Change},
  author = {Kriegler, Elmar and Bauer, Nico and Popp, Alexander and Humpenöder, Florian and Leimbach, Marian and Strefler, Jessica and Baumstark, Lavinia and Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon and Hilaire, Jérôme and Klein, David and Mouratiadou, Ioanna and Weindl, Isabelle and Bertram, Christoph and Dietrich, Jan-Philipp and Luderer, Gunnar and Pehl, Michaja and Pietzcker, Robert and Piontek, Franziska and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Biewald, Anne and Bonsch, Markus and Giannousakis, Anastasis and Kreidenweis, Ulrich and M\"uller, Christoph and Rolinski, Susanne and Schultes, Anselm and Schwanitz, Jana and Stevanovic, Miodrag and Calvin, Katherine and Emmerling, Johannes and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Edenhofer, Ottmar},
  month = jan,
  year = {2017},
  keywords = {Land-use change, Integrated assessment modeling, Shared Socio-economic Pathway, SSP5, Emission scenario, Energy transformation},
  pages = {297--315},
}

@article{popp_land-use_2017,
  title = {Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways},
  volume = {42},
  issn = {0959-3780},
  url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016303399},
  doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.10.002},
  abstract = {In the future, the land system will be facing new intersecting challenges. While food demand, especially for resource-intensive livestock based commodities, is expected to increase, the terrestrial system has large potentials for climate change mitigation through improved agricultural management, providing biomass for bioenergy, and conserving or even enhancing carbon stocks of ecosystems. However, uncertainties in future socio-economic land use drivers may result in very different land-use dynamics and consequences for land-based ecosystem services. This is the first study with a systematic interpretation of the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) in terms of possible land-use changes and their consequences for the agricultural system, food provision and prices as well as greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, five alternative Integrated Assessment Models with distinctive land-use modules have been used for the translation of the SSP narratives into quantitative projections. The model results reflect the general storylines of the SSPs and indicate a broad range of potential land-use futures with global agricultural land of 4900 mio ha in 2005 decreasing by 743 mio ha until 2100 at the lower (SSP1) and increasing by 1080 mio ha (SSP3) at the upper end. Greenhouse gas emissions from land use and land use change, as a direct outcome of these diverse land-use dynamics, and agricultural production systems differ strongly across SSPs (e.g. cumulative land use change emissions between 2005 and 2100 range from −54 to 402 Gt CO2). The inclusion of land-based mitigation efforts, particularly those in the most ambitious mitigation scenarios, further broadens the range of potential land futures and can strongly affect greenhouse gas dynamics and food prices. In general, it can be concluded that low demand for agricultural commodities, rapid growth in agricultural productivity and globalized trade, all most pronounced in a SSP1 world, have the potential to enhance the extent of natural ecosystems, lead to lowest greenhouse gas emissions from the land system and decrease food prices over time. The SSP-based land use pathways presented in this paper aim at supporting future climate research and provide the basis for further regional integrated assessments, biodiversity research and climate impact analysis.},
  urldate = {2017-04-19},
  journal = {Global Environmental Change},
  author = {Popp, Alexander and Calvin, Katherine and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Havlik, Petr and Humpenöder, Florian and Stehfest, Elke and Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon and Dietrich, Jan Philipp and Doelmann, Jonathan C. and Gusti, Mykola and Hasegawa, Tomoko and Kyle, Page and Obersteiner, Michael and Tabeau, Andrzej and Takahashi, Kiyoshi and Valin, Hugo and Waldhoff, Stephanie and Weindl, Isabelle and Wise, Marshall and Kriegler, Elmar and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Fricko, Oliver and Riahi, Keywan and Vuuren, Detlef P. van},
  month = jan,
  year = {2017},
  keywords = {land use, Emissions, mitigation, Scenarios, Integrated assessment, Food prices, SSP},
  pages = {331--345},
}

@article{lotze-campen_cross-scale_2017,
  title = {A cross-scale impact assessment of {European} nature protection policies under contrasting future socio-economic pathways},
  issn = {1436-3798, 1436-378X},
  url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10113-017-1167-8},
  doi = {10.1007/s10113-017-1167-8},
  abstract = {Protection of natural or semi-natural ecosystems is an important part of societal strategies for maintaining biodiversity, ecosystem services, and achieving overall sustainable development. The assessment of multiple emerging land use trade-offs is complicated by the fact that land use changes occur and have consequences at local, regional, and even global scale. Outcomes also depend on the underlying socio-economic trends. We apply a coupled, multi-scale modelling system to assess an increase in nature protection areas as a key policy option in the European Union (EU). The main goal of the analysis is to understand the interactions between policy-induced land use changes across different scales and sectors under two contrasting future socio-economic pathways. We demonstrate how complementary insights into land system change can be gained by coupling land use models for agriculture, forestry, and urban areas for Europe, in connection with other world regions. The simulated policy case of nature protection shows how the allocation of a certain share of total available land to newly protected areas, with specific management restrictions imposed, may have a range of impacts on different land-based sectors until the year 2040. Agricultural land in Europe is slightly reduced, which is partly compensated for by higher management intensity. As a consequence of higher costs, total calorie supply per capita is reduced within the EU. While wood harvest is projected to decrease, carbon sequestration rates increase in European forests. At the same time, imports of industrial roundwood from other world regions are expected to increase. Some of the aggregate effects of nature protection have very different implications at the local to regional scale in different parts of Europe. Due to nature protection measures, agricultural production is shifted from more productive land in Europe to on average less productive land in other parts of the world. This increases, at the global level, the allocation of land resources for agriculture, leading to a decrease in tropical forest areas, reduced carbon stocks, and higher greenhouse gas emissions outside of Europe. The integrated modelling framework provides a method to assess the land use effects of a single policy option while accounting for the trade-offs between locations, and between regional, European, and global scales.},
  language = {en},
  urldate = {2017-05-16},
  journal = {Regional Environmental Change},
  author = {Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Verburg, Peter H. and Popp, Alexander and Lindner, Marcus and Verkerk, Pieter J. and Moiseyev, Alexander and Schrammeijer, Elizabeth and Helming, John and Tabeau, Andrzej and Schulp, Catharina J. E. and Zanden, Emma H. van der and Lavalle, Carlo and Silva, Filipe Batista e and Walz, Ariane and Bodirsky, Benjamin},
  month = may,
  year = {2017},
  pages = {1--12},
}

@article{weindl_livestock_2017,
  title = {Livestock production and the water challenge of future food supply: {Implications} of agricultural management and dietary choices},
  volume = {47},
  issn = {0959-3780},
  shorttitle = {Livestock production and the water challenge of future food supply},
  url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378017303692},
  doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.09.010},
  abstract = {Human activities use more than half of accessible freshwater, above all for agriculture. Most approaches for reconciling water conservation with feeding a growing population focus on the cropping sector. However, livestock production is pivotal to agricultural resource use, due to its low resource-use efficiency upstream in the food supply chain. Using a global modelling approach, we quantify the current and future contribution of livestock production, under different demand- and supply-side scenarios, to the consumption of “green” precipitation water infiltrated into the soil and “blue” freshwater withdrawn from rivers, lakes and reservoirs. Currently, cropland feed production accounts for 38\% of crop water consumption and grazing involves 29\% of total agricultural water consumption (9990km3yr−1). Our analysis shows that changes in diets and livestock productivity have substantial implications for future consumption of agricultural blue water (19–36\% increase compared to current levels) and green water (26–69\% increase), but they can, at best, slow down trends of rising water requirements for decades to come. However, moderate productivity reductions in highly intensive livestock systems are possible without aggravating water scarcity. Productivity gains in developing regions decrease total agricultural water consumption, but lead to expansion of irrigated agriculture, due to the shift from grassland/green water to cropland/blue water resources. While the magnitude of the livestock water footprint gives cause for concern, neither dietary choices nor changes in livestock productivity will solve the water challenge of future food supply, unless accompanied by dedicated water protection policies.},
  number = {Supplement C},
  urldate = {2017-11-01},
  journal = {Global Environmental Change},
  author = {Weindl, Isabelle and Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon and Rolinski, Susanne and Biewald, Anne and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and M\"uller, Christoph and Dietrich, Jan Philipp and Humpenöder, Florian and Stevanovic, Miodrag and Schaphoff, Sibyll and Popp, Alexander},
  month = nov,
  year = {2017},
  keywords = {livestock, water scarcity, Productivity, consumptive water use, Dietary changes, Water resources},
  pages = {121--132},
}

@article{weindl_livestock_2017-1,
  title = {Livestock and human use of land: {Productivity} trends and dietary choices as drivers of future land and carbon dynamics},
  volume = {159},
  issn = {0921-8181},
  shorttitle = {Livestock and human use of land},
  url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818117301480},
  doi = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.10.002},
  abstract = {Land use change has been the primary driving force of human alteration of terrestrial ecosystems. With 80\% of agricultural land dedicated to livestock production, the sector is an important lever to attenuate land requirements for food production and carbon emissions from land use change. In this study, we quantify impacts of changing human diets and livestock productivity on land dynamics and depletion of carbon stored in vegetation, litter and soils. Across all investigated productivity pathways, lower consumption of livestock products can substantially reduce deforestation (47–55\%) and cumulative carbon losses (34–57\%). On the supply side, already minor productivity growth in extensive livestock production systems leads to substantial CO2 emission abatement, but the emission saving potential of productivity gains in intensive systems is limited, also involving trade-offs with soil carbon stocks. If accounting for uncertainties related to future trade restrictions, crop yields and pasture productivity, the range of projected carbon savings from changing diets increases to 23–78\%. Highest abatement of carbon emissions (63–78\%) can be achieved if reduced consumption of animal-based products is combined with sustained investments into productivity increases in plant production. Our analysis emphasizes the importance to integrate demand- and supply-side oriented mitigation strategies and to combine efforts in the crop and livestock sector to enable synergies for climate protection.},
  number = {Supplement C},
  urldate = {2017-11-01},
  journal = {Global and Planetary Change},
  author = {Weindl, Isabelle and Popp, Alexander and Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon and Rolinski, Susanne and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Biewald, Anne and Humpenöder, Florian and Dietrich, Jan Philipp and Stevanovic, Miodrag},
  month = dec,
  year = {2017},
  keywords = {land use, Deforestation, Greenhouse gas mitigation, Livestock productivity, Diets, Carbon emissions},
  pages = {1--10},
}

@techreport{meijl_challenges_2017,
  address = {Luxembourg},
  title = {Challenges of {Global} {Agriculture} in a {Climate} {Change} {Context} by 2050 - {AgCLIM}50},
  url = {https://publications.europa.eu/portal2012-portlet/html/downloadHandler.jsp?identifier=8724c378-562d-11e7-a5ca-01aa75ed71a1&format=pdf&language=en&productionSystem=cellar&part=},
  urldate = {2017-11-01},
  institution = {Publications Office of the European Union},
  author = {Meijl, Hans van and Havlik, Petr and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Stehfest, Elke and Witzke, Peter and Perez Dominguez, Ignacio and Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon and van Dijk, Michiel and Doelman, Jonathan and Fellmann, T. and Humpenöder, Florian and Levin-Koopman, J and M\"uller, Christoph and Popp, Alexander and Tabeau, Andrzej and Valin, Hugo},
  year = {2017},
  pages = {64},
}

@article{krause_global_2017,
  title = {Global consequences of afforestation and bioenergy cultivation on ecosystem service indicators},
  volume = {14},
  issn = {1726-4189},
  url = {https://www.biogeosciences.net/14/4829/2017/},
  doi = {10.5194/bg-14-4829-2017},
  abstract = {Land management for carbon storage is discussed as being indispensable for climate change mitigation because of its large potential to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and to avoid further emissions from deforestation. However, the acceptance and feasibility of land-based mitigation projects depends on potential side effects on other important ecosystem functions and their services. Here, we use projections of future land use and land cover for different land-based mitigation options from two land-use models (IMAGE and MAgPIE) and evaluate their effects with a global dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS). In the land-use models, carbon removal was achieved either via growth of bioenergy crops combined with carbon capture and storage, via avoided deforestation and afforestation, or via a combination of both. We compare these scenarios to a reference scenario without land-based mitigation and analyse the LPJ-GUESS simulations with the aim of assessing synergies and trade-offs across a range of ecosystem service indicators: carbon storage, surface albedo, evapotranspiration, water runoff, crop production, nitrogen loss, and emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds.  In our mitigation simulations cumulative carbon storage by year 2099 ranged between 55 and 89 GtC. Other ecosystem service indicators were influenced heterogeneously both positively and negatively, with large variability across regions and land-use scenarios. Avoided deforestation and afforestation led to an increase in evapotranspiration and enhanced emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds, and to a decrease in albedo, runoff, and nitrogen loss. Crop production could also decrease in the afforestation scenarios as a result of reduced crop area, especially for MAgPIE land-use patterns, if assumed increases in crop yields cannot be realized. Bioenergy-based climate change mitigation was projected to affect less area globally than in the forest expansion scenarios, and resulted in less pronounced changes in most ecosystem service indicators than forest-based mitigation, but included a possible decrease in nitrogen loss, crop production, and biogenic volatile organic compounds emissions.},
  number = {21},
  urldate = {2017-11-03},
  journal = {Biogeosciences},
  author = {Krause, A. and Pugh, T. A. M. and Bayer, A. D. and Doelman, J. C. and Humpenöder, F. and Anthoni, P. and Olin, S. and Bodirsky, B. L. and Popp, A. and Stehfest, E. and Arneth, A.},
  month = nov,
  year = {2017},
  pages = {4829--4850},
}

@article{humpenoeder_bioenergy_2018,
  title = {Large-scale bioenergy production: how to resolve sustainability trade-offs?},
  volume = {13},
  copyright = {All rights reserved},
  issn = {1748-9326},
  shorttitle = {Large-scale bioenergy production},
  url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/13/i=2/a=024011},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aa9e3b},
  abstract = {Large-scale 2nd generation bioenergy deployment is a key element of 1.5 °C and 2 °C transformation pathways. However, large-scale bioenergy production might have negative sustainability implications and thus may conflict with the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) agenda. Here, we carry out a multi-criteria sustainability assessment of large-scale bioenergy crop production throughout the 21st century (300 EJ in 2100) using a global land-use model. Our analysis indicates that large-scale bioenergy production without complementary measures results in negative effects on the following sustainability indicators: deforestation, CO 2 emissions from land-use change, nitrogen losses, unsustainable water withdrawals and food prices. One of our main findings is that single-sector environmental protection measures next to large-scale bioenergy production are prone to involve trade-offs among these sustainability indicators—at least in the absence of more efficient land or water resource use. For instance, if bioenergy production is accompanied by forest protection, deforestation and associated emissions (SDGs 13 and 15) decline substantially whereas food prices (SDG 2) increase. However, our study also shows that this trade-off strongly depends on the development of future food demand. In contrast to environmental protection measures, we find that agricultural intensification lowers some side-effects of bioenergy production substantially (SDGs 13 and 15) without generating new trade-offs—at least among the sustainability indicators considered here. Moreover, our results indicate that a combination of forest and water protection schemes, improved fertilization efficiency, and agricultural intensification would reduce the side-effects of bioenergy production most comprehensively. However, although our study includes more sustainability indicators than previous studies on bioenergy side-effects, our study represents only a small subset of all indicators relevant for the SDG agenda. Based on this, we argue that the development of policies for regulating externalities of large-scale bioenergy production should rely on broad sustainability assessments to discover potential trade-offs with the SDG agenda before implementation.},
  language = {en},
  number = {2},
  urldate = {2018-02-01},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  author = {Humpenöder, Florian and Popp, Alexander and Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon and Weindl, Isabelle and Biewald, Anne and {Hermann Lotze-Campen} and Dietrich, Jan Philipp and Klein, David and Kreidenweis, Ulrich and Müller, Christoph and {Susanne Rolinski} and Stevanovic, Miodrag},
  year = {2018},
  pages = {024011},
}

@article{humpenoder_peatland_2020,
  title = {Peatland protection and restoration are key for climate change mitigation},
  volume = {15},
  copyright = {All rights reserved},
  issn = {1748-9326},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088%2F1748-9326%2Fabae2a},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/abae2a},
  abstract = {Peatlands cover only about 3\% the global land area, but store about twice as much carbon as global forest biomass. If intact peatlands are drained for agriculture or other human uses, peat oxidation can result in considerable CO2 emissions and other greenhouse gases (GHG) for decades or even centuries. Despite their importance, emissions from degraded peatlands have so far not been included explicitly in mitigation pathways compatible with the Paris Agreement. Such pathways include land-demanding mitigation options like bioenergy or afforestation with substantial consequences for the land system. Therefore, besides GHG emissions owing to the historic conversion of intact peatlands, the increased demand for land in current mitigation pathways could result in drainage of presently intact peatlands, e.g. for bioenergy production. Here, we present the first quantitative model-based projections of future peatland dynamics and associated GHG emissions in the context of a 2 °C mitigation pathway. Our spatially explicit land-use modelling approach with global coverage simultaneously accounts for future food demand, based on population and income projections, and land-based mitigation measures. Without dedicated peatland policy and even in the case of peatland protection, our results indicate that the land system would remain a net source of CO2 throughout the 21st century. This result is in contrast to the outcome of current mitigation pathways, in which the land system turns into a net carbon sink by 2100. However, our results indicate that it is possible to reconcile land use and GHG emissions in mitigation pathways through a peatland protection and restoration policy. According to our results, the land system would turn into a global net carbon sink by 2100, as projected by current mitigation pathways, if about 60\% of present-day degraded peatlands would be rewetted in the coming decades, next to the protection of intact peatlands.},
  language = {en},
  number = {10},
  urldate = {2020-10-12},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  author = {Humpenöder, Florian and Karstens, Kristine and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Leifeld, Jens and Menichetti, Lorenzo and Barthelmes, Alexandra and Popp, Alexander},
  month = oct,
  year = {2020},
  note = {Publisher: IOP Publishing},
  pages = {104093},
}


@article{leifeld_2018,
    title = {The underappreciated potential of peatlands in global climate change mitigation strategies},
    volume = {9},
    copyright = {2018 The Author(s)},
    issn = {2041-1723},
    url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-03406-6},
    doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-03406-6},
    abstract = {Human activity, such as draining and mining of peatlands, is transforming these long-term carbon sinks into sources. Here, the authors assess current and future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from degrading peatlands and estimate the magnitude of potential GHG savings that could be achieved by restoring them.},
    language = {en},
    number = {1},
    urldate = {2018-05-11},
    journal = {Nature Communications},
    author = {Leifeld, J. and Menichetti, L.},
    month = mar,
    year = {2018},
    pages = {1071},
}


@book{IPCC_wetland_2013,
    address = {Switzerland},
    title = {2013 {Supplement} to the 2006 {IPCC} {Guidelines} for {National} {Greenhouse} {Gas} {Inventories}: {Wetlands}},
    url = {http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/wetlands/},
    publisher = {IPCC},
    editor = {Hiraishi, T and Krug, T and Tanabe, K and Srivastava, N and Baasansuren, J and Fukuda, M and Troxler, T.G.},
    year = {2014},
}

@article{valin_fooddemand_2013,
  title = {The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models},
  issn = {1574-0862},
  shorttitle = {The future of food demand},
  url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/agec.12089},
  doi = {10.1111/agec.12089},
  abstract = {Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires projecting future food demand. This article reviews demand modeling approaches from 10 global economic models participating in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). We compare food demand projections in 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios of socioeconomic development, climate change, and bioenergy expansion. In the reference scenario (SSP2), food demand increases by 59–98% between 2005 and 2050, slightly higher than the most recent FAO projection of 54% from 2005/2007. The range of results is large, in particular for animal calories (between 61% and 144%), caused by differences in demand systems specifications, and in income and price elasticities. The results are more sensitive to socioeconomic assumptions than to climate change or bioenergy scenarios. When considering a world with higher population and lower economic growth (SSP3), consumption per capita drops on average by 9% for crops and 18% for livestock. The maximum effect of climate change on calorie availability is −6% at the global level, and the effect of biofuel production on calorie availability is even smaller.},
  language = {en},
  urldate = {2018-04-09},
  journal = {Agricultural Economics},
  author = {Valin, Hugo and Sands, Ronald D. and van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique and Nelson, Gerald C. and Ahammad, Helal and Blanc, Elodie and Bodirsky, Benjamin and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Hasegawa, Tomoko and Havlik, Petr and Heyhoe, Edwina and Kyle, Page and Mason-D'Croz, Daniel and Paltsev, Sergey and Rolinski, Susanne and Tabeau, Andrzej and van Meijl, Hans and von Lampe, Martin and Willenbockel, Dirk},
  year = {2013},
  volume = {45},
  number = {1},
  pages = {51-67},
  keywords = {World food demand, Socioeconomic pathways, Climate change, Computable general equilibrium, Partial equilibrium, C63, C68, Q11, Q54},
}

@techreport{nelson_transport_2008,
  address = {Luxembourg},
  title = {Travel time to major cities: A global map of Accessibility},
  url = {http://forobs.jrc.ec.europa.eu/products/gam/index.php},
  urldate = {2018-09-04},
  doi = {10.2788/95835},
  isbn = {978-92-79-09771-3},
  institution = {Office for Official Publications of the European Communities},
  author = {Nelson, A},
  year = {2008}
}

@article{mueller_projecting_2014,
  title = {Projecting future crop productivity for global economic modeling.},
  journal = {Agricultural Economics},
  volume = {45},
  number = {1},
  pages = {37-50},
  author = {M\"uller, C., and Robertson, R. D.},
  year = {2014}
}

@article{hurtt2018luh2,
  title = {LUH2: Harmonization of global land-use scenarios for the period 850-2100},
  author = {Hurtt, George C and Chini, Louise P and Sahajpal, Ritvik and Frolking, Steve E and Bodirsky, Benjamin and Calvin, Katherine V and Doelman, Jonathan C and Fisk, Justin and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Goldewijk, Kees and et al.},
  journal = {AGUFM},
  volume = {2018},
  pages = {GC13A--01},
  year = {2018}
}

@article{biemans_water_2011,
  author = {H. Biemans and I. Haddeland and P. Kabat and F. Ludwig and R. W. A. Hutjes and J. Heinke and W. von Bloh and D. Gerten},
  title = {Impact of reservoirs on river discharge and irrigation water supply during the 20th century},
  journal = {Water Resources Research},
  volume = {47},
  number = {3},
  pages = {},
  issn = {1944-7973},
  keywords = {global water resources, irrigation, reservoirs, human impacts},
  doi = {10.1029/2009WR008929},
  url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2009WR008929},
  urldate = {2018-14-04},
  eprint = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2009WR008929},
  abstract = {This paper presents a quantitative estimation of the impact of reservoirs on discharge and irrigation water supply during the 20th century at global, continental, and river basin scale. Compared to a natural situation the combined effect of reservoir operation and irrigation extractions decreased mean annual discharge to oceans and significantly changed the timing of this discharge. For example, in Europe, May discharge decreased by 10\%, while in February it increased by 8\%. At the end of the 20th century, reservoir operations and irrigation extractions decreased annual global discharge by about 2.1\% (930 km3 yr−1). Simulation results show that reservoirs contribute significantly to irrigation water supply in many regions. Basins that rely heavily on reservoir water are the Colorado and Columbia River basins in the United States and several large basins in India, China, and central Asia (e.g., in the Krishna and Huang He basins, reservoirs more than doubled surface water supply). Continents gaining the most are North America, Africa, and Asia, where reservoirs supplied 57, 22, and 360 km3 yr−1 respectively between 1981–2000, which is in all cases 40\% more than the availability in the situation without reservoirs. Globally, the irrigation water supply from reservoirs increased from around 18 km3 yr−1 (adding 5\% to surface water supply) at the beginning of the 20th century to 460 km3 yr−1 (adding almost 40\% to surface water supply) at the end of the 20th century. The analysis is performed using a newly developed and validated reservoir operation scheme within a global‐scale hydrology and vegetation model (LPJmL).},
  year = {2011},
}

@article{bondeau_lpjml_2007,
  author = {Alberte Bondeau and Pascalle C. Smith and Sönke Zaehle And Sibyll Schaphoff and Wolfgang Lucht and Wolfgang Cramer and Dieter Gerten and Hermann Lotze-Campen and Christoph M\"uller and Markus Reichstein and Benjamin Smith},
  title = {Modelling the role of agriculture for the 20th century global terrestrial carbon balance},
  journal = {Global Change Biology},
  volume = {13},
  number = {3},
  pages = {679-706},
  issn = {1365-2486},
  keywords = {agriculture, crop functional type, global biogeochemistry},
  doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01305.x},
  url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01305.x},
  urldate = {2018-14-04},
  eprint = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01305.x},
  abstract = {Abstract In order to better assess the role of agriculture within the global climate‐vegetation system, we present a model of the managed planetary land surface, Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed Land (LPJmL), which simulates biophysical and biogeochemical processes as well as productivity and yield of the most important crops worldwide, using a concept of crop functional types (CFTs). Based on the LPJ‐Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, LPJmL simulates the transient changes in carbon and water cycles due to land use, the specific phenology and seasonal CO2 fluxes of agricultural‐dominated areas, and the production of crops and grazing land. It uses 13 CFTs (11 arable crops and two managed grass types), with specific parameterizations of phenology connected to leaf area development. Carbon is allocated daily towards four carbon pools, one being the yield-bearing storage organs. Management (irrigation, treatment of residues, intercropping) can be considered in order to capture their effect on productivity, on soil organic carbon and on carbon extracted from the ecosystem. For transient simulations for the 20th century, a global historical land use data set was developed, providing the annual cover fraction of the 13 CFTs, rain‐fed and/or irrigated, within 0.5° grid cells for the period 1901–2000, using published data on land use, crop distributions and irrigated areas. Several key results are compared with observations. The simulated spatial distribution of sowing dates for temperate cereals is comparable with the reported crop calendars. The simulated seasonal canopy development agrees better with satellite observations when actual cropland distribution is taken into account. Simulated yields for temperate cereals and maize compare well with FAO statistics. Monthly carbon fluxes measured at three agricultural sites also compare well with simulations. Global simulations indicate a ∼24\% (respectively ∼10\%) reduction in global vegetation (respectively soil) carbon due to agriculture, and 6–9 Pg C of yearly harvested biomass in the 1990s. In contrast to simulations of the potential natural vegetation showing the land biosphere to be an increasing carbon sink during the 20th century, LPJmL simulates a net carbon source until the 1970s (due to land use), and a small sink (mostly due to changing climate and CO2) after 1970. This is comparable with earlier LPJ simulations using a more simple land use scheme, and within the uncertainty range of estimates in the 1980s and 1990s. The fluxes attributed to land use change compare well with Houghton's estimates on the land use related fluxes until the 1970s, but then they begin to diverge, probably due to the different rates of deforestation considered. The simulated impacts of agriculture on the global water cycle for the 1990s are∼5\% (respectively∼20\%) reduction in transpiration (respectively interception), and∼44\% increase in evaporation. Global runoff, which includes a simple irrigation scheme, is practically not affected.},
  year = {2007},
}

@book{narayanan_gtap7_2008,
  author = {Narayanan, G. Badri and Walmsley,Terrie L., Eds.},
  title = {Global Trade, Assistance, and Production: The GTAP 7 Data Base},
  publisher = {Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University},
  url = {http://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/databases/v7/v7_doco.asp},
  urldate = {2018-24-04},
  year = {2008},
}

@article{siebert_FAO_2007,
  author = {Stefan Siebert and Petra Döll and Sebastian Feick and Jippe Hoogeveen and Karen Frenken},
  title = {Global Map of Irrigation Areas version 4.0.1.},
  journal = {Johann Wolfgang Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main, Germany / Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy.},
  url = {http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/irrigationmap/index10.stm},
  year = {2007},
}

@book{fao_aquastat_2016,
  address = {Rome},
  title = {{AQUASTAT} core database},
  publisher = {Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)},
  author = {{FAO}},
  url = {{https://data.harvestportal.org/de/dataset/fao-aquastat/resource/c4668555-eb76-4882-83b1-230038e24f02?inner_span=True}},
  year = {2016},
  note = {Database accessed on 2023/02/06}
}

@techreport{worldbank_irrigation_1995,
  title = {World Bank and Irrigation},
  institution = {World Bank},
  author = {William I. Jones},
  year = {1995},
  address = {Washington, D.C.},
}

@techreport{PIK_report104_2007,
  title = {DEVELOPMENT OF FUNCTIONAL IRRIGATION TYPES FOR IMPROVED GLOBAL CROP MODELLING},
  institution = {PIK},
  author = {Janine Rohwer and Dieter Gerten and Wolfgang Lucht},
  year = {2007},
  address = {Potsdam},
}

@book{smakhtin_water_2004,
  author = {Smakhtin, V. and C. Revenga and P. Döll and et al},
  title = {Taking into Account Environmental Water Requirements in Global-scale Water Resources Assessments},
  year = {2004},
}

@article{wada_modeling_2016,
  title = {Modeling global water use for the 21st century: the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative and its approaches},
  author = {Wada, Y. and Flörke, M. and Hanasaki, N. et al.},
  journal = {Geosci. Model Dev.},
  volume = {9},
  pages = {175-222},
  year = {2016},
}

@article{rubel_observed_2010,
  title = {Observed and projected climate shifts 1901-2100 depicted by world maps of the {Köppen}-{Geiger} climate classification},
  issn = {,},
  url = {https://www.schweizerbart.de/papers/metz/detail/19/74932/Observed_and_projected_climate_shifts_1901_2100_de?af=crossref},
  doi = {10.1127/0941-2948/2010/0430},
  language = {en},
  urldate = {2018-05-22},
  journal = {Meteorologische Zeitschrift},
  author = {Rubel, Franz and Kottek, Markus},
  month = apr,
  year = {2010},
  pages = {135--141},
}

@phdthesis{wirsenius_human_2000,
  type = {Doctoral thesis},
  title = {Human {Use} of {Land} and {Organic} {Materials}: {Modeling} the {Turnover} of {Biomass} in the {Global} {Food} {System}},
  shorttitle = {Human {Use} of {Land} and {Organic} {Materials}},
  url = {http://publications.lib.chalmers.se/publication/827-human-use-of-land-and-organic-materials-modeling-the-turnover-of-biomass-in-the-global-food-system},
  abstract = {This thesis is directed towards the issue of the long-term demand and supply of biomass for food, energy and materials. In the coming decades, the global requirements for biomass for such services are likely to increase substantially. Therefore, improved knowledge of options for mitigating the long-term production requirements and the associated effects on the Earth system is essential. {\textless}p /{\textgreater}The thesis gives a thorough survey of the current flows of biomass in the food system. This survey was carried out by means of a physical model which was developed as part of the work. For eight world regions, the model is used to calculate the necessary production of crops and other phytomass from a prescribed end-use of food, efficiency in food production and processing, as well as use of by-products and residues. The model includes all major categories of phytomass used in the food system, depicts all flows and processes on a mass and energy balance basis, and contains detailed descriptions of the production and use of all major by-products and residues generated within the system. {\textless}p /{\textgreater}The global appropriation of terrestrial phytomass production induced by the food system was estimated to some 13 Pg dry matter per year in 1992-94. Of this phytomass, about 0.97 Pg, or 7.5 percent, ended up as food commodities eaten. Animal food systems accounted for roughly two-thirds of the total appropriation of phytomass, whereas their contribution to the human diet was about one-tenth. Use of by-products and residues as feed, and for other purposes within the food system, was estimated to about 1.8 Pg dry matter, or 14 percent of the total phytomass appropriation. {\textless}p /{\textgreater}The results also show large differences in efficiency for animal food systems, between regions as well as between separate commodities. The feed conversion efficiencies of cattle meat systems were estimated to about 2 percent in industrial regions, and around 0.5 percent in most non-industrial regions (on gross energy basis). For pig and poultry systems, feed conversion efficiencies were roughly a factor of ten higher. The differences suggest that there is a substantial scope for mitigating the long-term production demand for crops and other phytomass by increases in efficiency and changes in dietary preferences.},
  language = {English},
  urldate = {2014-09-08},
  school = {Chalmers University of Technology},
  author = {Wirsenius, Stefan},
  year = {2000},
  keywords = {livestock, Diet, efficiency, biomass, Feed, global food system, industrial ecology, physical model},
}

@techreport{ipcc_2006_2006,
  address = {IGES, Japan},
  title = {2006 {IPCC} {Guidelines} for {National} {Greenhouse} {Gas} {Inventories}},
  institution = {National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme},
  author = {IPCC},
  editor = {Eggleston, H.S. and Buendia, L. and Miwa, K. and Ngara, T. and Tanabe, K.},
  year = {2006}
}

@misc{calvo_buendia_ipcc_2019,
  title = {{{IPCC}} 2019, 2019 {{Refinement}} to the 2006 {{IPCC Guidelines}} for {{National Greenhouse Gas Inventories}},},
  publisher = {Published: IPCC, Switzerland},
  year = {2019},
  editor = {E. {Calvo Buendia} and K. Tanabe and A. Kranjc and J. Baasansuren and M. Fukuda and S. Ngarize and A.Osako and Y. Pyrozhenko and P. Shermanau and S. Federici (eds)},
}

@article{lal_world_2005,
  title = {World crop residues production and implications of its use as a biofuel},
  volume = {31},
  issn = {0160-4120},
  doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2004.09.005},
  abstract = {Reducing and off-setting anthropogenic emissions of CO(2) and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) are important strategies of mitigating the greenhouse effect. Thus, the need for developing carbon (C) neutral and renewable sources of energy is more than ever before. Use of crop residue as a possible source of feedstock for bioenergy production must be critically and objectively assessed because of its positive impact on soil C sequestration, soil quality maintenance and ecosystem functions. The amount of crop residue produced in the US is estimated at 367x10(6) Mg/year for 9 cereal crops, 450x10(6) Mg/year for 14 cereals and legumes, and 488x10(6) Mg/year for 21 crops. The amount of crop residue produced in the world is estimated at 2802x10(6) Mg/year for cereal crops, 3107x10(6) Mg/year for 17 cereals and legumes, and 3758x10(6) Mg/year for 27 food crops. The fuel value of the total annual residue produced is estimated at 1.5x10(15) kcal, about 1 billion barrels (bbl) of diesel equivalent, or about 8 quads for the US; and 11.3x10(15) kcal, about 7.5 billion bbl of diesel or 60 quads for the world. However, even a partial removal (30-40\%) of crop residue from land can exacerbate soil erosion hazard, deplete the SOC pool, accentuate emission of CO(2) and other GHGs from soil to the atmosphere, and exacerbate the risks of global climate change. Therefore, establishing bioenergy plantations of site-specific species with potential of producing 10-15 Mg biomass/year is an option that needs to be considered. This option will require 40-60 million hectares of land in the US and about 250 million hectares worldwide to establish bioenergy plantations.},
  language = {eng},
  number = {4},
  journal = {Environment International},
  author = {Lal, R.},
  month = may,
  year = {2005},
  pmid = {15788197},
  keywords = {Agriculture, Bioelectric Energy Sources, Biomass, Carbon, Ecosystem, Greenhouse Effect, Plants, Edible, Refuse Disposal, Soil},
  pages = {575--584}
}

@article{feller_dungung_2007,
  title = {D\"ungung im {Freilandgem\"usebau}},
  language = {de},
  journal = {Schriftenreihe des Leibniz- Instituts f\"ur Gem\"use- und Zierpflanzenbau (IGZ)},
  author = {Feller, C. and Fink, M. and Laber, H. and Maync, A. and Paschold, P. and Scharpf, H. and Sclaghecken, J. and Strohmeyer, K. and Weier, U. and Ziegler, J.},
  year = {2007},
  pages = {265}
}

@article{smil_nitrogen_1999,
  title = {Nitrogen in crop production: {An} account of global flows},
  volume = {13},
  copyright = {Copyright 1999 by the American Geophysical Union.},
  issn = {1944-9224},
  shorttitle = {Nitrogen in crop production},
  url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/1999GB900015},
  doi = {10.1029/1999GB900015},
  abstract = {Human activities have roughly doubled the amount of reactive N that enters the element's biospheric cycle. Crop production is by far the single largest cause of this anthropogenic alteration. Inorganic fertilizers now provide 80 Tg N yr−1 (Tg = 1012 g), managed (symbiotic) biofixation adds about 20 Tg N yr−1, and between 28 and 36 Tg N yr−1 are recycled in organic wastes. Anthropogenic inputs (including N in seeds and irrigation water) now supply about 85\% of 170 (151–186) Tg N reaching the world's cropland every year. About half of this input, 85 Tg N yr−1, is taken up by harvested crops and their residues. Quantification of N losses from crop fields is beset by major uncertainties. Losses to the atmosphere (denitrification and volatilization) amount to 26–60 Tg N yr−1, while waters receive (from leaching and erosion) 32–45 Tg N yr−1. These N losses are the major reason behind the growing concerns about the enrichment of the biosphere with reactive N. The best evidence suggests that in spite of some significant local and regional losses, the world's agricultural land accumulates N. The addition of 3–4 billion people before the year 2050 will require further substantial increases of N input in cropping, but a large share of this demand can come from improved efficiency of N fertilizer use.},
  language = {en},
  number = {2},
  urldate = {2018-07-09},
  journal = {Global Biogeochemical Cycles},
  author = {Smil, Vaclav},
  year = {1999},
  pages = {647--662},
}

@article{sathaye_ghg_2005,
  title = {{GHG} {Mitigation} {Potential}, {Costs} and {Benefits} in {Global} {Forests}: {A} {Dynamic} {Partial} {Equilibrium} {Approach}},
  shorttitle = {{GHG} {Mitigation} {Potential}, {Costs} and {Benefits} in {Global} {Forests}},
  url = {http://escholarship.org/uc/item/92d5m16v},
  abstract = {This paper reports on the global potential for carbon sequestration in forest plantations, and the reduction of carbon emissions from deforestation, in response to six carbon price scenarios from 2000 to 2100. These carbon price scenarios cover a range typically seen in global integrated assessment models. The world forest sector was disaggregated into ten regions, four largely temperate, developed regions: the European Union, Oceania, Russia, and the United States; and six developing, mostly tropical, regions: Africa, Central America, China, India, Rest of Asia, and South America. Three mitigation options -- long- and short-rotation forestry, and the reduction of deforestation -- were analyzed using a global dynamic partial equilibrium model (GCOMAP). Key findings of this work are that cumulative carbon gain ranges from 50.9 to 113.2 Gt C by 2100, higher carbon prices early lead to earlier carbon gain and vice versa, and avoided deforestation accounts for 51 to 78 percent of modeled carbon gains by 2100. The estimated present value of cumulative welfare change in the sector ranges from a decline of \$158 billion to a gain of \$81 billion by 2100. The decline is associated with a decrease in deforestation.},
  urldate = {2013-03-06},
  journal = {Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory},
  author = {Sathaye, Jayant and Makundi, Willy and Dale, Larry and Chan, Peter and Andrasko, Kenneth},
  month = mar,
  year = {2005},
  keywords = {Environmental Energy Technologies, GCOMAP GHG mitigation global forests partial equilibrium model},
}

@article{robinson_mapping_2014,
  title = {Mapping the {Global} {Distribution} of {Livestock}},
  volume = {9},
  issn = {1932-6203},
  url = {http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0096084},
  doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0096084},
  number = {5},
  urldate = {2017-09-15},
  journal = {PLOS ONE},
  author = {Robinson, Timothy P. and Wint, G. R. William and Conchedda, Giulia and Boeckel, Thomas P. Van and Ercoli, Valentina and Palamara, Elisa and Cinardi, Giuseppina and D'Aietti, Laura and Hay, Simon I. and Gilbert, Marius},
  month = may,
  year = {2014},
  keywords = {Chicken models, Chickens, Ducks, Ecosystems, Forecasting, Livestock, Statistical distributions, Swine},
  pages = {e96084},
}

@article{pikaar_decoupling_2018,
  title = {Decoupling livestock from land use through industrial feed production pathways},
  volume = {52},
  number= {13},
  journal = {Environmental Science and Technology},
  author = {Pikaar, I. and Matassa, S. and Bodirsky, B. L. and Weindl, I. and Humpenöder, F. and Rabaey, K. and Boon, N. and Bruschi, M. and Yuan, Z. and Van Zanten, H. and Herrero, M. and Verstraete, W. and Popp, A.},
  month = {july},
  year = {2018},
  pages = {7351--7359},
  doi = {10.1021/acs.est.8b00216},
}

@techreport{valco_thecost_2016,
  title = {The Cost of Ginning Cotton - 2016 Survey Results},
  institution = {National Cotton Ginners Association},
  author = {Valco, T. D. and Ashley, H. and Findley, D. S. and Green, J. K. and Isom, R. A. and Price, T. L.},
  year = {2016},
}

@techreport{adanacioglu_profitability_2011,
  title = {Profitability and Efficiency in the Cotton Ginning Industry: A Case Study from the Aegean Region of Turkey},
  institution = {custoseagronegocioonline},
  author = {Adanacioglu, Hakan and Olgun, F. A.},
  year = {2011},
}

@article{braakhekke_modelling_2019,
  title = {Modelling forest plantations for carbon uptake with the {LPJmL} dynamic global vegetation model},
  issn = {2190-4979},
  url = {https://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/esd-2019-13/},
  doi = {https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-13},
  abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}{\textless}strong{\textgreater}Abstract.{\textless}/strong{\textgreater} We present an extension of the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL to simulate planted forests intended for C sequestration. We implemented three functional types to simulate plantation trees in temperate, tropical, and boreal climates. The parameters of these functional types were optimized to fit target growth curves (TGCs). These curves represent the evolution of stemwood C over time in typical productive plantations and were derived by combining field observations and LPJmL estimates for equivalent natural forests. While the calibrated model underestimates stemwood C growth rates compared to the TGCs, it represents substantial improvement over using natural forests to represent afforestation. Based on a simulation experiment in which we compared global natural forest versus global forest plantation, we found that forest plantations allow for much larger C uptake rates on the time scale of 100 years, with a maximum difference of a factor 1.9, around 54 years. In subsequent simulations for an ambitious but realistic scenario in which 650\ Mha (14\ \% of global managed land, 4.5\ \% of global land surface) is converted to forest over 85 years, we found that natural forests take up 37\ PgC versus 48\ PgC for forest plantations. Comparing these results to estimations of C sequestration required to achieve the 2\ \°C climate target, we conclude that afforestation can offer a substantial contribution to climate mitigation. Full evaluation of afforestation as a climate change mitigation strategy requires an integrated assessment which considers all relevant aspects, including costs, biodiversity, and trade-offs with other land-use types. Our extended version of LPJmL can contribute such an assessment by providing improved estimates of C uptake rates by forest plantations.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
  language = {English},
  urldate = {2019-04-16},
  journal = {Earth System Dynamics Discussions},
  author = {Braakhekke, Maarten C. and Doelman, Jonathan C. and Baas, Peter and Müller, Christoph and Schaphoff, Sibyll and Stehfest, Elke and Vuuren, Detlef P. van},
  month = apr,
  year = {2019},
  pages = {1--24},
}

@article{lauri_timber_demand,
  url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/112.00000504},
  year = {2019},
  volume = {34},
  journal = {Journal of Forest Economics},
  title = {Global Woody Biomass Harvest Volumes and Forest Area Use Under Different SSP-RCP Scenarios},
  doi = {10.1561/112.00000504},
  issn = {1104-6899},
  number = {3-4},
  pages = {285-309},
  author = {Pekka Lauri and Nicklas Forsell and Mykola Gusti and Anu Korosuo and Petr Havlík and Michael Obersteiner}
}

@article{morland2018supply,
  title = {Supply and demand functions for global wood markets: specification and plausibility testing of econometric models within the global forest sector},
  author = {Morland, Christian and Schier, Franziska and Janzen, Niels and Weimar, Holger},
  journal = {Forest Policy and Economics},
  volume = {92},
  pages = {92--105},
  year = {2018},
  publisher = {Elsevier}
}

@book{amacher2009economics,
  title = {Economics of forest resources},
  author = {Amacher, Gregory S and Ollikainen, Markku and Koskela, Erkki},
  year = {2009},
  publisher = {Mit Press Cambridge}
}

@article{Harmsen2019,
  title = {Long-term marginal abatement cost curves of non-{CO2} greenhouse gases},
  volume = {99},
  issn = {1462-9011},
  url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S146290111830889X},
  doi = {10.1016/j.envsci.2019.05.013},
  abstract = {This study presents a new comprehensive set of long-term Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) curves of all major non-CO2 greenhouse gas emission sources. The work builds on existing short-term MAC curve datasets and recent literature on individual mitigation measures. The new MAC curves include current technology and costs information as well as estimates of technology development and removal of implementation barriers to capture long-term dynamics. Compared to earlier work, we find a higher projected maximum reduction potential (MRP) of nitrous oxide (N2O) and a lower MRP of methane (CH4). The combined MRP for all non-CO2 gases is similar but has been extended to also capture mitigation measures that can be realized at higher implementation costs. When applying the new MAC curves in a cost-optimal, integrated assessment model-based 2.6 W/m2 scenario, the total non-CO2 mitigation is projected to be 10.9 Mt CO2 equivalents in 2050 (i.e. 58\% reduction compared to baseline emissions) and 15.6 Mt CO2equivalents in 2100 (i.e. a 71\% reduction). In applying the new MAC curves, we account for inertia in thline implementation speed of mitigation measures. Although this does not strongly impact results in an optimal strategy, it means that the contribution of non-CO2 mitigation could be more limited if ambitious climate policy is delayed.},
  urldate = {2019-09-13},
  journal = {Environmental Science \& Policy},
  author = {Harmsen, J. H. M. and van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Nayak, Dali R. and Hof, Andries F. and Höglund-Isaksson, Lena and Lucas, Paul L. and Nielsen, Jens B. and Smith, Pete and Stehfest, Elke},
  month = sep,
  year = {2019},
  keywords = {Climate policy, Mitigation, MAC curves, Non-CO},
  pages = {136--149},
}

@article{Lynch2020,
  title = {Demonstrating {GWP}*: a means of reporting warming-equivalent emissions that captures the contrasting impacts of short- and long-lived climate pollutants},
  volume = {15},
  issn = {1748-9326},
  shorttitle = {Demonstrating {GWP}{\textbackslash}ast},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088%2F1748-9326%2Fab6d7e},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab6d7e},
  abstract = {The atmospheric lifetime and radiative impacts of different climate pollutants can both differ markedly, so metrics that equate emissions using a single scaling factor, such as the 100-year Global Warming Potential (GWP100), can be misleading. An alternative approach is to report emissions as ‘warming-equivalents’ that result in similar warming impacts without requiring a like-for-like weighting per emission. GWP*, an alternative application of GWPs where the CO2-equivalence of short-lived climate pollutant emissions is predominantly determined by changes in their emission rate, provides a straightforward means of generating warming-equivalent emissions. In this letter we illustrate the contrasting climate impacts resulting from emissions of methane, a short-lived greenhouse gas, and CO2, and compare GWP100 and GWP* CO2-equivalents for a number of simple emissions scenarios. We demonstrate that GWP* provides a useful indication of warming, while conventional application of GWP100 falls short in many scenarios and particularly when methane emissions are stable or declining, with important implications for how we consider ‘zero emission’ or ‘climate neutral’ targets for sectors emitting different compositions of gases. We then illustrate how GWP* can provide an improved means of assessing alternative mitigation strategies. GWP* allows warming-equivalent emissions to be calculated directly from CO2-equivalent emissions reported using GWP100, consistent with the Paris Rulebook agreed by the UNFCCC, on condition that short-lived and cumulative climate pollutants are aggregated separately, which is essential for transparency. It provides a direct link between emissions and anticipated warming impacts, supporting stocktakes of progress towards a long-term temperature goal and compatible with cumulative emissions budgets.},
  language = {en},
  number = {4},
  urldate = {2020-11-20},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  author = {Lynch, John and Cain, Michelle and Pierrehumbert, Raymond and Allen, Myles},
  month = apr,
  year = {2020},
  note = {Publisher: IOP Publishing},
  pages = {044023},
}

@article{Allen_2018,
  title = {A solution to the misrepresentations of {CO2}-equivalent emissions of short-lived climate pollutants under ambitious mitigation},
  volume = {1},
  issn = {2397-3722},
  url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-018-0026-8},
  doi = {10.1038/s41612-018-0026-8},
  language = {en},
  number = {1},
  urldate = {2019-12-03},
  journal = {npj Climate and Atmospheric Science},
  author = {Allen, Myles R. and Shine, Keith P. and Fuglestvedt, Jan S. and Millar, Richard J. and Cain, Michelle and Frame, David J. and Macey, Adrian H.},
  month = dec,
  year = {2018},
  pages = {16},
}

@article{oswalt2019forest,
  title = {Forest resources of the United States, 2017: A technical document supporting the Forest Service 2020 RPA Assessment},
  author = {Oswalt, Sonja N and Smith, W Brad and Miles, Patrick D and Pugh, Scott A},
  journal = {Gen. Tech. Rep. WO-97. Washington, DC: US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Washington Office.},
  volume = {97},
  year = {2019}
}

@article{pokharel2017factors,
  title = {Factors affecting utilization of woody residues for bioenergy production in the southern United States},
  author = {Pokharel, Raju and Grala, Robert K and Grebner, Donald L and Grado, Stephen C},
  journal = {Biomass and Bioenergy},
  volume = {105},
  pages = {278--287},
  year = {2017},
  publisher = {Elsevier}
}

@article{poulter2018global,
  title = {The global forest age dataset (GFADv1. 0)},
  author = {Poulter, Benjamin and Arag{\~a}o, Luiz and Adela, N and Bellassen, Valentin and Ciais, Philippe and Kato, Tomomichi and Lin, Xin and Nachin, Baatarbileg and Luyssaert, Sebastiaan and Pederson, Niel and others},
  year = {2018},
  publisher = {NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration, PANGAEA}
}

@article{zabel_global_2014,
  title = {Global {{Agricultural Land Resources}} \textendash{} {{A High Resolution Suitability Evaluation}} and {{Its Perspectives}} until 2100 under {{Climate Change Conditions}}},
  author = {Zabel, Florian and Putzenlechner, Birgitta and Mauser, Wolfram},
  year = {2014},
  month = sep,
  volume = {9},
  pages = {e107522},
  publisher = {{Public Library of Science}},
  issn = {1932-6203},
  doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0107522},
  abstract = {Changing natural conditions determine the land's suitability for agriculture. The growing demand for food, feed, fiber and bioenergy increases pressure on land and causes trade-offs between different uses of land and ecosystem services. Accordingly, an inventory is required on the changing potentially suitable areas for agriculture under changing climate conditions. We applied a fuzzy logic approach to compute global agricultural suitability to grow the 16 most important food and energy crops according to the climatic, soil and topographic conditions at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds. We present our results for current climate conditions (1981\textendash 2010), considering today's irrigated areas and separately investigate the suitability of densely forested as well as protected areas, in order to investigate their potentials for agriculture. The impact of climate change under SRES A1B conditions, as simulated by the global climate model ECHAM5, on agricultural suitability is shown by comparing the time-period 2071\textendash 2100 with 1981\textendash 2010. Our results show that climate change will expand suitable cropland by additionally 5.6 million km2, particularly in the Northern high latitudes (mainly in Canada, China and Russia). Most sensitive regions with decreasing suitability are found in the Global South, mainly in tropical regions, where also the suitability for multiple cropping decreases.},
  journal = {PLOS ONE},
  keywords = {Agricultural irrigation,Agricultural land,Agricultural soil science,Agriculture,Climate change,Conservation science,Crops,Forests},
  language = {en},
  number = {9}
}

@article{Heinke.2013,
  author = {Heinke, J. and Ostberg, S. and Schaphoff, S. and Frieler, K. and M{\"u}ller, C. and Gerten, D. and Meinshausen, M. and Lucht, W.},
  year = {2013},
  title = {A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming},
  pages = {1689--1703},
  volume = {6},
  number = {5},
  journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
  doi = {10.5194/gmd-6-1689-2013},
}

@article{KleinGoldewijk.2017,
  abstract = {(Waridity)},
  author = {{Klein Goldewijk}, Kees and Beusen, Arthur and Doelman, Jonathan and Stehfest, Elke},
  year = {2017},
  title = {Anthropogenic land use estimates for the Holocene -- HYDE 3.2},
  pages = {927--953},
  volume = {9},
  number = {2},
  journal = {Earth System Science Data},
  doi = {10.5194/essd-9-927-2017},
}

@article{churkina2020buildings,
  title = {Buildings as a global carbon sink},
  author = {Churkina, Galina and Organschi, Alan and Reyer, Christopher PO and Ruff, Andrew and Vinke, Kira and Liu, Zhu and Reck, Barbara K and Graedel, TE and Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim},
  journal = {Nature Sustainability},
  volume = {3},
  number = {4},
  pages = {269--276},
  year = {2020},
  publisher = {Nature Publishing Group}
}

@misc{orlov_ces_2021,
  title = {{CES} production function in {GAMS} with climate change impacts on labor producitivy},
  url = {https://zenodo.org/record/4983177},
  abstract = {This is a conceptual GAMS model for including climate change impacts on labor producitivy into a neoclassical Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) or Cobb Douglas (CD) production function.},
  urldate = {2021-06-18},
  publisher = {Zenodo},
  author = {Orlov, Anton and Humpenöder, Florian},
  month = jun,
  year = {2021},
  doi = {10.5281/zenodo.4983177},
  note = {Language: eng},
  keywords = {CES production function, climate change impacts, GAMS, labor producitivy},
}

@article{orlov_labor_2021,
  title = {Global {Economic} {Responses} to {Heat} {Stress} {Impacts} on {Worker} {Productivity} in {Crop} {Production}},
  issn = {2511-1280, 2511-1299},
  url = {https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s41885-021-00091-6},
  doi = {10.1007/s41885-021-00091-6},
  abstract = {The impacts of climate change on the food system are a key concern for societies and policy makers globally. Assessments of the biophysical impacts of crop productivity show modest but uncertain impacts. But crop growth is not the only factor that matters for the food production. Climate impacts on the labour force through increased heat stress also need to be considered. Here, we provide projections for the integrated climate-induced impacts on crop yields and worker productivity on the agro-economy in a global multisector economic model. Biophysical impacts are derived from a multi-model ensemble, which is based on a combination of climate and crop models, and the economic analysis is conducted for different socio-economic pathways. This framework allows for a comprehensive assessment of biophysical and socio-economic risks, and outlines rapid risk increases for high-warming scenarios. Considering heat effects on labour productivity, regional production costs could increase by up to 10 percentage points or more in vulnerable tropical regions such as South and South-East Asia, and Africa. Heat stress effects on labour might offset potential benefits through productivity gains due to the carbon dioxide fertilisation effect. Agricultural adaptation through increased mechanisation might allow to alleviate some of the negative heat stress effects under optimistic scenarios of socio-economic development. Our results highlight the vulnerability of the food system to climate change impacts through multiple impact channels. Overall, we find a consistently negative impact of future climate change on crop production when accounting for worker productivity next to crop yields.},
  language = {en},
  urldate = {2021-08-18},
  journal = {Economics of Disasters and Climate Change},
  author = {Orlov, Anton and Daloz, Anne Sophie and Sillmann, Jana and Thiery, Wim and Douzal, Clara and Lejeune, Quentin and Schleussner, Carl},
  month = aug,
  year = {2021},
}

@techreport{leclere_biodiv_2018,
  type = {Other},
  title = {Towards pathways bending the curve terrestrial biodiversity trends within the 21st century},
  copyright = {cc\_by\_sa\_4},
  url = {http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15241/},
  abstract = {Unless actions are taken to reduce multiple anthropogenic pressures, biodiversity is expected to continue declining at an alarming rate. Models and scenarios can be used to help design the pathways to sustain a thriving nature and its ability to contribute to people. This approach has so far been hampered by the complexity associated with combining projections of pressures on, and subsequent responses from, biodiversity. Most previous assessments have projected continuous biodiversity declines and very few have identified pathways for reversing the loss of biodiversity without jeopardizing other objectives such as development or climate mitigation. The Bending The Curve initiative set out to advance quantitative modelling techniques towards ambitious scenarios for biodiversity. In this proof-of-concept analysis, we developed a modelling approach that demonstrates how global land use and biodiversity models can shed light on wedges able to bend the curve of biodiversity trends as affected by land-use change, the biggest current threat to biodiversity. In order to address the uncertainties associated with such pathways we used a multi-model framework and relied on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway/Representative Concentration Pathway scenario framework. This report describes the details of this modelling approach.},
  language = {en},
  urldate = {2018-10-17},
  author = {Leclere, D. and Obersteiner, M. and Alkemade, R. and Almond, R. and Barrett, M. and Bunting, G. and Burgess, N. and Butchart, S. and Chaudhary, A. and Cornell, S. and De Palma, A. and DeClerck, F. and Di Fulvio, F. and Di Marco, M. and Doelman, J. and Dürauer, M. and Ferrier, S. and Freeman, R. and Fritz, S. and Fujimori, S. and Grooten, M. and Harfoot, M. and Harwood, T. and Hasegawa, T. and Havlik, P. and Hellweg, S. and Herrero, M. and Hilbers, J. and Hill, S. and Hoskins, A. and Humpenöder, F. and Kram, T. and Krisztin, T. and Lotze-Campen, H. and Mace, G. and Matsui, T. and Meyer, C. and Nel, D. and Newbold, T. and Ohashi, H. and Popp, A. and Purvis, A. and Schipper, A. and Schmidt-Traub, G. and Stehfest, E. and Strassburg, B. and Tabeau, A. and Valin, H. and van Meijl, H. and van Vuuren, D. and van Zeist, W. and Visconti, P. and Ware, C. and Watson, J. and Wu, W. and Young, L.},
  month = may,
  year = {2018},
  doi = {10.22022/ESM/04-2018.15241},
}

@article{leclere_bending_2020,
  title = {Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy},
  volume = {585},
  copyright = {2020 The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited},
  issn = {1476-4687},
  url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2705-y},
  doi = {10.1038/s41586-020-2705-y},
  abstract = {Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it  provides1,2. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity3; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge4. Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether—and how—humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodiversity caused by habitat conversion, which is a major threat to biodiversity5. We show that immediate efforts, consistent with the broader sustainability agenda but of unprecedented ambition and coordination, could enable the provision of food for the growing human population while reversing the global terrestrial biodiversity trends caused by habitat conversion. If we decide to increase the extent of land under conservation management, restore degraded land and generalize landscape-level conservation planning, biodiversity trends from habitat conversion could become positive by the mid-twenty-first century on average across models (confidence interval, 2042–2061), but this was not the case for all models. Food prices could increase and, on average across models, almost half (confidence interval, 34–50\%) of the future biodiversity losses could not be avoided. However, additionally tackling the drivers of land-use change could avoid conflict with affordable food provision and reduces the environmental effects of the food-provision system. Through further sustainable intensification and trade, reduced food waste and more plant-based human diets, more than two thirds of future biodiversity losses are avoided and the biodiversity trends from habitat conversion are reversed by 2050 for almost all of the models. Although limiting further loss will remain challenging in several biodiversity-rich regions, and other threats—such as climate change—must be addressed to truly reverse the declines in biodiversity, our results show that ambitious conservation efforts and food system transformation are central to an effective post-2020 biodiversity strategy.},
  language = {en},
  number = {7826},
  urldate = {2020-10-12},
  journal = {Nature},
  author = {Leclère, David and Obersteiner, Michael and Barrett, Mike and Butchart, Stuart H. M. and Chaudhary, Abhishek and De Palma, Adriana and DeClerck, Fabrice A. J. and Di Marco, Moreno and Doelman, Jonathan C. and Dürauer, Martina and Freeman, Robin and Harfoot, Michael and Hasegawa, Tomoko and Hellweg, Stefanie and Hilbers, Jelle P. and Hill, Samantha L. L. and Humpenöder, Florian and Jennings, Nancy and Krisztin, Tamás and Mace, Georgina M. and Ohashi, Haruka and Popp, Alexander and Purvis, Andy and Schipper, Aafke M. and Tabeau, Andrzej and Valin, Hugo and van Meijl, Hans and van Zeist, Willem-Jan and Visconti, Piero and Alkemade, Rob and Almond, Rosamunde and Bunting, Gill and Burgess, Neil D. and Cornell, Sarah E. and Di Fulvio, Fulvio and Ferrier, Simon and Fritz, Steffen and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Grooten, Monique and Harwood, Thomas and Havlík, Petr and Herrero, Mario and Hoskins, Andrew J. and Jung, Martin and Kram, Tom and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Matsui, Tetsuya and Meyer, Carsten and Nel, Deon and Newbold, Tim and Schmidt-Traub, Guido and Stehfest, Elke and Strassburg, Bernardo B. N. and van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Ware, Chris and Watson, James E. M. and Wu, Wenchao and Young, Lucy},
  month = sep,
  year = {2020},
  note = {Number: 7826; Publisher: Nature Publishing Group},
  pages = {551--556},
}

@online{iucn_iucn_2020,
  title = {The {{IUCN Red List}} of {{Threatened Species}}},
  author = {{IUCN}},
  date = {2020},
  url = {https://www.iucnredlist.org},
  urldate = {2020-11-25}
}

@incollection{purvis_chapter_2018,
  title = {Chapter {{Five}} - {{Modelling}} and {{Projecting}} the {{Response}} of {{Local Terrestrial Biodiversity Worldwide}} to {{Land Use}} and {{Related Pressures}}: {{The PREDICTS Project}}},
  shorttitle = {Chapter {{Five}} - {{Modelling}} and {{Projecting}} the {{Response}} of {{Local Terrestrial Biodiversity Worldwide}} to {{Land Use}} and {{Related Pressures}}},
  booktitle = {Advances in {{Ecological Research}}},
  author = {Purvis, Andy and Newbold, Tim and De Palma, Adriana and Contu, Sara and Hill, Samantha L. L. and Sanchez-Ortiz, Katia and Phillips, Helen R. P. and Hudson, Lawrence N. and Lysenko, Igor and Börger, Luca and Scharlemann, Jörn P. W.},
  editor = {Bohan, David A. and Dumbrell, Alex J. and Woodward, Guy and Jackson, Michelle},
  date = {2018-01-01},
  series = {Next {{Generation Biomonitoring}}: {{Part}} 1},
  volume = {58},
  pages = {201--241},
  publisher = {{Academic Press}},
  doi = {10.1016/bs.aecr.2017.12.003},
  url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065250417300284},
  urldate = {2020-02-25},
  abstract = {The PREDICTS project (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) has collated ecological survey data from hundreds of published biodiversity comparisons of sites facing different land-use and related pressures, and used the resulting taxonomically and geographically broad database (abundance and occurrence data for over 50,000 species and over 30,000 sites in nearly 100 countries) to develop global biodiversity models, indicators, and projections. After outlining the science and science-policy gaps that motivated PREDICTS, this review discusses the key design decisions that helped it to achieve its objectives. In particular, we discuss basing models on a large, taxonomically, and geographically representative database, so that they may be applicable to biodiversity more broadly; space-for-time substitution, which allows estimation of pressure-state models without the need for representative time-series data; and collation of raw data rather than statistical results, greatly expanding the range of response variables that can be modelled. The heterogeneity of data in the PREDICTS database has presented a range of modelling challenges: we discuss these with a focus on our implementation of the Biodiversity Intactness Index, an indicator with considerable policy potential but which had not previously been estimated from primary biodiversity data. We then summarise the findings from analyses of how land use and related pressures affect local (α) diversity and spatial turnover (β diversity), and how these effects are mediated by ecological attributes of species. We discuss the relevance of our findings for policy, before ending with some directions of ongoing and possible future research.},
  langid = {english},
  keywords = {Alpha diversity,Beta diversity,Biodiversity indicators,Biodiversity intactness index,Biodiversity models,Hockey-stick graph,Meta-analysis,Representativeness},
}

@article{wilson_2016,
  title = {Greenhouse gas emission factors associated with rewetting of organic soils},
  volume = {17},
  issn = {1819-754X},
  url = {http://doi.org/10.19189/MaP.2016.OMB.222},
  doi = {10.19189/MaP.2016.OMB.222},
  abstract = {Drained organic soils are a significant source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to the atmosphere. Rewetting these soils may reduce GHG emissions and could also create suitable conditions for return of the carbon (C) sink function characteristic of undrained organic soils. In this article we expand on the work relating to rewetted organic soils that was carried out for the 2014 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Wetlands Supplement. We describe the methods and scientific approach used to derive the Tier 1 emission factors (the rate of emission per unit of activity) for the full suite of GHG and waterborne C fluxes associated with rewetting of organic soils. We recorded a total of 352 GHG and waterborne annual flux data points from an extensive literature search and these were disaggregated by flux type (i.e. CO2, CH4, N2O and DOC), climate zone and nutrient status. Our results showed fundamental differences between the GHG dynamics of drained and rewetted organic soils and, based on the 100 year global warming potential of each gas, indicated that rewetting of drained organic soils leads to: net annual removals of CO2 in the majority of organic soil classes; an increase in annual CH4 emissions; a decrease in N2O and DOC losses; and a lowering of net GHG emissions. Data published since the Wetlands Supplement (n = 58) generally support our derivations. Significant data gaps exist, particularly with regard to tropical organic soils, DOC and N2O. We propose that the uncertainty associated with our derivations could be significantly reduced by the development of country specific emission factors that could in turn be disaggregated by factors such as vegetation composition, water table level, time since rewetting and previous land use history.},
  language = {en},
  number = {4},
  urldate = {2019-04-29},
  journal = {Mires and Peat},
  author = {Wilson, D. and Blain, D. and Couwenberg, J.},
  month = apr,
  year = {2016},
  pages = {4 28 pp},
}

@article{brooks_global_2006,
  title = {Global {Biodiversity} {Conservation} {Priorities}},
  volume = {313},
  url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1127609},
  doi = {10.1126/science.1127609},
  number = {5783},
  urldate = {2022-05-18},
  journal = {Science},
  author = {Brooks, T. M. and Mittermeier, R. A. and da Fonseca, G. A. B. and Gerlach, J. and Hoffmann, M. and Lamoreux, J. F. and Mittermeier, C. G. and Pilgrim, J. D. and Rodrigues, A. S. L.},
  month = jul,
  year = {2006},
  note = {Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science},
  pages = {58--61},
}

@article{olson_biome_2001,
  title = {Terrestrial {Ecoregions} of the {World}: {A} {New} {Map} of {Life} on {Earth}: {A} new global map of terrestrial ecoregions provides an innovative tool for conserving biodiversity},
  volume = {51},
  issn = {0006-3568},
  shorttitle = {Terrestrial {Ecoregions} of the {World}},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1641/0006-3568(2001)051[0933:TEOTWA]2.0.CO;2},
  doi = {10.1641/0006-3568(2001)051[0933:TEOTWA]2.0.CO;2},
  number = {11},
  urldate = {2022-06-02},
  journal = {BioScience},
  author = {Olson, David M. and Dinerstein, Eric and Wikramanayake, Eric D. and Burgess, Neil D. and Powell, George V. N. and Underwood, Emma C. and D'amico, Jennifer A. and Itoua, Illanga and Strand, Holly E. and Morrison, John C. and Loucks, Colby J. and Allnutt, Thomas F. and Ricketts, Taylor H. and Kura, Yumiko and Lamoreux, John F. and Wettengel, Wesley W. and Hedao, Prashant and Kassem, Kenneth R.},
  month = nov,
  year = {2001},
  pages = {933--938},
}


@article{tiemeyer_peatland_2020,
    title = {A new methodology for organic soils in national greenhouse gas inventories: {Data} synthesis, derivation and application},
    volume = {109},
    issn = {1470160X},
    shorttitle = {A new methodology for organic soils in national greenhouse gas inventories},
    url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1470160X19308325},
    doi = {10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.105838},
    abstract = {Drained organic soils are large sources of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) in many European and Asian countries. Therefore, these soils urgently need to be considered and adequately accounted for when attempting to decrease emissions from the Agriculture and Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sectors. Here, we describe the methodology, data and results of the German approach for measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) of anthropogenic GHG emissions from drained organic soils and outline ways forward towards tracking drainage and rewetting. The methodology was developed for and is currently applied in the German GHG inventory under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol.},
    language = {en},
    urldate = {2023-06-19},
    journal = {Ecological Indicators},
    author = {Tiemeyer, Bärbel and Freibauer, Annette and Borraz, Elisa Albiac and Augustin, Jürgen and Bechtold, Michel and Beetz, Sascha and Beyer, Colja and Ebli, Martin and Eickenscheidt, Tim and Fiedler, Sabine and Förster, Christoph and Gensior, Andreas and Giebels, Michael and Glatzel, Stephan and Heinichen, Jan and Hoffmann, Mathias and Höper, Heinrich and Jurasinski, Gerald and Laggner, Andreas and Leiber-Sauheitl, Katharina and Peichl-Brak, Mandy and Drösler, Matthias},
    month = feb,
    year = {2020},
    pages = {105838},
}


@article{humpenoeder_overcoming_2022,
    title = {Overcoming global inequality is critical for land-based mitigation in line with the {Paris} {Agreement}},
    volume = {13},
    copyright = {2022 The Author(s)},
    issn = {2041-1723},
    url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-35114-7},
    doi = {10.1038/s41467-022-35114-7},
    abstract = {Transformation pathways for the land sector in line with the Paris Agreement depend on the assumption of globally implemented greenhouse gas (GHG) emission pricing, and in some cases also on inclusive socio-economic development and sustainable land-use practices. In such pathways, the majority of GHG emission reductions in the land system is expected to come from low- and middle-income countries, which currently account for a large share of emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU). However, in low- and middle-income countries the economic, financial and institutional barriers for such transformative changes are high. Here, we show that if sustainable development in the land sector remained highly unequal and limited to high-income countries only, global AFOLU emissions would remain substantial throughout the 21st century. Our model-based projections highlight that overcoming global inequality is critical for land-based mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement. While also a scenario purely based on either global GHG emission pricing or on inclusive socio-economic development would achieve the stringent emissions reductions required, only the latter ensures major co-benefits for other Sustainable Development Goals, especially in low- and middle-income regions.},
    language = {en},
    number = {1},
    urldate = {2022-12-02},
    journal = {Nature Communications},
    author = {Humpenöder, Florian and Popp, Alexander and Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich and Orlov, Anton and Windisch, Michael Gregory and Menke, Inga and Pongratz, Julia and Havermann, Felix and Thiery, Wim and Luo, Fei and v. Jeetze, Patrick and Dietrich, Jan Philipp and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Weindl, Isabelle and Lejeune, Quentin},
    month = dec,
    year = {2022},
    note = {Number: 1
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group},
    keywords = {Sustainability, Climate-change policy, Climate-change mitigation, Socioeconomic scenarios},
    pages = {7453},
}


@article{mishra_forestry_2021,
    title = {Estimating global land system impacts of timber plantations using {MAgPIE} 4.3.5},
    volume = {14},
    copyright = {All rights reserved},
    issn = {1991-959X},
    url = {https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/14/6467/2021/},
    doi = {10.5194/gmd-14-6467-2021},
    abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}{\textless}strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor"{\textgreater}Abstract.{\textless}/strong{\textgreater} Out of 1150 {\textless}span class="inline-formula"{\textgreater}Mha{\textless}/span{\textgreater} (million hectares) of forest designated primarily for production purposes in 2020, plantations accounted for 11 \% (131 {\textless}span class="inline-formula"{\textgreater}Mha{\textless}/span{\textgreater}) of this area and fulfilled more than 33 \% of the global industrial roundwood demand. However, adding additional timber plantations to meet increasing timber demand intensifies competition for scarce land resources between different land uses such as food, feed, livestock and timber production. Despite the significance of plantations with respect to roundwood production, their importance in meeting the long-term timber demand and the implications of plantation expansion for overall land-use dynamics have not been studied in detail, in particular regarding the competition for land between agriculture and forestry in existing land-use models.{\textless}/p{\textgreater} {\textless}p{\textgreater}This paper describes the extension of the modular, open-source land system Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment (MAgPIE) using a detailed representation of forest land, timber production and timber demand dynamics. These extensions allow for a better understanding of the land-use dynamics (including competition for land) and the associated land-use change emissions of timber production.{\textless}/p{\textgreater} {\textless}p{\textgreater}We show that the spatial cropland patterns differ when timber production is accounted for, indicating that timber plantations compete with cropland for the same scarce land resources. When plantations are established on cropland, it causes cropland expansion and deforestation elsewhere. Using the exogenous extrapolation of historical roundwood production from plantations, future timber demand and plantation rotation lengths, we model the future spatial expansion of forest plantations. As a result of increasing timber demand, we show a 177 \% increase in plantation area by the end of the century ({\textless}span class="inline-formula"{\textgreater}+{\textless}/span{\textgreater}171 {\textless}span class="inline-formula"{\textgreater}Mha{\textless}/span{\textgreater} in 1995–2100). We also observe (in our model results) that the increasing demand for timber amplifies the scarcity of land, which is indicated by shifting agricultural land-use patterns and increasing yields from cropland compared with a case without forestry. Through the inclusion of new forest plantation and natural forest dynamics, our estimates of land-related {\textless}span class="inline-formula"{\textgreater}CO$_{\textrm{2}}${\textless}/span{\textgreater} emissions better match with observed data, in particular the gross land-use change emissions and carbon uptake (via regrowth), reflecting higher deforestation with the expansion of managed land and timber production as well as higher regrowth in natural forests and plantations.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
    language = {English},
    number = {10},
    urldate = {2021-10-27},
    journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
    author = {Mishra, Abhijeet and Humpenöder, Florian and Dietrich, Jan Philipp and Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon and Sohngen, Brent and P. O. Reyer, Christopher and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Popp, Alexander},
    month = oct,
    year = {2021},
    note = {Publisher: Copernicus GmbH},
    pages = {6467--6494},
}


@article{mishra_timbercities_2022,
    title = {Land use change and carbon emissions of a transformation to timber cities},
    volume = {13},
    copyright = {2022 The Author(s)},
    issn = {2041-1723},
    url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-32244-w},
    doi = {10.1038/s41467-022-32244-w},
    abstract = {Using engineered wood for construction has been discussed for climate change mitigation. It remains unclear where and in which way the additional demand for wooden construction material shall be fulfilled. Here we assess the global and regional impacts of increased demand for engineered wood on land use and associated CO2 emissions until 2100 using an open-source land system model. We show that if 90\% of the new urban population would be housed in newly built urban mid-rise buildings with wooden constructions, 106 Gt of additional CO2 could be saved by 2100. Forest plantations would need to expand by up to 149 Mha by 2100 and harvests from unprotected natural forests would increase. Our results indicate that expansion of timber plantations for wooden buildings is possible without major repercussions on agricultural production. Strong governance and careful planning are required to ensure a sustainable transition to timber cities even if frontier forests and biodiversity hotspots are protected.},
    language = {en},
    number = {1},
    urldate = {2022-08-30},
    journal = {Nature Communications},
    author = {Mishra, Abhijeet and Humpenöder, Florian and Churkina, Galina and Reyer, Christopher P. O. and Beier, Felicitas and Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon and Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Popp, Alexander},
    month = aug,
    year = {2022},
    note = {Number: 1
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group},
    keywords = {Forestry, Climate-change mitigation},
    pages = {4889},
}