diff --git a/episodes/introduction.Rmd b/episodes/introduction.Rmd new file mode 100644 index 00000000..78a47980 --- /dev/null +++ b/episodes/introduction.Rmd @@ -0,0 +1,140 @@ +--- +title: 'Introduction' +teaching: 10 +exercises: 2 +editor_options: + chunk_output_type: console +--- + +:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: questions + +- Why to use R packages for Outbreak analytics? +- What can we do to analyse our outbreak data? +- How can I start doing Outbreak analytics with R? + +:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: + +::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: objectives + +- Explain our vision on the need to outbreak analytics R packages. +- Share our strategy to incorporate R packages into an outbreak analytics pipeline. +- Define our plan to incorporate practical solutions and theoretical concepts on outbreak analytics. + +:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: + +::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: prereq + +## Prerequisites + +List (and hyperlink) the lessons/packages which need to be covered before this lesson + +```r +install_version( + package = "EpiNow2", version = "1.4.0", + repos = "http://cran.us.r-project.org" +) +``` + +::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: + + +## Introduction + +_write about the Reproduction number (in a motivational way)_ + +Packages are handy tools to reuse code, maintenance, less error prone data analysis steps. + +The `{EpiNow2}` provide us with a a three-steps solution for this task! + +```{r,warning=FALSE} +library(EpiNow2) +``` + + +## First, get your data + +A data frame of observation + +```{r} +example_confirmed +``` + +## Then, set the parameters + +```{r} +incubation_period_fixed <- dist_spec( + mean = 4, sd = 2, + max = 20, distribution = "gamma" +) + +reporting_delay_fixed <- dist_spec( + mean = convert_to_logmean(2, 1), + sd = convert_to_logsd(2, 1), + max = 10, distribution = "lognormal" +) + +generation_time_fixed <- dist_spec( + mean = 3.6, sd = 3.1, + max = 20, distribution = "lognormal" +) +``` + +## Let's calculate R! + +```{r,echo=FALSE} +setup_default_logging(logs = NULL) +``` + +```{r,message=FALSE,warning=FALSE} +epinow_estimates <- epinow( + # cases + reported_cases = example_confirmed[1:60], + # delays + generation_time = generation_time_opts(generation_time_fixed), + delays = delay_opts(incubation_period_fixed + reporting_delay_fixed), + # computation options + stan = stan_opts(cores = 4, samples = 10, chains = 2, + control = list(adapt_delta = 0.99)), + verbose = interactive() +) +``` + +```{r} +base::plot(epinow_estimates) +``` + + +## The problem! + +However, doing this in real life is not as easy as this example! + +Data analysis involves dealing with inputs problems. + +- Read your linelist +- Clean your linelist +- Validate your linelist +- Read parameters from literature + +Also you can usethis R outputs as inputs for other tasks. + +- Forecast cases +- Estimate severity +- Simulate transmission scenarios +- Compare interventions + +At Epiverse-TRACE we are creating packages that complement the current landscape filling gaps of epi-specific challenges in response to outbreaks. + +## How to? + +In first set of episodes we are going to deal with each of these task previous to the _Quantify transmission_ task. These preliminary task are the __Early tasks__. Then we are going to get deeper into the _Quantify transmission_ task, which is within the __Middle tasks__, and later ones in the pipeline called and __Late tasks__. + +![An overview of the tutorial task to cover.](https://epiverse-trace.github.io/task_pipeline-minimal.svg) + +::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: keypoints + +- Our vision is to have pipelines of R packages for outbreak analytics. +- Our strategy is to create interconnected tasks to get public health relevant outputs. +- Our plan is to introduce about package solutions and theory bits for each of the tasks in the outbreak analytics pipeline. + +:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: +