The most recent forecasts (from 27 November 2021) cover the following locations: Belgium (BE), Czechia (CZ), Denmark (DK), Estonia (EE), France (FR), Greece (GR), Iceland (IS), Ireland (IE), Latvia (LV), Malta (MT), Netherlands (NL), Norway (NO), Slovenia (SI), United Kingdom (GB).
A mean ensemble of three autoregressive time series models: ARIMA, ETS and a “naive” model (where future admissions are equal to the most-recently observed admissions). Each of the three time series models are fit independently to weekly incident admissions data. The mean-ensemble quantile forecast is made by taking the mean of the three quantile forecasts.
A regression model with ARIMA errors, with 1-week lagged COVID-19 cases as a predictor. The model is fit with weekly admissions/cases data. To make forecasts of future admissions for a forecast horizon of two weeks or more, we use the ECDC Hub ensemble case forecast.
A convolution of COVID-19 cases and a report-to-admission delay distribution. The model is fit with weekly admissions/cases data. To make forecasts of future admissions, we use the ECDC Hub ensemble case forecast.