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Prediction Model Improvement #139

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antonydandrea opened this issue Jun 8, 2020 · 2 comments
Open

Prediction Model Improvement #139

antonydandrea opened this issue Jun 8, 2020 · 2 comments
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enhancement New feature or request

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@antonydandrea
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Is your feature request related to a problem? Please describe.
Just an improvement to the prediction model. Usually, Decreasing and High Spike follow the same pattern until late into the week, then one skyrockets and the other continues.

But I think that if the Guaranteed Min is hit early, say on Monday, then it will ultimately be Decreasing. It is not clear if Guaranteed Min can be hit more than once.

There are other cases too where if you have not hit Guaranteed Min yet later in the week, then the odds of the increase should be a lot higher.

Describe the solution you'd like
Update the modelling to take into account Guaranteed Min.

@antonydandrea antonydandrea added the enhancement New feature or request label Jun 8, 2020
@elxris
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elxris commented Jun 9, 2020

The problem here is the code that generates decreasing pattern and high spike (decreasing part) is practically the same. And no one can tell them apart.
I can't think a way to make the Guaranteed Min value better because effectively, on a decreasing pattern, Monday AM is the best and Guaranteed Min.

@tairosonloa
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Maybe adding a new input for introducing the last week pattern will help? I saw it in other calculators like:
https://artem6.github.io/acnh_turnips/?locale=en
https://turnipprophet.io/index.html

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