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Towards a predictive model of species interaction betadiversity

MS submitted to Ecology Letters in the “Perspective” category.

Catherine H. Graham1^* and Ben G. Weinstein2^

1 Swiss Federal Research Institute (WSL), Birmensdorf, Zurich. [email protected]

2 Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Marine Mammal Institute, Oregon State University, 2030 Marine Science Drive, Newport, OR 97365, USA. [email protected]

*Corresponding author ^ authors contributed equally to this work.

ABSTRACT

Species interactions are fundamental to community dynamics and ecosystem processes. Despite significant progress in describing the connections among species, we lack a comprehensive view of when interactions should change across time and space. By focusing on interaction beta-diversity, which considers both spatial and temporal species turnover and the change in the intensity of interactions, we can connect changes in local interactions with regional biodiversity. Here we discuss the biological insights and methodological concepts surrounding interaction beta-diversity, as well as outline a Bayesian approach to predicting species interaction intensity based on the biotic and abiotic environment. Integrating statistical models of local interactions with biogeographic and evolutionary histories of co-occurring species will provide new insight into the mechanisms that drive variation in patterns of biodiversity.

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