MCM 2017
2017 MCM Problem A: Managing The Zambezi River
The Kariba Dam on the Zambezi River is one of the larger dams in Africa. Its construction was controversial, and a 2015 report by the Institute of Risk Management of South Africa included a warning that the dam is in dire need of maintenance. A number of options are available to the Zambezi River Authority (ZRA) that might address the situation. Three options in particular are of interest to ZRA:
(Option 1) Repairing the existing Kariba Dam,
(Option 2) Rebuilding the existing Kariba Dam, or
(Option 3) Removing the Kariba Dam and replacing it with a series of ten to twenty smaller dams along the Zambezi River.
There are two main requirements for this problem:
Requirement 1 ZRA management requires a brief assessment of the three options listed, with sufficient detail to provide an overview of potential costs and benefits associated with each option. This requirement should not exceed two pages in length, and must be provided in addition to your main report.
Requirement 2 Provide a detailed analysis of Option (3) - removing the Kariba Dam and replacing it with a series of ten to twenty smaller dams along the Zambezi river. This new system of dams should have the same overall water management capabilities as the existing Kariba Dam while providing the same or greater levels of protection and water management options for Lake Kariba that are in place with the existing dam. Your analysis must support a recommendation as to the number and placement of the new dams along the Zambezi River.
In your report for Requirement 2, you should include a strategy for modulating the water flow through your new multiple dam system that provides a reasonable balance between safety and costs. In addition to addressing known or predicted normal water cycles, your strategy should provide guidance to the ZRA managers that explains and justifies the actions that should be taken to properly handle emergency water flow situations (i.e. flooding and/or prolonged low water conditions). Your strategy should provide specific guidance for extreme water flows ranging from maximum expected discharges to minimum expected discharges. Finally, your recommended strategy should include information addressing any restrictions regarding the locations and lengths of time that different areas of the Zambezi River should be exposed to the most detrimental effects of the extreme conditions.
Translation：
赞比西河上的卡里巴水坝是非洲较大的水坝之一。它的建设是有争议的，南非风险管理研究所的2015年报告包括一个警告-大坝是急需维护。赞比西河管理局（ZRA）可提供若干选择，以解决这一问题。 ZRA特别感兴趣的有三个选项：
这个问题有两个主要要求：
要求2对选项（3）进行详细分析 - 删除Kariba水坝，并用赞比西河沿岸一系列十至二十个较小的水坝替代。这个新的水坝系统应该与现有的Kariba水坝具有相同的整体水管理能力，同时为现有的水坝提供与卡里巴湖相同或更高水平的保护和水管理选择。您的分析必须支持关于沿赞比西河新坝的数量和位置的建议。
在您的要求2报告中，您应该包括一个策略，用于调节通过您的新多坝系统的水流，从而在安全和成本之间提供合理的平衡。除了解决已知或预测的正常水循环，您的战略应为ZRA经理提供指导，解释和证明应当采取的行动，以正确处理应急水流情况（即洪水和/或长期低水位状况）。您的策略应为从最大预期排放到最小预期排放的极端水流提供具体指导。最后，您的建议战略应包括解决对赞比西河不同地区暴露于极端条件最有害影响的位置和时间长度的任何限制的信息。
####参考论文 [非洲水资源及利用现状_李淑芹.pdf](https://share.weiyun.com/25bfbf1b2b2759fc3c3f4c4652c55ad0) [赞比西河流域水库实施环境适应性管理.pdf](https://share.weiyun.com/7725a34960ad9e7cf1f0e9a5f66dd45b)
####个人思路 仅供参考 a warning that the dam is in dire need of maintenance 考虑到题目说明是需要maintenance，保养，那么成本consideration 是一定的。 其实题目已经给了我们一些参考信息，给出了三种可行的方案。我们要做的，就是评估，预测成本和收益的关系，那么答案自然而出。
- 构建Cost-benefit Prediction model 成本效益预测模型
- 考虑 k-NN ，或者Random forest
#### 关于 water management _providing the same or greater levels of protection and water management options _ [RIVER WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT USING MATHEMATICal modelling.pdf](https://share.weiyun.com/8636fd1de11beae42eed6003c25da6a7)   
大概的输出类似下图，需要做一定的研究与分析：
