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Elective Recovery Model.stmx
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Elective Recovery Model.stmx
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<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?>
<xmile version="1.0" xmlns="http://docs.oasis-open.org/xmile/ns/XMILE/v1.0" xmlns:isee="http://iseesystems.com/XMILE">
<header>
<smile version="1.0" namespace="std, isee" uses_arrays="1" uses_conveyor=""/>
<name>Elective Recovery Model</name>
<uuid>56e48884-18a4-40f7-9600-7e57f8739fd9</uuid>
<vendor>isee systems, inc.</vendor>
<product version="2.1.5" isee:build_number="2629" isee:saved_by_v1="true" lang="en">Stella Architect</product>
</header>
<sim_specs isee:sim_duration="1.5" isee:simulation_delay="0.00288462" isee:restore_on_start="false" method="Euler" time_units="Weeks" isee:instantaneous_flows="false" isee:loop_scores="true" isee:loop_exhaustive_allowed="1000">
<start>0</start>
<stop>520</stop>
<dt reciprocal="true">4</dt>
</sim_specs>
<dimensions>
<dim name="Waiting_time">
<elem name="Less_than_6mths"/>
<elem name="Between_6_to_12mths"/>
<elem name="Between_12_to_24mths"/>
<elem name="Over_24mths"/>
</dim>
</dimensions>
<isee:prefs show_module_prefix="true" live_update_on_drag="true" show_restore_buttons="false" layer="model" interface_scale_ui="true" interface_max_page_width="10000" interface_max_page_height="10000" interface_min_page_width="0" interface_min_page_height="0" rerun_on_structure_change="false" saved_runs="5" keep="false" rifp="true"/>
<isee:multiplayer_settings include_chat="true" allow_observers="false" advance_time_increment="1" max_advance_time_in_ms="0" observer_start_page="home_page" enabled="false"/>
<isee:time_formats default_format="TimeLabel1">
<isee:time_format name="Builtin" type="adaptive"/>
<isee:time_format name="TimeLabel1" type="grouped" start_offset="2020" start_offset_units="years">
<isee:time_format_groupings>
<isee:time_format_grouping unit="years" prefix="Apr "/>
</isee:time_format_groupings>
</isee:time_format>
</isee:time_formats>
<default_format/>
<model_units/>
<model>
<variables>
<flow name="Incidence of condition">
<eqn>Expected_population_rate_of_incidence_pw+((Underlying_trend_in_health_needs-1)*Underlying_trend_in_health_needs*Switch_for_demographic_increase)</eqn>
<non_negative/>
</flow>
<aux name="Expected population rate of incidence pw">
<eqn>100</eqn>
</aux>
<stock name="Recognised need for GP consultation">
<eqn>0</eqn>
<inflow>Incidence_of_condition</inflow>
<outflow>Decision_not_to_present</outflow>
<outflow>Need_presenting_as_usual</outflow>
<non_negative/>
</stock>
<aux name="COVID period">
<eqn>TIME</eqn>
<gf>
<xscale min="0" max="520.000000000002"/>
<yscale min="0" max="100"/>
<ypts>0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0</ypts>
</gf>
</aux>
<stock name="Holding stock of potential unmet need">
<eqn>0</eqn>
<inflow>Decision_not_to_present</inflow>
<outflow>Holding_stock_released_at_end_of_COVID</outflow>
<non_negative/>
</stock>
<flow name="Decision not to present">
<eqn>(Incidence_of_condition*(Percent_people_not_presenting_during_COVID/100)*(COVID_period/100))*COVID_switch</eqn>
<non_negative/>
</flow>
<stock name="Outcome of consultation">
<eqn>0</eqn>
<inflow>Need_presenting_as_usual</inflow>
<outflow>Proceeding_to_tests_without_COVID_delay</outflow>
<outflow>NFA_following_initial_consultation</outflow>
<non_negative/>
</stock>
<flow name="Holding stock released at end of COVID">
<eqn>Holding_stock_of_potential_unmet_need*(1-(COVID_period/100))</eqn>
<non_negative/>
</flow>
<flow name="Need presenting as usual">
<eqn>Incidence_of_condition-Decision_not_to_present</eqn>
<non_negative/>
</flow>
<aux name="Percent people not\npresenting during COVID">
<eqn>50</eqn>
</aux>
<aux name="Underlying trend in health needs">
<eqn>TIME</eqn>
<gf>
<xscale min="0" max="520.000000000002"/>
<yscale min="1" max="1.2"/>
<ypts>1,1,1,1.0021,1.0043,1.0064,1.0085,1.0096,1.0117,1.0128,1.0149,1.016,1.0191,1.0202,1.0223,1.0255,1.02605,1.0287,1.0298,1.033,1.0335,1.0351,1.0362,1.0394,1.0404,1.0415,1.0447,1.0457,1.0479,1.0489,1.05,1.0511,1.0543,1.0553,1.0574,1.0585,1.0596,1.0617,1.0628,1.0638,1.0649,1.067,1.06755,1.0691,1.0702,1.0713,1.0723,1.0745,1.0766,1.07765,1.0787,1.0809,1.083,1.0835,1.0862,1.0872,1.0894,1.0915,1.09255,1.0936,1.0947,1.0968,1.0989,1.1011,1.1021,1.1032,1.1053,1.1064,1.1085,1.1096,1.1117,1.11225,1.1138,1.1149,1.1181,1.1191,1.1202,1.1223,1.12285,1.1255,1.1277,1.1287,1.1298,1.1309,1.133,1.1351,1.1372,1.1388,1.1404,1.1426,1.1447,1.14575,1.1468,1.1489,1.1511,1.1543,1.15535,1.1574,1.1585,1.1596,1.1617,1.1628,1.1649,1.166,1.1681,1.1691,1.1734,1.17395,1.1766,1.17715,1.1787,1.1809,1.1819,1.183,1.1851,1.1862,1.1872,1.1883,1.1894,1.1915,1.1957</ypts>
</gf>
</aux>
<aux name="Period of return in wks">
<eqn>156</eqn>
</aux>
<flow name="Proceeding to tests without COVID delay">
<eqn>Need_presenting_as_usual-NFA_following_initial_consultation</eqn>
<non_negative/>
</flow>
<aux name="Percent of need\nreferred for diagnostics">
<eqn>80</eqn>
</aux>
<stock name="Waiting for diagnostics">
<eqn>Proceeding_to_tests_without_COVID_delay*Average_pre_COVID_wait_for_diagnostics</eqn>
<inflow>Proceeding_to_tests_without_COVID_delay</inflow>
<inflow>Delayed_demand_to_wait_for_diagnostics</inflow>
<outflow>Undergoing_diagnostic_tests</outflow>
<non_negative/>
</stock>
<aux name="Net COVID induced changes in underlying health needs?">
<eqn>TIME</eqn>
<gf>
<xscale min="0" max="520.000000000002"/>
<yscale min="1" max="1.2"/>
<ypts>0,1,1,1,1,1.0011,1.0021,1.0032,1.0043,1.0043,1.0053,1.0064,1.0074,1.0074,1.0085,1.0096,1.0096,1.0106,1.01115,1.0128,1.0128,1.0138,1.0138,1.0149,1.0149,1.016,1.017,1.017,1.0181,1.0181,1.0181,1.0191,1.0202,1.0202,1.0213,1.0213,1.0223,1.0234,1.0234,1.0245,1.0245,1.0245,1.0255,1.0255,1.0266,1.0277,1.0287,1.0287,1.0298,1.0298,1.0309,1.0314,1.0319,1.033,1.033,1.034,1.034,1.0351,1.0362,1.0362,1.0362,1.0372,1.0383,1.0383,1.0383,1.0394,1.0404,1.04095,1.0415,1.04205,1.0426,1.0431,1.0436,1.04415,1.0447,1.0457,1.0468,1.0479,1.0484,1.0489,1.0489,1.05,1.05055,1.0511,1.0521,1.0532,1.0543,1.0553,1.0553,1.05585,1.0564,1.0574,1.0585,1.0596,1.0596,1.0617,1.0617,1.0628,1.0628,1.0638,1.0649,1.0649,1.066,1.066,1.067,1.067,1.0681,1.0681,1.0681,1.0691,1.0691,1.0691,1.0702,1.0702,1.0702,1.0713,1.0718,1.0723,1.0723,1.0734,1.0755</ypts>
</gf>
</aux>
<flow name="NFA following initial consultation">
<eqn>Need_presenting_as_usual*(Percent_of_need_referred_for_diagnostics/100)</eqn>
<non_negative/>
</flow>
<flow name="Undergoing diagnostic tests">
<eqn>(Pre_COVID_capacity_for_diagnostics*(1-(COVID_period/100)*(Reduced_diagnostic_capacity_during_COVID/100)*COVID_switch))+((((Percent_increase_in_diagnostic_capacity_post_COVID/100)*COVID_switch)*Pre_COVID_capacity_for_diagnostics)*(Timing_of_new_diagnostic_capacity/100))</eqn>
<non_negative/>
</flow>
<aux name="Pre COVID capacity for diagnostics">
<eqn>20</eqn>
</aux>
<aux name="Percent of unmet\nneed returning">
<eqn>50</eqn>
</aux>
<stock name="Depleting stock of\nunmet need">
<eqn>0</eqn>
<inflow>Holding_stock_released_at_end_of_COVID</inflow>
<outflow>Delayed_need_not_presenting</outflow>
<outflow>COVID_delayed_need_presenting</outflow>
<conveyor>
<len>Period_of_return_in_wks</len>
</conveyor>
</stock>
<flow name="Delayed need\nnot presenting">
<eqn>0</eqn>
<non_negative/>
</flow>
<flow name="COVID delayed need\npresenting">
<eqn>Percent_of_unmet_need_returning/100</eqn>
<non_negative/>
<leak/>
</flow>
<stock name="Outcome of consultation for delayed demand">
<eqn>0</eqn>
<inflow>COVID_delayed_need_presenting</inflow>
<outflow>Delayed_demand_to_wait_for_diagnostics</outflow>
<outflow>NFA_following_initial_consultation_for_COVID_delayed_need</outflow>
<non_negative/>
</stock>
<aux name="Increased percent of need\nfor diagnostics for\nCOVID delayed demand">
<eqn>10</eqn>
</aux>
<flow name="Delayed demand to wait for diagnostics">
<eqn>COVID_delayed_need_presenting*((Percent_of_need_referred_for_diagnostics+Increased_percent_of_need_for_diagnostics_for_COVID_delayed_demand)/100)</eqn>
<non_negative/>
</flow>
<flow name="NFA following initial\nconsultation\nfor COVID delayed need">
<eqn>COVID_delayed_need_presenting-Delayed_demand_to_wait_for_diagnostics</eqn>
<non_negative/>
</flow>
<aux name="Average pre COVID wait for diagnostics">
<eqn>13</eqn>
</aux>
<aux name="Reduced diagnostic capacity during COVID">
<eqn>70</eqn>
</aux>
<aux name="Average wait for diagnostic test">
<eqn>Waiting_for_diagnostics/Undergoing_diagnostic_tests</eqn>
</aux>
<aux name="Percent increase in\ndiagnostic capacity post COVID">
<eqn>30</eqn>
</aux>
<aux name="Timing of new diagnostic capacity">
<eqn>TIME</eqn>
<gf>
<xscale min="0" max="520.000000000002"/>
<yscale min="0" max="100"/>
<ypts>0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,5,12,18.6,39.9,58,66.5,70.2,78.7,84,92,95.7,96.8,97.9,98.4,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100,100</ypts>
</gf>
</aux>
<stock name="Test results">
<eqn>0</eqn>
<inflow>Undergoing_diagnostic_tests</inflow>
<outflow>Positive_test_results_urgent</outflow>
<outflow>Negative_test_results</outflow>
<outflow>Positive_test_results_routine</outflow>
<non_negative/>
</stock>
<flow name="Positive test results urgent">
<eqn>(Undergoing_diagnostic_tests-Negative_test_results)*(COVID_modified_percent_urgent/100)</eqn>
<non_negative/>
</flow>
<flow name="Negative test\nresults">
<eqn>Undergoing_diagnostic_tests*(Percent_negative_test_results/100)</eqn>
<non_negative/>
</flow>
<flow name="Positive test\nresults routine">
<eqn>Undergoing_diagnostic_tests-Negative_test_results-Positive_test_results_urgent</eqn>
<non_negative/>
</flow>
<aux name="Percent negative\ntest results">
<eqn>40</eqn>
</aux>
<aux name="Pre COVID percent of positive tests urgent">
<eqn>20</eqn>
</aux>
<aux name="COVID delayed percent of positive tests urgent">
<eqn>50</eqn>
</aux>
<stock name="Waiting 6mths for\ntreatment">
<eqn>500</eqn>
<inflow>Positive_test_results_routine</inflow>
<outflow>Waiting_more_than_6mths</outflow>
<outflow>Less_than_6mth_to_urgent</outflow>
<non_negative/>
</stock>
<stock name="Waiting 6 to 12mths for treatment">
<eqn>500</eqn>
<inflow>Waiting_more_than_6mths</inflow>
<outflow>Waiting_more_than_12mths</outflow>
<outflow>Between_6_to_12mth_wait_to_urgent</outflow>
<outflow>Routine_treatment_from_6_to_12th_waits</outflow>
<non_negative/>
</stock>
<aux name="COVID modified percent urgent">
<eqn>(Pre_COVID_percent_of_positive_tests_urgent*(Proceeding_to_tests_without_COVID_delay/(Delayed_demand_to_wait_for_diagnostics+Proceeding_to_tests_without_COVID_delay)))+(COVID_delayed_percent_of_positive_tests_urgent*(Delayed_demand_to_wait_for_diagnostics/(Delayed_demand_to_wait_for_diagnostics+Proceeding_to_tests_without_COVID_delay)))</eqn>
</aux>
<flow name="Waiting more\nthan 6mths">
<eqn>DELAY(Positive_test_results_routine, 26)-Less_than_6mth_to_urgent</eqn>
<non_negative/>
</flow>
<stock name="Waiting 12 to 24mths for treatment">
<eqn>100</eqn>
<inflow>Waiting_more_than_12mths</inflow>
<outflow>Waiting_more_than_2yrs</outflow>
<outflow>Between_12_to_24mth_wait_to_urgent</outflow>
<outflow>Routine_treatment_from_12_to_24mth_wait</outflow>
<non_negative/>
</stock>
<stock name="Waiting over 24mths for treatment">
<eqn>0</eqn>
<inflow>Waiting_more_than_2yrs</inflow>
<outflow>Routine_treatment</outflow>
<non_negative/>
</stock>
<flow name="Waiting more\nthan 12mths">
<eqn>DELAY(Waiting_more_than_6mths, 26)-Between_6_to_12mth_wait_to_urgent-Routine_treatment_from_6_to_12th_waits</eqn>
<non_negative/>
</flow>
<flow name="Waiting more\nthan 2yrs">
<eqn>DELAY(Waiting_more_than_12mths, 52)-Between_12_to_24mth_wait_to_urgent-Waiting_more_than_12mths-Routine_treatment_from_12_to_24mth_wait</eqn>
<non_negative/>
</flow>
<stock name="13wk wait for urgent treatment">
<eqn>(Positive_test_results_urgent+Less_than_6mth_to_urgent+Between_6_to_12mth_wait_to_urgent+Between_12_to_24mth_wait_to_urgent)*13</eqn>
<inflow>Positive_test_results_urgent</inflow>
<inflow>Less_than_6mth_to_urgent</inflow>
<inflow>Between_6_to_12mth_wait_to_urgent</inflow>
<inflow>Between_12_to_24mth_wait_to_urgent</inflow>
<outflow>Urgent_treatment</outflow>
<conveyor>
<len>13</len>
</conveyor>
</stock>
<aux name="percent becoming\nurgent by waiting time pa">
<dimensions>
<dim name="Waiting_time"/>
</dimensions>
<element subscript="Less_than_6mths">
<eqn>5</eqn>
</element>
<element subscript="Between_6_to_12mths">
<eqn>10</eqn>
</element>
<element subscript="Between_12_to_24mths">
<eqn>15</eqn>
</element>
<element subscript="Over_24mths">
<eqn>20</eqn>
</element>
</aux>
<flow name="Less than 6mth to urgent">
<eqn>(Waiting_6mths_for_treatment*(percent_becoming_urgent_by_waiting_time_pa[Less_than_6mths]/100))/52</eqn>
<non_negative/>
</flow>
<flow name="Between 6 to 12mth wait to urgent">
<eqn>(Waiting_6_to_12mths_for_treatment*(percent_becoming_urgent_by_waiting_time_pa[Between_6_to_12mths]/100))/52</eqn>
<non_negative/>
</flow>
<flow name="Between 12 to 24mth wait to urgent">
<eqn>(Waiting_12_to_24mths_for_treatment*(percent_becoming_urgent_by_waiting_time_pa[Between_12_to_24mths]/100))/52</eqn>
<non_negative/>
</flow>
<flow name="Urgent treatment">
<eqn>0</eqn>
<non_negative/>
</flow>
<aux name="Total treatment capacity">
<eqn>IF TIME>New_capacity_week_available AND COVID_switch = 1 THEN (Baseline_treatment_capacity+Post_COVID_increase_in_treatment_capacity)ELSE Baseline_treatment_capacity</eqn>
</aux>
<flow name="Routine treatment">
<eqn>Total_treatment_capacity-Urgent_treatment</eqn>
<non_negative/>
</flow>
<flow name="Routine treatment from 12 to 24mth wait">
<eqn>IF Waiting_over_24mths_for_treatment=0 THEN Total_treatment_capacity-Urgent_treatment ELSE 0</eqn>
<non_negative/>
</flow>
<flow name="Routine treatment from 6 to 12th waits">
<eqn>IF Waiting_12_to_24mths_for_treatment = 0 THEN Total_treatment_capacity-Urgent_treatment ELSE 0</eqn>
<non_negative/>
</flow>
<aux name="COVID switch">
<eqn>0</eqn>
</aux>
<aux name="Switch for demographic increase">
<eqn>0</eqn>
</aux>
<aux name="Total waiting for diagnostics or treatment">
<eqn>Waiting_6mths_for_treatment+Waiting_6_to_12mths_for_treatment+Waiting_12_to_24mths_for_treatment+Waiting_over_24mths_for_treatment+Waiting_for_diagnostics</eqn>
</aux>
<aux name="Post COVID increase in treatment capacity">
<eqn>3</eqn>
</aux>
<aux name="Pre COVID treatment capacity">
<eqn>11</eqn>
</aux>
<aux name="New capacity week available">
<eqn>208</eqn>
</aux>
<aux name="Percent reduction in treatment capacity during COVID">
<eqn>20</eqn>
</aux>
<aux name="Baseline treatment capacity">
<eqn>Pre_COVID_treatment_capacity-(COVID_switch*(COVID_period/100)*((1-(Percent_reduction_in_treatment_capacity_during_COVID/100))*Pre_COVID_treatment_capacity))</eqn>
</aux>
</variables>
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<style color="black" background="white" font_style="normal" font_weight="normal" text_decoration="none" text_align="center" vertical_text_align="center" font_color="black" font_family="Arial" font_size="10pt" padding="2" border_color="black" border_width="thin" border_style="none">
<stock color="blue" background="white" font_color="blue" font_size="12pt" label_side="top">
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</stock>
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<flow x="321.354" y="241.667" name="Incidence of condition">
<pts>
<pt x="218.333" y="241.667"/>
<pt x="424.375" y="241.667"/>
</pts>
</flow>
<aux label_side="top" x="175.565" y="196.548" name="Expected population rate of incidence pw"/>
<connector uid="1" angle="342.804">
<from>Expected_population_rate_of_incidence_pw</from>
<to>Incidence_of_condition</to>
</connector>
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<entity name="Incidence_of_condition"/>
</plot>
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<plot color="blue" isee:keep_zero_visible="true" pen_width="1" index="0" show_y_axis="true">
<entity name="Decision_not_to_present"/>
</plot>
<plot color="red" pen_style="dot_dashed" isee:keep_zero_visible="true" pen_width="1" index="1" show_y_axis="true">
<entity name="COVID_delayed_need_presenting"/>
</plot>
</graph>
<graph width="436.357" height="288.125" type="time_series" show_grid="true" isee:tick_type="none" include_units_in_legend="false" plot_numbers="false" isee:label_pie_slices="false" num_x_grid_lines="11" num_y_grid_lines="0" num_x_labels="11" num_y_labels="3" isee:fill_intensity="0.1" isee:allow_zero_axis="true" left_axis_multi_scale="false" left_axis_auto_scale="true" left_include_units="true" right_axis_multi_scale="false" right_axis_auto_scale="true" right_include_units="true">
<plot color="blue" isee:keep_zero_visible="true" pen_width="1" index="0" show_y_axis="true">
<entity name="Waiting_for_diagnostics"/>
</plot>
</graph>
<graph width="436.357" height="288.125" type="time_series" show_grid="false" isee:tick_type="none" include_units_in_legend="false" plot_numbers="false" isee:label_pie_slices="false" num_x_grid_lines="0" num_y_grid_lines="0" num_x_labels="5" num_y_labels="3" isee:fill_intensity="0.1" isee:allow_zero_axis="true" left_axis_multi_scale="false" left_axis_auto_scale="true" left_include_units="true" right_axis_multi_scale="false" right_axis_auto_scale="true" right_include_units="true">
<plot color="blue" isee:keep_zero_visible="true" pen_width="1" index="0" show_y_axis="true">
<entity name="Undergoing_diagnostic_tests"/>
</plot>
<plot color="red" pen_style="dot_dashed" isee:keep_zero_visible="true" pen_width="1" index="1" show_y_axis="true">
<entity name="Average_wait_for_diagnostic_test"/>
</plot>
</graph>
</stacked_container>
<stock x="446.875" y="240.714" name="Recognised need for GP consultation"/>
<aux label_side="left" x="553.625" y="454.946" name="COVID period"/>
<stock x="594.375" y="387.143" name="Holding stock of potential unmet need"/>
<flow x="504.313" y="384.893" name="Decision not to present">
<pts>
<pt x="448.75" y="258.214"/>
<pt x="448.75" y="384.893"/>
<pt x="571.875" y="384.893"/>
</pts>
</flow>
<stock x="843.75" y="233.75" name="Outcome of consultation"/>
<flow x="672.125" y="384.893" name="Holding stock released at end of COVID">
<pts>
<pt x="616.875" y="384.893"/>
<pt x="739.375" y="384.893"/>
</pts>
</flow>
<flow x="639.313" y="238.482" name="Need presenting as usual">
<pts>
<pt x="469.375" y="238.482"/>
<pt x="821.25" y="238.482"/>
</pts>
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<connector uid="10" angle="125.143">
<from>COVID_period</from>
<to>Decision_not_to_present</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="11" angle="47.3219">
<from>Decision_not_to_present</from>
<to>Need_presenting_as_usual</to>
</connector>
<aux label_side="left" x="423.75" y="440.759" name="Percent people not\npresenting during COVID"/>
<connector uid="13" angle="34.7393">
<from>Percent_people_not_presenting_during_COVID</from>
<to>Decision_not_to_present</to>
</connector>
<aux label_side="top" x="257.083" y="164.048" name="Underlying trend in health needs"/>
<connector uid="14" angle="309.626">
<from>Underlying_trend_in_health_needs</from>
<to>Incidence_of_condition</to>
</connector>
<aux x="771.375" y="449.25" name="Period of return in wks"/>
<flow x="946.52" y="235.625" name="Proceeding to tests without COVID delay">
<pts>
<pt x="866.25" y="235.625"/>
<pt x="1038.79" y="235.625"/>
</pts>
</flow>
<aux label_side="top" x="875.25" y="104.464" name="Percent of need\nreferred for diagnostics"/>
<stock x="1061.29" y="233.75" name="Waiting for diagnostics"/>
<aux label_side="top" x="333.083" y="79.0473" name="Net COVID induced changes in underlying health needs?"/>
<flow x="790.75" y="131.875" name="NFA following initial consultation">
<pts>
<pt x="843.75" y="216.25"/>
<pt x="843.75" y="131.875"/>
<pt x="713.75" y="131.875"/>
</pts>
</flow>
<connector uid="15" angle="172.078">
<from>Percent_of_need_referred_for_diagnostics</from>
<to>NFA_following_initial_consultation</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="16" angle="73.7644">
<from>Need_presenting_as_usual</from>
<to>NFA_following_initial_consultation</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="17" angle="32.1481">
<from>Need_presenting_as_usual</from>
<to>Proceeding_to_tests_without_COVID_delay</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="18" angle="344.692">
<from>NFA_following_initial_consultation</from>
<to>Proceeding_to_tests_without_COVID_delay</to>
</connector>
<flow x="1154.96" y="234.375" name="Undergoing diagnostic tests">
<pts>
<pt x="1083.79" y="234.375"/>
<pt x="1238.13" y="234.375"/>
</pts>
</flow>
<aux label_side="left" x="1131.88" y="169.964" name="Pre COVID capacity for diagnostics"/>
<connector uid="19" angle="289.715">
<from>Pre_COVID_capacity_for_diagnostics</from>
<to>Undergoing_diagnostic_tests</to>
</connector>
<aux label_side="left" x="883.25" y="297.821" name="Percent of unmet\nneed returning"/>
<stock x="761.875" y="384.893" name="Depleting stock of\nunmet need"/>
<flow x="827.188" y="396.25" name="Delayed need\nnot presenting">
<pts>
<pt x="784.375" y="396.25"/>
<pt x="870" y="396.25"/>
<pt x="870" y="509.375"/>
</pts>
</flow>
<flow label_side="left" label_angle="225" x="938.102" y="349.893" name="COVID delayed need\npresenting">
<pts>
<pt x="784.375" y="372.5"/>
<pt x="850" y="372.5"/>
<pt x="850" y="349.893"/>
<pt x="1038.2" y="349.893"/>
</pts>
</flow>
<connector uid="21" angle="0.492325">
<from>Percent_of_unmet_need_returning</from>
<to>COVID_delayed_need_presenting</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="22" angle="351.072">
<from>COVID_period</from>
<to>Holding_stock_released_at_end_of_COVID</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="24" angle="21.6869">
<from>Holding_stock_of_potential_unmet_need</from>
<to>Holding_stock_released_at_end_of_COVID</to>
</connector>
<stock label_side="right" x="1060.7" y="349.893" name="Outcome of consultation for delayed demand"/>
<aux label_side="right" x="1113.88" y="286.875" name="Increased percent of need\nfor diagnostics for\nCOVID delayed demand"/>
<flow label_side="left" x="1061.29" y="297.821" name="Delayed demand to wait for diagnostics">
<pts>
<pt x="1061.29" y="332.393"/>
<pt x="1061.29" y="251.25"/>
</pts>
</flow>
<flow label_side="left" x="1061.88" y="426.634" name="NFA following initial\nconsultation\nfor COVID delayed need">
<pts>
<pt x="1061.88" y="367.393"/>
<pt x="1061.88" y="506.875"/>
</pts>
</flow>
<connector uid="25" angle="313.895">
<from>Percent_of_need_referred_for_diagnostics</from>
<to>Delayed_demand_to_wait_for_diagnostics</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="26" angle="191.759">
<from>Increased_percent_of_need_for_diagnostics_for_COVID_delayed_demand</from>
<to>Delayed_demand_to_wait_for_diagnostics</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="27" angle="19.9844">
<from>COVID_delayed_need_presenting</from>
<to>Delayed_demand_to_wait_for_diagnostics</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="28" angle="334.132">
<from>Delayed_demand_to_wait_for_diagnostics</from>
<to>NFA_following_initial_consultation_for_COVID_delayed_need</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="29" angle="306.095">
<from>COVID_delayed_need_presenting</from>
<to>NFA_following_initial_consultation_for_COVID_delayed_need</to>
</connector>
<aux label_side="left" x="938.727" y="38.9643" name="Average pre COVID wait for diagnostics"/>
<aux label_side="left" x="1139.27" y="136.875" name="Reduced diagnostic capacity during COVID"/>
<connector uid="30" angle="279.14">
<from>Reduced_diagnostic_capacity_during_COVID</from>
<to>Undergoing_diagnostic_tests</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="31" angle="272.294">
<from>
<alias uid="32"/>
</from>
<to>Undergoing_diagnostic_tests</to>
</connector>
<aux x="735.125" y="856.375" name="Average wait for diagnostic test"/>
<connector uid="33" angle="10.3758">
<from>
<alias uid="34"/>
</from>
<to>Average_wait_for_diagnostic_test</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="35" angle="30.6186">
<from>
<alias uid="36"/>
</from>
<to>Average_wait_for_diagnostic_test</to>
</connector>
<aux label_side="left" label_angle="135" x="1197.5" y="52.7143" name="Percent increase in\ndiagnostic capacity post COVID"/>
<aux label_side="left" label_angle="135" x="1167.88" y="86.4643" name="Timing of new diagnostic capacity"/>
<connector uid="37" angle="265.009">
<from>Timing_of_new_diagnostic_capacity</from>
<to>Undergoing_diagnostic_tests</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="38" angle="256.819">
<from>Percent_increase_in_diagnostic_capacity_post_COVID</from>
<to>Undergoing_diagnostic_tests</to>
</connector>
<stock x="1260.63" y="234.375" name="Test results"/>
<flow label_side="top" x="1549.31" y="222.5" name="Positive test results urgent">
<pts>
<pt x="1283.13" y="222.5"/>
<pt x="1827.5" y="222.5"/>
</pts>
</flow>
<flow x="1321.56" y="248.125" name="Negative test\nresults">
<pts>
<pt x="1283.13" y="248.125"/>
<pt x="1360" y="248.125"/>
<pt x="1360" y="334.375"/>
</pts>
</flow>
<flow x="1411.46" y="233.75" name="Positive test\nresults routine">
<pts>
<pt x="1283.13" y="233.75"/>
<pt x="1539.79" y="233.75"/>
<pt x="1539.79" y="389.06"/>
</pts>
</flow>
<aux x="1280" y="334.893" name="Percent negative\ntest results"/>
<connector uid="39" angle="42.6993">
<from>Percent_negative_test_results</from>
<to>Negative_test_results</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="40" angle="330.285">
<from>Undergoing_diagnostic_tests</from>
<to>Negative_test_results</to>
</connector>
<aux label_side="right" x="1555.69" y="25.006" name="Pre COVID percent of positive tests urgent"/>
<aux label_side="right" x="1567.58" y="58.875" name="COVID delayed percent of positive tests urgent"/>
<stock label_side="bottom" x="1538.33" y="406.56" name="Waiting 6mths for\ntreatment"/>
<stock label_side="bottom" x="1745" y="406.56" name="Waiting 6 to 12mths for treatment"/>
<aux label_side="left" x="1480.83" y="127.167" name="COVID modified percent urgent"/>
<connector uid="45" angle="183.1">
<from>
<alias uid="42"/>
</from>
<to>COVID_modified_percent_urgent</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="46" angle="202.275">
<from>
<alias uid="41"/>
</from>
<to>COVID_modified_percent_urgent</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="47" angle="217.335">
<from>COVID_delayed_percent_of_positive_tests_urgent</from>
<to>COVID_modified_percent_urgent</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="48" angle="200.478">
<from>Pre_COVID_percent_of_positive_tests_urgent</from>
<to>COVID_modified_percent_urgent</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="49" angle="44.4351">
<from>Undergoing_diagnostic_tests</from>
<to>Positive_test_results_urgent</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="50" angle="305.69">
<from>COVID_modified_percent_urgent</from>
<to>Positive_test_results_urgent</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="51" angle="343.786">
<from>Negative_test_results</from>
<to>Positive_test_results_urgent</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="52" angle="184.665">
<from>Positive_test_results_urgent</from>
<to>Positive_test_results_routine</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="53" angle="23.3456">
<from>Negative_test_results</from>
<to>Positive_test_results_routine</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="54" angle="24.5615">
<from>Undergoing_diagnostic_tests</from>
<to>Positive_test_results_routine</to>
</connector>
<stacked_container uid="55" x="1266.83" y="820.833" width="350" height="250" visible_index="2">
<graph width="350" height="250" type="time_series" show_grid="false" isee:tick_type="none" include_units_in_legend="false" plot_numbers="false" isee:label_pie_slices="false" num_x_grid_lines="0" num_y_grid_lines="0" num_x_labels="5" num_y_labels="3" isee:fill_intensity="0.1" isee:allow_zero_axis="true" left_axis_multi_scale="false" left_axis_auto_scale="true" left_include_units="true" right_axis_multi_scale="false" right_axis_auto_scale="true" right_include_units="true">
<plot color="blue" isee:keep_zero_visible="true" pen_width="1" index="0" show_y_axis="true">
<entity name="COVID_modified_percent_urgent"/>
</plot>
</graph>
<graph width="350" height="250" type="time_series" show_grid="false" isee:tick_type="none" include_units_in_legend="false" plot_numbers="false" isee:label_pie_slices="false" num_x_grid_lines="0" num_y_grid_lines="0" num_x_labels="5" num_y_labels="3" isee:fill_intensity="0.1" isee:allow_zero_axis="true" left_axis_multi_scale="false" left_axis_auto_scale="true" left_include_units="true" right_axis_multi_scale="false" right_axis_auto_scale="true" right_include_units="true">
<plot color="blue" isee:keep_zero_visible="true" pen_width="1" index="0" show_y_axis="true">
<entity name="Urgent_treatment"/>
</plot>
</graph>
<graph width="350" height="250" type="time_series" show_grid="false" isee:tick_type="none" include_units_in_legend="false" plot_numbers="false" isee:label_pie_slices="false" num_x_grid_lines="0" num_y_grid_lines="0" num_x_labels="5" num_y_labels="3" isee:fill_intensity="0.1" isee:allow_zero_axis="true" left_axis_multi_scale="false" left_axis_auto_scale="true" left_include_units="true" right_axis_multi_scale="false" right_axis_auto_scale="true" right_include_units="true">
<plot color="blue" isee:keep_zero_visible="true" pen_width="1" index="0" show_y_axis="true">
<entity name="Routine_treatment"/>
</plot>
<plot color="red" pen_style="dot_dashed" isee:keep_zero_visible="true" pen_width="1" index="1" show_y_axis="true">
<entity name="Routine_treatment_from_12_to_24mth_wait"/>
</plot>
<plot color="fuchsia" pen_style="dotted" isee:keep_zero_visible="true" pen_width="1" index="2" show_y_axis="true">
<entity name="Routine_treatment_from_6_to_12th_waits"/>
</plot>
<plot color="#008F44" pen_style="dashed" isee:keep_zero_visible="true" pen_width="1" index="3" show_y_axis="true">
<entity name="Urgent_treatment"/>
</plot>
</graph>
</stacked_container>
<flow x="1635.67" y="406.56" name="Waiting more\nthan 6mths">
<pts>
<pt x="1560.83" y="406.56"/>
<pt x="1722.5" y="406.56"/>
</pts>
</flow>
<stock label_side="bottom" x="2013.33" y="404.893" name="Waiting 12 to 24mths for treatment"/>
<stock label_side="bottom" x="2234" y="403.333" name="Waiting over 24mths for treatment"/>
<flow label_side="bottom" x="1873.17" y="406.56" name="Waiting more\nthan 12mths">
<pts>
<pt x="1767.5" y="406.56"/>
<pt x="1990.83" y="406.56"/>
</pts>
</flow>
<flow x="2117.67" y="404.893" name="Waiting more\nthan 2yrs">
<pts>
<pt x="2035.83" y="404.893"/>
<pt x="2211.5" y="404.893"/>
</pts>
</flow>
<stock x="1827.5" y="205" width="97.5" height="35.8333" name="13wk wait for urgent treatment"/>
<aux x="1879.17" y="334.893" name="percent becoming\nurgent by waiting time pa"/>
<flow x="1694.58" y="264.167" name="Less than 6mth to urgent">
<pts>
<pt x="1554.17" y="389.06"/>
<pt x="1554.17" y="264.167"/>
<pt x="1835" y="264.167"/>
<pt x="1835" y="240.833"/>
</pts>
</flow>
<flow x="1807.08" y="302.5" name="Between 6 to 12mth wait to urgent">
<pts>
<pt x="1743.33" y="389.06"/>
<pt x="1743.33" y="302.5"/>
<pt x="1870.83" y="302.5"/>
<pt x="1870.83" y="240.833"/>
</pts>
</flow>
<flow x="1960.83" y="295" name="Between 12 to 24mth wait to urgent">
<pts>
<pt x="2013.33" y="387.393"/>
<pt x="2013.33" y="295"/>
<pt x="1908.33" y="295"/>
<pt x="1908.33" y="240.833"/>
</pts>
</flow>
<connector uid="56" angle="197.275">
<from>percent_becoming_urgent_by_waiting_time_pa</from>
<to>Less_than_6mth_to_urgent</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="57" angle="141.271">
<from>percent_becoming_urgent_by_waiting_time_pa</from>
<to>Between_6_to_12mth_wait_to_urgent</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="58" angle="7.50044">
<from>percent_becoming_urgent_by_waiting_time_pa</from>
<to>Between_12_to_24mth_wait_to_urgent</to>
</connector>
<flow x="2077.17" y="225" name="Urgent treatment">
<pts>
<pt x="1925" y="225"/>
<pt x="2253.33" y="225"/>
</pts>
</flow>
<aux label_side="right" x="2149.67" y="635.777" name="Total treatment capacity"/>
<flow x="2340.42" y="403.333" name="Routine treatment">
<pts>
<pt x="2256.5" y="403.333"/>
<pt x="2448.33" y="403.333"/>
</pts>
</flow>
<connector uid="59" angle="33.8894">
<from>Total_treatment_capacity</from>
<to>Routine_treatment</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="60" angle="0">
<from>Urgent_treatment</from>
<to>Routine_treatment</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="61" angle="52.5248">
<from>Waiting_6mths_for_treatment</from>
<to>Less_than_6mth_to_urgent</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="62" angle="73.5713">
<from>Waiting_6_to_12mths_for_treatment</from>
<to>Between_6_to_12mth_wait_to_urgent</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="63" angle="103.796">
<from>Waiting_12_to_24mths_for_treatment</from>
<to>Between_12_to_24mth_wait_to_urgent</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="64" angle="260.538">
<from>Positive_test_results_routine</from>
<to>Waiting_more_than_6mths</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="65" angle="309.22">
<from>Waiting_more_than_6mths</from>
<to>Waiting_more_than_12mths</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="66" angle="324.478">
<from>Waiting_more_than_12mths</from>
<to>Waiting_more_than_2yrs</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="67" angle="261.404">
<from>Less_than_6mth_to_urgent</from>
<to>Waiting_more_than_6mths</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="68" angle="316.054">
<from>Between_6_to_12mth_wait_to_urgent</from>
<to>Waiting_more_than_12mths</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="69" angle="357.955">
<from>Between_12_to_24mth_wait_to_urgent</from>
<to>Waiting_more_than_2yrs</to>
</connector>
<flow label_side="top" x="2107.58" y="530" name="Routine treatment from 12 to 24mth wait">
<pts>
<pt x="2012.5" y="422.393"/>
<pt x="2012.5" y="530"/>
<pt x="2226.67" y="530"/>
</pts>
</flow>
<connector uid="70" angle="250.608">
<from>Waiting_over_24mths_for_treatment</from>
<to>Routine_treatment_from_12_to_24mth_wait</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="71" angle="170.173">
<from>Total_treatment_capacity</from>
<to>Routine_treatment_from_12_to_24mth_wait</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="72" angle="356.73">
<from>
<alias uid="73"/>
</from>
<to>Routine_treatment_from_12_to_24mth_wait</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="74" angle="85.7474">
<from>Routine_treatment_from_12_to_24mth_wait</from>
<to>Waiting_more_than_2yrs</to>
</connector>
<flow x="1838.83" y="521.667" name="Routine treatment from 6 to 12th waits">
<pts>
<pt x="1746.67" y="424.06"/>
<pt x="1746.67" y="521.667"/>
<pt x="1955" y="521.667"/>
</pts>
</flow>
<connector uid="75" angle="163.109">
<from>
<alias uid="73"/>
</from>
<to>Routine_treatment_from_6_to_12th_waits</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="76" angle="201.38">
<from>Total_treatment_capacity</from>
<to>Routine_treatment_from_6_to_12th_waits</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="77" angle="66.342">
<from>Routine_treatment_from_6_to_12th_waits</from>
<to>Waiting_more_than_12mths</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="78" angle="223.95">
<from>Waiting_12_to_24mths_for_treatment</from>
<to>Routine_treatment_from_6_to_12th_waits</to>
</connector>
<aux x="301.482" y="384.893" name="COVID switch"/>
<connector uid="79" angle="16.9541">
<from>COVID_switch</from>
<to>Decision_not_to_present</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="80" angle="229.268">
<from>
<alias uid="81"/>
</from>
<to>Undergoing_diagnostic_tests</to>
</connector>
<aux label_side="right" x="344.167" y="117.5" name="Switch for demographic increase"/>
<connector uid="82" angle="259.589">
<from>Switch_for_demographic_increase</from>
<to>Incidence_of_condition</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="83" angle="343.496">
<from>Incidence_of_condition</from>
<to>Decision_not_to_present</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="84" angle="24.6149">
<from>Incidence_of_condition</from>
<to>Need_presenting_as_usual</to>
</connector>
<aux label_side="right" x="1614.58" y="660.5" name="Total waiting for diagnostics or treatment"/>
<connector uid="85" angle="346.792">
<from>
<alias uid="86"/>
</from>
<to>Total_waiting_for_diagnostics_or_treatment</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="87" angle="351.765">
<from>
<alias uid="88"/>
</from>
<to>Total_waiting_for_diagnostics_or_treatment</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="89" angle="7.275">
<from>
<alias uid="90"/>
</from>
<to>Total_waiting_for_diagnostics_or_treatment</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="91" angle="24.5377">
<from>
<alias uid="92"/>
</from>
<to>Total_waiting_for_diagnostics_or_treatment</to>
</connector>
<aux x="2095.17" y="735" name="Post COVID increase in treatment capacity"/>
<aux x="2273" y="759" name="Pre COVID treatment capacity"/>
<connector uid="93" angle="42.1766">
<from>Post_COVID_increase_in_treatment_capacity</from>
<to>Total_treatment_capacity</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="95" angle="2.04541">
<from>
<alias uid="96"/>
</from>
<to>Total_treatment_capacity</to>
</connector>
<aux label_side="left" x="1991.33" y="741" name="New capacity week available"/>
<connector uid="97" angle="11.5576">
<from>New_capacity_week_available</from>
<to>Total_treatment_capacity</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="98" angle="9.0665">
<from>
<alias uid="99"/>
</from>
<to>Total_waiting_for_diagnostics_or_treatment</to>
</connector>
<aux label_side="right" x="2345" y="640" name="Percent reduction in treatment capacity during COVID"/>
<aux x="2227" y="697" name="Baseline treatment capacity"/>
<connector uid="102" angle="126.87">
<from>Baseline_treatment_capacity</from>
<to>Total_treatment_capacity</to>
</connector>
<connector uid="103" angle="104.534">