diff --git a/Algorithm/QCAlgorithm.Indicators.cs b/Algorithm/QCAlgorithm.Indicators.cs index da2faf1c059a..a94e6820de25 100644 --- a/Algorithm/QCAlgorithm.Indicators.cs +++ b/Algorithm/QCAlgorithm.Indicators.cs @@ -955,6 +955,26 @@ public HeikinAshi HeikinAshi(Symbol symbol, Resolution? resolution = null, Func< return heikinAshi; } + /// + /// Creates a new Hurst Exponent indicator for the specified symbol. + /// The Hurst Exponent measures the long-term memory or self-similarity in a time series. + /// The default maxLag value of 20 is chosen for reliable and accurate results, but using a higher lag may reduce precision. + /// + /// The symbol for which the Hurst Exponent is calculated. + /// The number of data points used to calculate the indicator at each step. + /// The maximum time lag used to compute the tau values for the Hurst Exponent calculation. + /// The resolution + /// Function to select a value from the BaseData to input into the indicator. Defaults to using the 'Value' property of BaseData if null. + /// The Hurst Exponent indicator for the specified symbol. + [DocumentationAttribute(Indicators)] + public HurstExponent HE(Symbol symbol, int period, int maxLag = 20, Resolution? resolution = null, Func selector = null) + { + var name = CreateIndicatorName(symbol, $"HE({period},{maxLag})", resolution); + var hurstExponent = new HurstExponent(name, period, maxLag); + InitializeIndicator(hurstExponent, resolution, selector, symbol); + return hurstExponent; + } + /// /// Creates a new Hilbert Transform indicator /// diff --git a/Indicators/HurstExponent.cs b/Indicators/HurstExponent.cs new file mode 100644 index 000000000000..4e41d93c4cb3 --- /dev/null +++ b/Indicators/HurstExponent.cs @@ -0,0 +1,164 @@ +/* + * QUANTCONNECT.COM - Democratizing Finance, Empowering Individuals. + * Lean Algorithmic Trading Engine v2.0. Copyright 2014 QuantConnect Corporation. + * + * Licensed under the Apache License, Version 2.0 (the "License"); + * you may not use this file except in compliance with the License. + * You may obtain a copy of the License at http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0 + * + * Unless required by applicable law or agreed to in writing, software + * distributed under the License is distributed on an "AS IS" BASIS, + * WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or implied. + * See the License for the specific language governing permissions and + * limitations under the License. +*/ + +using System; +using System.Collections.Generic; + +namespace QuantConnect.Indicators +{ + /// + /// Represents the Hurst Exponent indicator, which is used to measure the long-term memory of a time series. + /// - H less than 0.5: Mean-reverting; high values followed by low ones, stronger as H approaches 0. + /// - H equal to 0.5: Random walk (geometric). + /// - H greater than 0.5: Trending; high values followed by higher ones, stronger as H approaches 1. + /// + public class HurstExponent : Indicator, IIndicatorWarmUpPeriodProvider + { + /// + /// A rolling window that holds the most recent price values. + /// + private readonly RollingWindow _priceWindow; + + /// + /// The list of time lags used to calculate tau values. + /// + private readonly List _timeLags; + + /// + /// Sum of the logarithms of the time lags, precomputed for efficiency. + /// + private readonly decimal _sumX; + + /// + /// Sum of the squares of the logarithms of the time lags, precomputed for efficiency. + /// + private readonly decimal _sumX2; + + /// + /// Initializes a new instance of the class. + /// The default maxLag value of 20 is chosen for reliable and accurate results, but using a higher lag may reduce precision. + /// + /// The name of the indicator. + /// The period over which to calculate the Hurst Exponent. + /// The maximum lag to consider for time series analysis. + public HurstExponent(string name, int period, int maxLag = 20) : base(name) + { + if (maxLag < 2) + { + throw new ArgumentException("The maxLag parameter must be greater than 2 to compute the Hurst Exponent.", nameof(maxLag)); + } + _priceWindow = new RollingWindow(period); + _timeLags = new List(); + + // Precompute logarithms of time lags and their squares for regression calculations + for (var i = 2; i < maxLag; i++) + { + var logTimeLag = (decimal)Math.Log(i); + _timeLags.Add(i); + _sumX += logTimeLag; + _sumX2 += logTimeLag * logTimeLag; + } + WarmUpPeriod = period; + } + + /// + /// Initializes a new instance of the class with the specified period and maxLag. + /// The default maxLag value of 20 is chosen for reliable and accurate results, but using a higher lag may reduce precision. + /// + /// The period over which to calculate the Hurst Exponent. + /// The maximum lag to consider for time series analysis. + public HurstExponent(int period, int maxLag = 20) + : this($"HE({period},{maxLag})", period, maxLag) + { + } + + /// + /// Gets the period over which the indicator is calculated. + /// + public int WarmUpPeriod { get; } + + /// + /// Indicates whether the indicator has enough data to produce a valid result. + /// + public override bool IsReady => _priceWindow.IsReady; + + /// + /// Computes the next value of the Hurst Exponent indicator. + /// + /// The input data point to use for the next value computation. + /// The computed Hurst Exponent value, or zero if insufficient data is available. + protected override decimal ComputeNextValue(IndicatorDataPoint input) + { + _priceWindow.Add(input.Value); + if (!_priceWindow.IsReady) + { + return decimal.Zero; + } + + // Sum of log(standard deviation) values + var sumY = 0m; + + // Sum of log(lag) * log(standard deviation) + var sumXY = 0m; + + foreach (var lag in _timeLags) + { + var mean = 0m; + var sumOfSquares = 0m; + var count = Math.Max(0, _priceWindow.Size - lag); + // Calculate the differences between values separated by the given lag + for (var i = 0; i < count; i++) + { + var value = _priceWindow[i + lag] - _priceWindow[i]; + sumOfSquares += value * value; + mean += value; + } + + var standardDeviation = 0.0; + // Avoid division by zero + if (count > 0) + { + mean = mean / count; + var variance = (sumOfSquares / count) - (mean * mean); + standardDeviation = Math.Sqrt((double)variance); + } + + // Compute log(standard deviation) and log(lag) for the regression. + var logTau = standardDeviation == 0.0 ? 0m : (decimal)Math.Log(standardDeviation); + var logLag = (decimal)Math.Log(lag); + + // Accumulate sums for the regression equation. + sumY += logTau; + sumXY += logLag * logTau; + } + + // Number of time lags used for the computation + var n = _timeLags.Count; + + // Compute the Hurst Exponent using the slope of the log-log regression. + var hurstExponent = (n * sumXY - _sumX * sumY) / (n * _sumX2 - _sumX * _sumX); + return hurstExponent; + } + + /// + /// Resets the indicator to its initial state. This clears all internal data and resets + /// + public override void Reset() + { + _priceWindow.Reset(); + base.Reset(); + } + } +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/Tests/Indicators/HurstExponentTests.cs b/Tests/Indicators/HurstExponentTests.cs new file mode 100644 index 000000000000..bab8a8eddb23 --- /dev/null +++ b/Tests/Indicators/HurstExponentTests.cs @@ -0,0 +1,45 @@ +/* + * QUANTCONNECT.COM - Democratizing Finance, Empowering Individuals. + * Lean Algorithmic Trading Engine v2.0. Copyright 2014 QuantConnect Corporation. + * + * Licensed under the Apache License, Version 2.0 (the "License"); + * you may not use this file except in compliance with the License. + * You may obtain a copy of the License at http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0 + * + * Unless required by applicable law or agreed to in writing, software + * distributed under the License is distributed on an "AS IS" BASIS, + * WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or implied. + * See the License for the specific language governing permissions and + * limitations under the License. +*/ + +using System; +using NUnit.Framework; +using QuantConnect.Indicators; + +namespace QuantConnect.Tests.Indicators +{ + [TestFixture] + public class HurstExponentTests : CommonIndicatorTests + { + protected override IndicatorBase CreateIndicator() + { + return new HurstExponent("HE", 252, 20); + } + protected override string TestFileName => "spy_hurst_exponent.csv"; + + protected override string TestColumnName => "hurst_exponent"; + + [Test] + public void DoesNotThrowDivisionByZero() + { + var he = new HurstExponent(2); + var date = new DateTime(2024, 12, 2, 12, 0, 0); + + for (var i = 0; i < 10; i++) + { + Assert.DoesNotThrow(() => he.Update(date, 0m)); + } + } + } +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/Tests/QuantConnect.Tests.csproj b/Tests/QuantConnect.Tests.csproj index 3255f586bf4f..c1f7ddb31a05 100644 --- a/Tests/QuantConnect.Tests.csproj +++ b/Tests/QuantConnect.Tests.csproj @@ -612,6 +612,9 @@ PreserveNewest + + PreserveNewest + diff --git a/Tests/TestData/spy_hurst_exponent.csv b/Tests/TestData/spy_hurst_exponent.csv new file mode 100644 index 000000000000..6412dfa37d27 --- /dev/null +++ b/Tests/TestData/spy_hurst_exponent.csv @@ -0,0 +1,1002 @@ +date,close,hurst_exponent +19980102 00:00,973600, +19980105 00:00,977500, +19980106 00:00,966300, +19980107 00:00,964700, +19980108 00:00,957800, +19980109 00:00,924700, +19980112 00:00,940600, +19980113 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