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elephaint committed May 3, 2024
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4 changes: 2 additions & 2 deletions nbs/docs/getting-started/1_introduction.ipynb
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"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"**Get started with our [QuickStart guide](/getting-started-timegpt_quickstart), walk through tutorials on the different capabilities, and learn from real-world use cases in our documentation.**"
"**Get started with our [QuickStart guide](/docs/getting-started-timegpt_quickstart), walk through tutorials on the different capabilities, and learn from real-world use cases in our documentation.**"
]
},
{
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"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"<img src=\"https://github.com/Nixtla/nixtla/blob/main/nbs/img/timegpt-arch.png?raw=true\" alt=\"Figure 1. TimeGPT architecture\">"
"<img src=\"https://github.com/Nixtla/nixtla/blob/main/nbs/img/timegpt-arch.png?raw=true\" alt=\"Figure 1. TimeGPT architecture\" />"
]
},
{
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473 changes: 27 additions & 446 deletions nbs/docs/getting-started/2_quickstart.ipynb

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2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion nbs/docs/getting-started/3_setting_up_your_api_key.ipynb
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"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"<img src=\"https://github.com/Nixtla/nixtla/blob/main/nbs/img/api_key_process.png?raw=true\" alt=\"Figure 1. API key set up process\">"
"<img src=\"https://github.com/Nixtla/nixtla/blob/main/nbs/img/api_key_process.png?raw=true\" alt=\"Figure 1. API key set up process\" />"
]
},
{
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4 changes: 2 additions & 2 deletions nbs/docs/getting-started/7_faq.ipynb
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"\n",
"In addtion, we are currently developing a self-hosted version of `TimeGPT`, tailored for the unique security requirements of enterprise data. This version is currently in beta. If you are interested in exploring this option, please contact us at [email protected].\n",
"\n",
"</detaila>"
"</details>"
]
},
{
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"<summary><strong>Error message: Too many requests</strong></summary>\n",
"\n",
"``` python\n",
"ApiError: status_code: 429, body: {'data': None, 'message': 'Too many requests', 'details': 'You need to add a payment method to continue using the API, do so from https://dashboard.nixtla.io', 'code': 'A21', 'requestID': 'NCJDK7KSJ6', 'support': 'If you have questions or need support, please email [email protected]}\n",
"ApiError: status_code: 429, body: {'data': None, 'message': 'Too many requests', 'details': 'You need to add a payment method to continue using the API, do so from https://dashboard.nixtla.io', 'code': 'A21', 'requestID': 'NCJDK7KSJ6', 'support': 'If you have questions or need support, please email [email protected]'}\n",
"```\n",
"\n",
"**Solution:** This error occurs when you have exhausted your free credits and need to add a payment method to continue using `TimeGPT`. You can add a payment method in the `Billing` section of your [dashboard](https://dashboard.nixtla.io/).\n",
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10 changes: 5 additions & 5 deletions nbs/docs/tutorials/07_loss_function_finetuning.ipynb
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"\\\n",
"**Mean absolute error (MAE)**\\\n",
"\\\n",
"<img src=\"https://latex.codecogs.com/svg.image?\\mathrm{MAE}(\\mathbf{y}_{\\tau}, \\mathbf{\\hat{y}}_{\\tau}) = \\frac{1}{H} \\sum^{t+H}_{\\tau=t+1} |y_{\\tau} - \\hat{y}_{\\tau}|\">\n",
"<img src=\"https://latex.codecogs.com/svg.image?\\mathrm{MAE}(\\mathbf{y}_{\\tau}, \\mathbf{\\hat{y}}_{\\tau}) = \\frac{1}{H} \\sum^{t+H}_{\\tau=t+1} |y_{\\tau} - \\hat{y}_{\\tau}|\" />\n",
"\n",
"- Robust to outliers\n",
"- Easy to understand\n",
Expand All @@ -316,7 +316,7 @@
"\n",
"**Mean squared error (MSE)**\\\n",
"\\\n",
"<img src=\"https://latex.codecogs.com/svg.image?\\mathrm{MSE}(\\mathbf{y}_{\\tau}, \\mathbf{\\hat{y}}_{\\tau}) = \\frac{1}{H} \\sum^{t+H}_{\\tau=t+1} (y_{\\tau} - \\hat{y}_{\\tau})^{2}\">\n",
"<img src=\"https://latex.codecogs.com/svg.image?\\mathrm{MSE}(\\mathbf{y}_{\\tau}, \\mathbf{\\hat{y}}_{\\tau}) = \\frac{1}{H} \\sum^{t+H}_{\\tau=t+1} (y_{\\tau} - \\hat{y}_{\\tau})^{2}\" />\n",
"\n",
"- You want to penalize large errors more than small ones\n",
"- Sensitive to outliers\n",
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"\n",
"**Root mean squared error (RMSE)**\\\n",
"\\\n",
"<img src=\"https://latex.codecogs.com/svg.image?\\mathrm{RMSE}(\\mathbf{y}_{\\tau}, \\mathbf{\\hat{y}}_{\\tau}) = \\sqrt{\\frac{1}{H} \\sum^{t+H}_{\\tau=t+1} (y_{\\tau} - \\hat{y}_{\\tau})^{2}}\">\n",
"<img src=\"https://latex.codecogs.com/svg.image?\\mathrm{RMSE}(\\mathbf{y}_{\\tau}, \\mathbf{\\hat{y}}_{\\tau}) = \\sqrt{\\frac{1}{H} \\sum^{t+H}_{\\tau=t+1} (y_{\\tau} - \\hat{y}_{\\tau})^{2}}\" />\n",
"\n",
"- Brings the MSE back to original units of data\n",
"- Penalizes large errors more than small ones\n",
"\n",
"**Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)**\\\n",
"\\\n",
"<img src=\"https://latex.codecogs.com/svg.image?\\mathrm{MAPE}(\\mathbf{y}_{\\tau}, \\mathbf{\\hat{y}}_{\\tau}) = \\frac{1}{H} \\sum^{t+H}_{\\tau=t+1} \\frac{|y_{\\tau}-\\hat{y}_{\\tau}|}{|y_{\\tau}|}\">\n",
"<img src=\"https://latex.codecogs.com/svg.image?\\mathrm{MAPE}(\\mathbf{y}_{\\tau}, \\mathbf{\\hat{y}}_{\\tau}) = \\frac{1}{H} \\sum^{t+H}_{\\tau=t+1} \\frac{|y_{\\tau}-\\hat{y}_{\\tau}|}{|y_{\\tau}|}\" />\n",
"\n",
"- Easy to understand for non-technical stakeholders\n",
"- Expressed as a percentage\n",
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"\n",
"**Symmmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE)**\\\n",
"\\\n",
"<img src=\"https://latex.codecogs.com/svg.image?\\mathrm{SMAPE}_{2}(\\mathbf{y}_{\\tau}, \\mathbf{\\hat{y}}_{\\tau}) = \\frac{1}{H} \\sum^{t+H}_{\\tau=t+1} \\frac{|y_{\\tau}-\\hat{y}_{\\tau}|}{|y_{\\tau}|+|\\hat{y}_{\\tau}|}\">\n",
"<img src=\"https://latex.codecogs.com/svg.image?\\mathrm{SMAPE}_{2}(\\mathbf{y}_{\\tau}, \\mathbf{\\hat{y}}_{\\tau}) = \\frac{1}{H} \\sum^{t+H}_{\\tau=t+1} \\frac{|y_{\\tau}-\\hat{y}_{\\tau}|}{|y_{\\tau}|+|\\hat{y}_{\\tau}|}\" />\n",
"\n",
"- Fixes bias of MAPE\n",
"- Equally senstitive to over and under forecasting\n",
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2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion nbs/docs/tutorials/08_cross_validation.ipynb
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"source": [
"The `cross_validation` method within the `TimeGPT` class is an advanced functionality crafted to perform systematic validation on time series forecasting models. This method necessitates a dataframe comprising time-ordered data and employs a rolling-window scheme to meticulously evaluate the model's performance across different time periods, thereby ensuring the model's reliability and stability over time. The animation below shows how TimeGPT performs cross-validation.\n",
"\n",
"<img src=\"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/Nixtla/statsforecast/main/nbs/imgs/ChainedWindows.gif\" alt=\"Rolling-window cross-validation\"> \n",
"<img src=\"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/Nixtla/statsforecast/main/nbs/imgs/ChainedWindows.gif\" alt=\"Rolling-window cross-validation\" /> \n",
"\n",
"Key parameters include `freq`, which denotes the data's frequency and is automatically inferred if not specified. The `id_col`, `time_col`, and `target_col` parameters designate the respective columns for each series' identifier, time step, and target values. The method offers customization through parameters like `n_windows`, indicating the number of separate time windows on which the model is assessed, and `step_size`, determining the gap between these windows. If `step_size` is unspecified, it defaults to the forecast horizon `h`. \n",
"\n",
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15 changes: 14 additions & 1 deletion nbs/docs/tutorials/13_bounded_forecasts.ipynb
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"We use the [annual egg prices](https://github.com/robjhyndman/fpp3package/tree/master/data) dataset from [Forecasting, Principles and Practices](https://otexts.com/fpp3/). We expect egg prices to be strictly positive, so we want to bound our forecasts to be positive. "
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"id": "0fa6759e",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"::: {.callout-note}\n",
"You can install `pyreadr` with `pip`:\n",
" \n",
"```shell\n",
"pip install pyreadr\n",
"```\n",
":::"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
"id": "31b1e602-f8ee-49c4-8819-fcc093d64ab1",
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"!pip install pyreadr\n",
"import pyreadr\n",
"from pathlib import Path\n",
"\n",
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14 changes: 14 additions & 0 deletions nbs/docs/tutorials/14_hierarchical_forecasting.ipynb
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"Using the `aggregate` function from `HierarchicalForecast` we can get the full set of time series."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"id": "86609206",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"::: {.callout-note}\n",
"You can install `hierarchicalforecast` with `pip`:\n",
" \n",
"```shell\n",
"pip install hierarchicalforecast\n",
"```\n",
":::"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": null,
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4 changes: 2 additions & 2 deletions nbs/docs/use-cases/2_bitcoin_price_prediction.ipynb
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{
"data": {
"text/markdown": [
"[![](https://colab.research.google.com/assets/colab-badge.svg)](https://colab.research.google.com/github/Nixtla/nixtla/blob/main/nbs/docs/use_cases/1_forecasting_web_traffic.ipynb)"
"[![](https://colab.research.google.com/assets/colab-badge.svg)](https://colab.research.google.com/github/Nixtla/nixtla/blob/main/nbs/docs/use-cases/2_bitcoin_price_prediction.ipynb)"
],
"text/plain": [
"<IPython.core.display.Markdown object>"
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],
"source": [
"#| echo: false\n",
"colab_badge('docs/use_cases/2_bitcoin_price_prediction')"
"colab_badge('docs/use-cases/2_bitcoin_price_prediction')"
]
},
{
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160 changes: 0 additions & 160 deletions nbs/index.ipynb

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6 changes: 1 addition & 5 deletions nbs/mint.json
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"url": "https://github.com/Nixtla/nixtla"
},
"navigation": [
{
"group": "",
"pages": ["index.html"]
},
{
"group": "Getting Started",
"pages": [
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"docs/capabilities/forecast/longhorizon.html",
"docs/capabilities/forecast/multiple_series.html",
"docs/capabilities/forecast/finetuning.html",
"docs/capabilities/forecast/custom_loss_functions.html",
"docs/capabilities/forecast/custom_loss_function.html",
"docs/capabilities/forecast/cross_validation.html",
"docs/capabilities/forecast/prediction_intervals.html",
"docs/capabilities/forecast/irregular_timestamps.html"
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1 change: 0 additions & 1 deletion nbs/sidebar.yml
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sidebar:
collapse-level: 1
contents:
- index.ipynb
- text: "--"
- section: "Getting Started"
contents: docs/getting-started/*
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