Can I drop a file here that plots state graphs?

[philgoetz]

I foolishly wrote my own code to plot the state data before looking here and seeing code to do that already written.

My Python is terrible and my graphs ugly, but my code adjusts for the number of tests performed per day, and then estimates the fraction of people in each state infected with covid-19 on that day, assuming that there is a constant fraction of people who have covid-19 symptoms despite not having covid-19, and that this fraction is roughly the fraction of people who had the swine flu in the 2008 and 2009 flu season (which I found data for; this is not for the swine flu pandemic in late 2009-2010). That is, it assumes that the negative cases are people who have some ordinary flu. This calculation will give bad results as states begin testing more asymptomatic people.

This approach shows that fraction as having levelled off in states with low population densities at around 1% of the population. The states with large populations all have data too noisy to graph nicely, but generally appear to have around twice as large a fraction of cases and to be growing faster. The only state showing rapid growth at present is Oklahoma, and that's only the last 5 datapoints.

I'm very unsatisfied with the state-level analyses, since big cities and countryside are completely different. I plan to do county-level analysis of New York tomorrow.

May I post the code here? Perhaps in a new subdirectory?

I'm attaching a couple of sample graphs.