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Apocalypse Dynamics

Free library for simulating the Apocalypse according to the world model of the "Limits to growth". This is an updated version of the world models serie created by a MIT group of researchers.

Library description

Using a methodology developed by pioneering systems-scientist Jay Forrester, and under the supervision of Dennis Meadows , a group of researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology produced the first Report to the Club of Rome. Considered a classic in the sustainability movement, "The Limits to Growth" was the first study to question the viability of continued growth in the human ecological footprint.

The ApocalypseDynamics library permits users to model a sustainable future according to the principles of system dynamics originated by J.W. Forrester in the 1960's. The field of system dynamics is well established, hence, the novelty and value of this library is not to be seen in the modeling principles of system dynamics themselves, rather, in the combination of system dynamics modeling with the Apocalypse predicament.

Modelica has object-oriented programming, multi-formalism and physical modeling capabilities. The ApocalypseDynamics library will benefit of the collaborative development of new features and back-tests of the models.

The documentation is included in the source code package.

Roadmap

• ApocalypseDynamics 2020 will be based on SystemDynamics Version 2.1. It will be primarily updated with the latest 2010s data regarding demography, natural resources stocks, food supply, industrial production, economic development, pollution.
• ApocalypseDynamics 2021 will be based on ApocalypseDynamics version 2020. It will be primarily updated in order to update the "world 2020" model with a new set of data regarding energy production, fossil fuel stocks, renewable energies supply
• ApocalypseDynamics 2022 will be based on ApocalypseDynamics version 2021. It will be primarily updated in order to update the "world 2021" model with a new set of data regarding the greenhouse gas pollution and the climate change's negative impact on food production, industrial production, population growth.
• ApocalypseDynamics 2023 will be based on ApocalypseDynamics version 2022. It will be primarily updated in order to update the "world 2022" model with a new set of data regarding the biodiversity loss and its negative impact on food production, industrial production, population growth.
• ApocalypseDynamics 2024 will be based on ApocalypseDynamics version 2023. It will be primarily updated in order to update the "world 2023" model with a new set of data regarding the Paris agreement global limits on CO2 emissions.
• ApocalypseDynamics 2025 will be based on ApocalypseDynamics version 2024. It will be primarily updated in order to update the "world 2024" model taking into account the Sustainable Development Goals' target scenariis from the United Nations organization.
• ApocalypseDynamics 2026 will be based on ApocalypseDynamics version 2025. It will be primarily updated in order to update the "world 2025" model with a new scenario. This is the optimal scenario for a sustainable future. This is the ultimate scenario before World War III.
• ApocalypseDynamics 2027 will be based on ApocalypseDynamics version 2026. It will be primarily updated in order to split the "world 2026" model on a country basis.

Previous releases

• SystemDynamics v2.1 (2013-10-16)
  • SystemDynamics 2.1 is based on SystemDynamics Version 2.0 that was developed by Prof. Cellier and his students, and has been primarily updated in order for it to work with MSL 3.2.1. The diagrams have been corrected from the old graphical definitions and some icons have been added.
• Version v2.0 (2007-09-13)
  • SystemDynamics 2.0 constitutes a completely reworked release of the SystemDynamics library. This version is based in part on Version 1.0, and in part on a different and independently created version of a System Dynamics library for Dymola/Modelica, a version that had been developed by Prof. Cellier and his students at the University of Arizona, and had been around in a much reduced form since 2001.
• Version v1.0 (2002-04-09)
  • SystemDynamics 1.0 constituted the first official release of the SystemDynamics library. That version was created by Stefan Fabricius in 2002, at a time when Stefan worked as a Ph.D. student at ETH Zurich.

License

This Modelica package is free software and the use is completely at your own risk; it can be redistributed and/or modified under the terms of the [Modelica License 1.1](SystemDynamics 2.1/Resources/ModelicaLicense1.1.txt).

Development and contribution

Corresponding Author: Arnaud Dorthe

Other Main Author: Prof. François Cellier, Dr. Stefan Fabricius, Prof. Dennis L. Meadows, Prof. Donella H. Meadows, Dr. Jorgen Randers, Dr. William W. Behrens III, Dr Roger F. Naill, Prof. Jay W. Forester, Alexander King, Aurelio Peccei, Thomas Malthus, Jesus of Nazareth, The Maya